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Wile, greed? I'm afraid I'm not greedy for this atm, not in the near future. And I have no obligation to return (lready put it into PHD and BCN couple weeks back). But, never say never.
I'm gutted that I swallowed the company guff for so long. That said, emotionally, still 'invested' in this and am learning from the experience. Reading the rns' and beween the lines is good practice for the next investment. Plus seeing the fall just confirms I was right to take my funds out in the low 5s, however late in the day. But there's obviously a discussion to be had about when a turning point might materialise and what timeframe, if at all.
But greed assumes i'm trying to force the share down, which I'm not. I'd say the BoD deserve the opprobrium more, infinitely more.
Bennyson, you've already confessed to taking a big hit here and have sold out to get as cheap an entry as possible. Clearly you are upset, and clearly you still see massive upside or you wouldn't be here. I appreciate your honesty, but don't let greed get the better of you or you'll end up getting caught out and paying a premium to the price you sold at. It's really poor form to troll the company to gain a cheaper entry by spreading hysteria.
Am I reading this wrong from the finals or is there another update I've missed as I've taken it that they're drilling the Djeno then the Mengo once Djeno's flowing to enhance production further? Haven't taken it as an either/or just a change of priorities caused by the unstable plug and excitement over the Djeno flowing to surface already?
Stage Two - Not only did the drilling of TLP-103C show a 26-metre column in the Mengo Sands (the "Mengo") but also found 13 metres of oil columns across new horizons between the R3 and the Mengo. The current plan is to perforate the well at the Mengo and/or Pointe Indienne R1/R2 reservoir once the Djeno drill has been completed. This should further increase daily production, with a positive effect on cash flows and asset value. Should the Djeno sidetrack be unsuccessful at both depths, the Company plans to perforate the well at the Mengo and/or Pointe Indienne R1/R2 reservoir, as these reservoirs continue to provide the Group with a strong alternative to increased daily production, cash flow and profitability.
Tiburn, you keep repeating the same thing, that it's Djeno instead of Mengo... and I keep repeating the same thing: it should be Mengo AND Djeno. Mengo was meant to fund the Djeno drill, for which holders arere now going through a miserable funding episode.
Who would've cared if we hadn't started drilling Djeno until 2020 if the sp was 15p and we were making money instead of diluting the sp once more and kicking the shareprice in the nuts?
I added exactly because of Mengo's intended production. Djeno was for another time... I don't understand the urgency and I question this apparent 'change of mind' as, more than ever, hiding an upalatable truth somewhere. But that's irrelevant now... but if Djeno is now the only target then, in spite of the neighbours 5000 per day and all the other positives, the hsare has been pointlessly damaged by the change fo mind and is still unresolved. The sp' been thrown under the bus and is at least 60% down on the last placing price and, arguably, 80% down on where it would be if Mengo had produced.
Personally, not a fan of the binary nature of Djeno being the only game in town. While the rewards could be spectacular so is the downside, as we're witnessing. And, tbh, AAOG now has a miserble reputation generally, among pi's and the market. They didn't believe the ramping and they don't trust Sefton. Ge's made AAOG part of the PREM, AST, VAST stable of basket cases with a few loyal (and very in-the-red) supporters.
Was a very different story only a month ago.
I daresay it'll turn at some point, though wheter it's, for now, just a trader's plaything or something more genuine is another matter.
There are many PI who know every aspect of the Company. Some may be unsure on certain aspects, so as AAOG are under heavy Troll attack, It may be useful to post the objective fact based reality of key issues - there is no agenda beyond spreading the truth, check the statements made for yourself.
So why did Mengo production not go ahead, was it a broken promise? AAOG could be in production right now instead of a placing and are still not booking oil, the SP is very low.
It was a change of direction as Djeno oil came to surface past the concrete plug, it just had to be evaluated , was found to be high API Djeno sweet light crude - the original dream target of the company, with only a 25% chance of success assigned pre spud. AAOG hit 12m of this upper level target - there wouldn't be oil in the upper level if there wasn't oil in the middle, there is every reason to be hopeful.
Then two independents evaluated the reservoir (by CPI), summary ratified by a third company - the consensus was that the Djeno reservoir found is between good to excellent quality.
All adjacent Djeno wells (within 25km , same geology) produce at least 5000 bopd - all of them.
Mengo stabilises after 1 year production down to 300 bopd Djeno is proven to be sustained prod at 5000 bopd for many years
So what does that mean in revenue terms?
WELL TLP-103C MENGO/R2 APPROACH • Assume that the Mengo stimulation was done and production had started in May 2019 as was the original plan of action • Prod for period May 2019 to Oct 2020 at peak 1500 bopd = 750k barrels • Year 2 - Oct 2020 to Oct 2021 - Mengo well stabilises at 300bopd = 100k barrels in period • Total Mengo production in assessment period is 850k barrels, at $65 a barrel, after tax, PSA at 56% to AAOG = $20 million revenue earned by Oct 2021 by the Mengo approach
WELL TLP-103C DJENO APPROACH • Assume sidetrack is done and in production by Oct 2019 • Prod for Oct 2019 to Dec 2020 at 2000 bopd = 160k barrels total • Topside infrastructure assumed to be built in this 3 month period. • Then Jan to Oct 2020 prod increased to approx 5,000 bopd as per adjacent Djeno wells =Total in Year 1 = 1.5m barrels • Year 2 Oct 2020 to Oct 2021 = 1.65m barrels in period • Total Djeno prod in two year period assessed is 3.15m barrels, at $65 a barrel, after tax, PSA at 56% to AAOG = $74 million revenue earned by Oct 2021 by Djeno approach
Therefore $20m or $74 m sustained revenue in the early critical period of field development. The decision has been made by AAOG with very good reason - Djeno is targeted for production.