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Why did Paul Forrest pump a large amount of money into this company and take a place on the board for us to remain a shell company?
Surely he wants a return on his money as we do.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/the-eight-tory-leadership-candidates-battling-to-replace-boris-johnson-as-next-prime-minister/ar-AAZwkbW
"the Foreign Secretary signalled that she would cut corporation tax, "
Liz Truss among the eight leading prime minister candidates left, promissed reduction of corporation tax.
May be we are not finished as yet.
The discussion on Angs has gone very quiet!
With the best will in the world, I can't imagine that nobody is interested in the high tax losses. I still believe that we are a takeover candidate. So many millions are too tempting!
I still hope we are not completely finished.
On ANGS bulletin board someone reported a wellhead pressure of 440 psi for SFB. Previously I calculated the sxpected wellhead pressure to be 778 psi in my post 163. It is nearly half what I expected in my calculation. Why?????
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/19/windfall-tax-seriously-flawed-says-north-sea-oil-and-gas-producer-energy-rishi-sunak?ref=biztoc.com&curator=biztoc.com
In todays Sunday guardian, the chancellor is dictating:
"Companies are not allowed to reduce the tax with losses made in previous years or money spent on decommissioning North Sea oil platforms."
Sorry to hear that, good luck.
You should’ve gone to speck save (:-))
Sorry that should’ve been ANGS
We appear to be a shell company with no connection to AANG . Am I missing something .
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ANGS/update-on-commissioning-at-saltfleetby/15489253
The Company updates on progress on its commissioning schedule at Saltfleetby. With all equipment necessary to export sales gas now on site, the process has been handed over to commissioning specialists. Whilst the last of the electrical and mechanical tie-ins are being completed early next week, they will continue with hydrotesting (already largely complete,) nitrogen leak testing, final verification and function testing of all pressure equipment and finally live gas testing with well-head gas. This exercise is not wholly sequential as there is considerable overlap of function testing and leak testing.
Contractors are working toward a target date for first flow of well-head gas through the plant during the week commencing 20 June 2022 with first export (i.e. sales) nominations the week following. Angus looks forward to providing updates via Twitter, Linked-In and RNS Reach on detailed progress through the remainder of the commissioning sequence
The Company is also pleased to announce that it has concluded all preparatory risk assessment and planning for the forthcoming side-track at Saltfleetby and has advised suppliers of a spud date for drilling of 21 July 2022.
Angus Market Cap £15m
The Net Present Value (NPV) for Saltfleetby reservoir was calculated to be £250m based on gas price of £2.24/therm.
As the gas price now is £1.60/therm, The new NPV is 250 x 1.6 / 2.24 = £179m.
No of bags Angus is capable to produce 179/15 = 12 bags
The gas price is forecasted to go much higher in the future.
Irish you refer to Mr Forrest buying Angus for a £1,
BHS was bought for a £1 by a dodgy character and is no more.
I'll leave that thought with you.
Saltfleetby is already a substantially depleted field. It’s true that flow rates can be quite high for the first month or two when a well is reactivated but the flow rate normally falls back after a month or two to a more sustainable rate, as I understand it. The fact remains that from 2026, the rate falls off dramatically, just in time for the hedges to end. Most of any profit from Saltfleetby gas is going to Mercuria, not to Angus. To confuse the gas field with Angus itself is wrong.
In the CPR those rates were calculated (by the computer) against a wellhead pressure of 90psi. I f this wellhead pressure is reduced to say 20psi those flowrate could increase substantially. Also in the North sea the general trend is that the reserves of any fields tend to increase with time as more data and informaion become available. This is why reserves are reported as P90....P50.
Note: I an not invested in Angus.
The CPR states that all data were supplied by Angus and that Oilfield hasn’t checked them.
Gazprom could have completed the plant years ago, when the Theddlethorpe terminal closed and they would have done it more cheaply. But with gas prices as they were, they’d have made no money on it. The recent rise in the gas price was forecast by no one at the time, as far as I know. The problem for Angus Is that they grossly underestimated the cost of completing the project and had to accept an usurious loan, with hedge contracts built into it. With the rise in the gas price, unless Angus get the plant working on schedule and in the volumes required by the hedge contracts, they’re either going to go bust or they’ll have to have placing after placing to keep going. It’s a simple as that. If they manage to get It producing properly in time and to drill a successful sidetrack on time after that, investors in Angus will make a multiple of their investment.
The production profiles presented in the 2021 CPR (produced by Oilfield International) could only have been produced by reservoir simulation, ie digitalization of the resevoir into the computer. I could not see that Oilfield International has done this work. So it must have been produced by the original operator Gasprom. They thew it away and paid abandonment cost on top of it when the gas price was low.
Have a look at p.44 of the CPR. A very large drop-off in 2026. The CPR assumed first gas in mid-March. If Angus don’t get it finished by mid-July, they’re likely to be in difficulty. But overall, the CPR schedule should only be 3 months out, by Angus's reckoning. All the data in these CPR tables are provided by Angus.
Wasn’t the 25% windfall tax Rishi Sunak’s stated policy suggestion?
" the CPR P90 assumes quite a rapid dwindling in production after the first 3-4 years."
The following is CPR 2021:
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
PAGE 45 shows P90 sales gas rate vs time for the year 2022-2038 for the developement plan of 2wells plus a sidetrack. There is still plenty of gas to produce and plenty of revenues to be generated. As there was a delay in first gas the plot must be shifted to the right by one year.
As for windfall tax I thought the Government disagreed with the plan.
..re the tax losses. Didn’t the draft 25% windfall tax provisions announced the other day state that historical tax losses could not be used to offset against profits on oil and gas? I don’t know if I’ve got this right but if I have, I can’t see much point in Angus acquiring AAOG. By the time the tax is removed, Angus will have produced much of the gas remaining in the field - the CPR P90 assumes quite a rapid dwindling in production after the first 3-4 years. With the SEL losses, they’ll have plenty.
Petroleum1: yes, I’ve seen those posts. I think that if Mr. Forrest thinks the game’s up, then Lord Lucan must suspect it is as well. This deal so far hasn’t changed the situation for Angus dramatically. They’ve given him £250,000, written off a debt owed to Angus and he’s sold his first 91mm tranche of Angus shares for £1mm or so. It looks as if Aleph may have sold many of their first tranche as well, though it’s also possible that Aleph’s clients have lodged their shares with their own custodians so they’re not included in the Aleph % holding declaration. Angus has got £3mm from Aleph - with another £3mm to come, as long as shareholders approve the increase in authorised share capital at the EGM. But the work is way behind schedule, the regulatory permissions are not yet in place and the crucial sidetrack may require suspension of gas production before it can be drilled. Any combination of these things could bankrupt Angus. Lord Lucan will know all this at least as well as Mr. Forrest does. This deal won’t make any difference to the outcome and very little difference to shareholders. It merely gets Mr. Forrest out with a nice profit on his involvement with Saltfleetby.
Oofy Prosser
On Angus bulletin board, there are skeptics who say how come Paul Forest sold SEM at this particular time. He must know the project is going to fail and he bail out because he knows someething we dont. But also Lucan knows the project just as good and he paid him £4.5 in cash and a big share in the combined entity.
Petroleum1: you write as if there were no time constraint. If Angus have not got Saltfleetby into production at least by the first week of July, the monthly forward sales (hedge) contracts with Mercuria are likely to cost them a lot of money. If the sidetrack isn’t drilled successfully by October, the higher rate of production demanded by the forward sales contracts for nine months from then are unlikely to be met. This will cost Angus even more. There is an interest payment and a debt repayment each of about £1.5mm to be met by the end of September. There are likely to be some very big further share issues next month, including conversion of Knowe’s £1.4mm. convertible. So more dilution without a cash infusion. If Angus can’t meet their debt service payments, it will be an event of default, triggering the charge provisions on the £12mm. debenture. The recent share issue to Aleph raised £3mm. This appears to be needed to meet cost overruns. The second £3mm placing money is subject to shareholder approval and also appears to be earmarked for spending on the sidetrack etc. So they may not be able to use the cash to be raised this way to meet the debt requirements. Or they may be raising this money to meet the debt service payments but don’t want not say so. And if the share price on 13 June (the date of the EGM) is below the issue price of the second tranche of shares to be placed with Aleph, there’s no guarantee Angus will get the money. And if they’re not producing gas in enough volume in time to meet the hedges, the higher the gas price goes the greater their losses will be.
It may work, they may surprise sceptics like me but these are the risks here and they’re substantial.
Oofy Prosser
You are talking about operational problems that can be resolved . These happen in all companies all the time. What is important here is that Angus has assets that are in demand and can be commercialsed in the near future. Not a lot of company have that. AAOG offer tax allawance of £42m. This is more than market cap of both ANGS and SEL combined. The only correct course of action is to reverse AAOG into the combined entity. Lucan has never worried about diluting share holders before. Why should he worry now. I hope I am not wrong here. I was not wrong before when I said ANGS and SEL should combine in one entity. Have a good weekend all.
Petroleum1: if you believe Lord Lucan, that they can have Saltfleetby in production this month and the sidetrack drilled and producing 5mmscfd by the start of October, Angus will be a great investment. Sadly, nothing he’s said since he was appointed Interim MD in early 2109 has happened as he said it would. It’s all been very late and way over budget. I can’t see any chance of gas production this month and they haven’t got permission yet to drill the sidetrack while gas is flowing in the pipes from the existing wells. They haven’t even got the EA approval which they said would be given by mid-December last year. Then there’s HSE and NG approval. After they’ve finished the welds and the electrical works. They may not be producing gas before August. Saltfleetby has turned into a valuable asset but who will benefit?
What have 500mm. AAOG shares got to do with Angus?