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What's the forecast dividend yield on AAZ shares, with an assumption of flat Gold prices (conservative, I know)?
Longer term the company has Zafar to be developed in 2022. I have Zafar delivering a maiden 3,000 ounces of gold in Q4 for 2022 with gold ounces overall at around 52,000 ounces in 2022. Copper should yield $22M revenue and assuming 500,000 ounces for silver at say $10M revenue. Gold at $1700 average delivers $88M. Although revenue may be up $12M on previous years the inflation cost on AISC are probably $10M. Therefore the share price range should compare with previous years as the bottom line is similar. The company has two resource and reserves outputs in 2022. The first is from Gilar in late Q1. Other properties add further to reserves and resources later in the year replacing mined out output. Consequently $1875 gold price should yield 128p area and $2000 should deliver a 148p share price. These metrics allow for $8M on replacement Capex spend outside of Zafar and other planned mining development.
Added on 106.7p.
I have a value range of 128p-148p on AAZ at 1700 gold.
Partly country risk, partly a board that view the share price as not important and therefore don't shout about the company. However, that board have put in their own money into the company, spend years of their lives building it and their relationships with the government and now have a profitable company, with cash in the bank and some huge prospects for the future. Short term things may not move but eventually this will come good in a big way.
Can’t see interest rates going much higher as it would cause a nightmare scenario. Inflation isn’t that bad and will likely drop after the current spike so a temporary problem. Gold has a huge amount of paper these days so is no longer the pure asset it once was. Crypto has become the alternative for gold and is taking away potential allocation to that category. So I don’t see gold tearing away but likely range bound for the while.
Aaz is however frustrating and I guess Azerbaijan risk premium keeps it low.
Olderandwiser, POG about to reverse sharply higher, will be around $2300 in less than 6 months but not confident it already exceeds previous high this year. This is sit and wait time, and it won't go up in a straight line.
Its because of the impending interest hikes.You know the ones they can't afford to do because everyone and everything is in so much debt.Its just all smoke and mirrors but hard to stomach
Can anyone please explain why, with all this inflation coming down the line, the POG is heading south again?
@gavster its been stuck at $1860 all morning ... I guess we will see some fresh buyers at 14:00 when US opens
ATB APR
@Gavster No consolation but my other Gold positions are reacting (or not) in the same way as if the market does not think POG rise is sustainable ... go figure US CPI YoY @6.2% ... nothing 'Transitory' about that !
ATB APR
Talk about slow to react to gold price movements, on a breakout at $1860 as I type.
IMO the rises in AAZ are usually sharp and large when they happen, a leap to 140 would be in tune here.
@Dartron AAZ is a steady, no drama polymetallic producer with very good growth prospects AND a dividend. Short term drama will be driven by POG ... which has just broken downtrend @$1,830 today following US CPI of YoY 6.2% vs. 5.8% expected. So nothing Transitory about the Inflation coming through which will feed through to POG in due course once IIs start reallocating capital.
ATB APR
Hope your right Tony. Bought in a few weeks back, bit underwhelming so far.
Added. Will not be able to get it under 140p by end of next week. Gold, silver and copper all going gangbusters.
Hopefully this lot will get a concession news soon. I think AZ government have missed an opportunity with COP26 taking place. The world will need a lot of copper for climate protection.