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Any update from Oofy on this Angs RNS data fits with his projections?
Petroleum
I think even Starmer was able to come up with this idea 6 months before Sunak!
"EU targets €140bn from windfall taxes on energy companies"
https://www.ft.com/content/c936d529-4223-4983-980c-0e4251ed1297
This article is behind a paywall. What is so intereting about it is that it was the idea of the British ex Chanceller Rishi Sunac who pioneered taxing energy companies. One of his ideas also was to stop tax losses from being transferred from one company to another. I hope this is not bad news to AAOG.
Petroleum1: so you're taking as fact the ramping of an unidentified Twitter user, are you? The single compressor currently on site is rated at 5mmscfd. Production will need to rise significantly above its current flow rate to avoid another loss, on the September hedge. They’ve got big debt service payments this month, and have to maintain a large cash float under the terms of the Debenture Charge. They haven’t got money for a sidetrack, even if they’re allowed to drill one while operating the existing plant. We don’t know the terms on which Mercuria have allowed Angus to defer their existing large debts on the missed July and August hedge contracts. This incompetent Angus management has just added two very competent senior people, one a non-executive Director, the other a hands-on Executive. Others think this means Angus is going places. I believe they’ve been put in by the senior lender, who are on the other side of the hedge contracts.
I calculated the existing revenue for ANGS at a gas flowrate of 5mmscf/d to be £51,000 /d excluding condensate of 50 b/d.
Also Sunday blog of oilman jim, Malcom Rees reported the following:
"Angus Energy (ANGS) announced Saltfleetby flow rates: from well A4 of 4 million cubic feet of gas per day and over 4.5 million cubic feet of gas per day from well B2. Current capacity to process gas is 4.6 million cubic feet per day and the aim is to raise this process capacity, such that in the coming days the plant will reach a minimum steady state of 5.5 million cubic feet of gas per day, which would meet the company's hedge obligations for the fourth quarter. !Stabilised condensate production also has started at around 50 barrels per day. "
From Twitter
https://twitter.com/mgrahamwood/status/1568652617366278144?s=46&t=_LNRGJl0ivhk0bxK64Hm2g
"- 2nd compressor online this month"
They will be very short of money at the end of this month if they don’t have a placing. I can’t see where in this statement it says they’ll have a second compressor in place by the end of September. They’re at Mercuria’s mercy. The two new Angus executives were most likely appointed by Mercuria and are reporting to Mercuria, who appear to be able to exercise their Charge and acquire Angus at will.
If this were looking so good, why has none of the Directors bought any shares in the past year? Why have insiders been selling into the rise?
OofyProsser
In yesterday 's RNS the last paagraph read:
"The Company intends to advise production figures, together with an update on the installation of the second compressor, at the end of this month and thereafter the Company expects to report production figures quarterly."
It probably mean "an update " at the end of the month. They would not be short of money to buy one.
Where did you read that they’re installing the second compressor at the end of the month?
News in brief:
"Angus Energy PLC - oil and gas development company operating in England - Says it has achieved flow rates from well A4 of 4 million standard cubic feet per day at around 55 bar and over 4.5 million from well B2 at around 45 bar. Well A4 is at the Saltfleetby gas field in Lincolnshire, England.
Taken together, says this "greatly exceeds" the 2017 combined shut-in rate of 5 million from the wells.
Says that it has been running the process plant at an effective throughput of 3.3 million on average for the last three days which has risen from 500,000 at the beginning of operations. Adds that it aims is to raise this process capacity, and reduce the incidence of commissioning trips, so that the plant will reach a minimum steady state of 5.5 million or greater. This will "comfortably" meet the company's hedge obligations for quarter four."
I beleive that the flowrate can be increased by lowering wellhead pressures.
THE BOTTLENECK HERE IS THE SECOND COMPRESSOR WHICH WILL BE INSTALLED AT END OF MONTH.
Well, I wish you luck with it, it would be nice if something good happened for the AAOG shareholders.
It’s possible also that the NSTA has had a look at the accounts of Angus and is not impressed. These new Board appointments could result in the exit of the current Chairman and MD. the new men would impress the regulator more. i can’t see such people accepting roles at Angus without large cash incentives and guarantees. Angus isn’t in a position to offer them either. The only company involved with Angus that could is Mercuria. Why would they want to leave the ownership of Angus with the current shareholders, when their Debenture Charge entitles them to take Angus over if they fail to meet certain financial requirements. There’s £5mm of debt service charges due soon, on top of the invoices for the cost overruns and a month of hedge deferment - as well as a second month’s worth which may or may not qualify for a deferment. I know they’re getting excited on the Angus chat site but there remain very big risks here.
OofyProsser
Iam expecting the flowrate for the second well to be comparable to the first as shown in page 5 of the history pesented by the company.
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-Dec19.pdf
Also I will be watching next week the live flowrate data of the two wells in the National Grid.
https://gasdata.nationalgrid.com/InstantaneousView
I am almost sure that this will come good.
As I have 4 million shares in AAOG and there is high probabilty it combine with ANGS there is no point of me buying into ANGS.
The high caliber of the new directors indicate the importance that Saltfleetby has become to the country whether for energy security or gas storage capacity.
Petroleum1: yes, those two new Directors are far bigger hitters than the present Board members, they must be on a promise. Who’s in a position to promise them anything? Not Lord Lucan, whose position is looking very shaky with the appointment of Richard Herbert to an executive directorship encompassing all the gas and oil assets. It looks as if Mercuria has put them in. Read into that what you will.
Two dirctors were appointed today. The first one is Krzysztof Zielicki who
" was Vice President for M&A and Strategy." in BP and Rosneft. Also a well informed poster on the other board said talk of takeover is taking place now at Angus board. I am hoping some good news will emerge for AAOG.
mmafr
Angus Market cap is now £44m. To add to it £42m from AAOG would not be a bad idea For Mr Forest who is a nember of the board directors at Angus.
The NPV for Angus now based on the present gas price of 567p/therm
P90= £417m
P60=£731m
The gas price is still rising.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
A lot of revenue will be generated at Angus and AAOG tax allowance of £42m will become useful.
However to me now remain the question of when to buy into Angus. I missed the uppurtunity to buy below 1 p.
Now, could this have an impact on AAOG? Lets cross our fingers....
Commissioning Update at Saltfleetby
Angus Energy (AIM: ANGS) is pleased to announce that the Company's site operations team, with supporting specialists, has now introduced and processed well head gas throughout the combined extraction and condensate processing facility.
Well B2 has alone been delivering at an equivalent rate of 5 million standard cubic feet per day, surpassing the Company's internal expectations, although we expect deliverability to normalise with time. The Company will introduce the stream from the A4 well shortly.
The stream has been passed through the whole process plant including condensate stabilisation and storage tanks as well as gas analysis. Specification gas has been achieved in short tests to date as has an export pressure of approximately 60 barg sufficient for entry into the national transmission system, or "grid"
The Company will make nominations for gas sales when it is satisfied of stable flow, uninterrupted by electronic trips, for an extended period of time being not less than 8 hours continuous flow which we strongly believe will occur before the end of August thereby meeting the current deadline under the Company's revised hedge arrangements as notified on 29 July 2022.
Irish
We are approaching the finish line. If ANGS succeed we will combine and start trading. If ANGS fails (I do not beleive so)
we will find another revenue generating entity and combine with and we also start trading.
B_A_B_A
As I see it, our future in AAOG is closely dependent on the success of ANGS. If ANGS succed we will be part of the outfit.
Our director Mr Forest is also the directorof ANGS who will be able to use the £42m of the tax losses into ANGS future revenue. Mr Forest could have reversed AAOG into any entity that generate revenue some2-3 years ago but did not. Why ? because he want to combine it with ANGS. I want ANGS to succeed so that AAOG can combine with it and we start trading. Thak you for pointing this out.
Is this AAOG Chatboard or ANGS?
I was going to buy at 0.6-0.8p but I did not. Some negative posters on the other site changed their stance to positve dependent on success of sidetrack. Lord Lugan must know some people with money who can step in. It all depend on what is happening at the well site. They should update people on the progress but they do not. I am hoping nothing serious they are encountering.
Petroleum1: apart from the fact that Angus has £5mm of debt service costs to pay the Lenders soon, from cash resources that they don’t currently possess, the loan is not their big problem: the big problem is the hedge contracts, on which they already owe something like £6mm, by my calculation, and possibly more. If they get the plant working at capacity in the first week and a half of September, they’ll break even that month, possibly a bit better. Thereafter, however, the increased volume from 1 October required by the hedge schedule cannot be achieved from the existing wells, so further big losses will be incurred that month. From November, they need a successful sidetrack to enable them to meet the requirements of the hedges. They haven’t currently got enough money to pay for a sidetrack, by my calculation and a sidetrack from that well is not certain to find the necessary volume of gas. Mercuria will be in a position to take Anguish over at any time if Mercuria want to.
This is AIM, though, anything can happen and investors are capable of deluding themselves for extended periods, so the price in the short term is not reliably predictable. Good luck with it if you’ve bought some.
OofyProsser
I used NPV (Net Present Value) numbers in the CPR. I am assuming that they have taken everything into account.
In any case when you \have a PRESENT NPV of the following magnitude,
NPV P90 = £387m
NPV P50 = £678m
and rising , Mercuria debt of £11 m become irrelevant. I am going back to the CPR and try to see if I can find out more information.
Yes, Petroleum1, it wasn’t very clear, sorry about that.
Have you taken into account the sums owed on the hedges to Mercuria, in your calculations?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62604653
Interesting llink. Uk has much less storage caacity than anybody else. Rough field had shown leakage to surroundind areas . In my view this could be attributed to overpressurizing( cant take any more gas to store ) or rupture in the seal.
SFB is cheap to co convert to storage being onshore. I understand that some £2.5billion is being allocated to upgrade the Rough system.