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Indeed wasnhers that is certainly one opinion and one that I personally subscribe to BUT I am not sure that all investors will be similarly persuaded of that approach....
CrustyPete if someone invested for the possibility of 2019 drill then they would have done their research and know that selling now will be at a loss. Far better to hold rather than go rainbow chasing. There is still news on license to come, no one is sure when so to be out when that lands would be a mistake IMO
News before 30th on drill is also a possibility.
JB has gained some momentum over the summer to date, although not enough surety yet for the market to assign any SP value and encourage investment:
- DS has resigned and JB in control
- Drill Funding is secured - AAOG have moved from planning to operations
- All technical team in place for substantial field development
- Detailed sidetrack and field production plan finalised
- Wire Group must have completed the pre drill prep activity
- Ideal Rig identified and agreement made - start date to be confirmed any day up to Nov 30th
- PSA licence terms confirmation must be soon if talks were held in Oct
- Reserves based lending term agreement - sidetrack success releases $25m funding
But what if the rig only free in April instead of January?
Would JB just wait for 5 months ? The share will be utterly moribund in that period.
After he found the oil (normally the hard part) JB has been fighting through technical analysis on approach, resolving AAOG mistakes and finance issues, wading through Congo beaurcracy - all to get to this point - drill ready, all planning done, rig identified - then........wait 5 more months? and this is the best rig option?
I just don't see how he could possibly entertain this April start, if at all viable in any form he has to drill with another rig earlier, bwdik - or perhaps he is considering another approach?
Is it possible to stimulate Mengo/Rzones now, then go back in April, make good, and then drill Djeno in this well hole as planned for sidetrack?
If not, then produce from Mengo and just start TLP-104 in April with the RBL funding and revenue in the meantime.
The longer term strategic finances are one thing waiting for the Djeno target, but surely enough is enough now.
Hindsight is a great thing - but if this option is done, it should have been actioned in April this year, but who knew?
except Sardy and BC :)
Well Washers my viewpoint is slightly different. There will be many holders that bought expecting a 2019 spud, or close to it, who are now underwater and holding on hoping for confirmation before the end of November that the spud will be in Q1. If they get it they will likely hlld on. If they get the opposite, that the spud is likelyvto be in Q2 they may well not!! Biye the bullet and take the hit with a view to buying back in 4/5 months time.
The alternative is to sit and warch their loss escalte over the intervening period. Unless you believe TipTops view that there will be a number of materially positive announcements in the unterim? There are a few possibilities but will any of them be sufficient to stem the tide?
Just look at volumes. They are incredibly small and MMs dropping it on any net sell volume. In other words nobody is selling big time and cause is mainly ISA funding which we all know about. This will swing rapidly the other way when rig date confirmed (hopefully Q1 - which we will know by end of Nov). Remember a few weeks ago somebody bout a few multiples of 100k shares and we shot up nearly 20%. This will remain volatile until something substantive is known, but serious investors should remember Miton recently bought in at 5.2p. As an investment fund of some standing, one would hope they knew what they were doing and would have been well appraised of plans before throwing in a few million pounds.
I think most are aware of the possibility and that is the reason for the drop on Friday. It is mainly reflected already in the SP therefore if confirmed there will not be much more of a decline.
However if it does turn out the rig is available for January will see an instant rerate IMO
Last RNS was nothing more than an holding statement to take pressure of for rest of the month. First week in December will be next one saying rig on contract till end March 2020 so earliest spud date will be mid April.
Licence news won't be till January IMO, just a hunch.
Meanwhile back in red territory for yet another day.
Slow motion stuff here, nothing happening yet drifting down on fresh air
Thanks, Tiburn - that's an excellent summary.
maybe they just wanted an extra 12 months salary
In finals Jun 28th it stated:
“SNPC acknowledges the full amount of the debt and has stated its intention to meet its obligations over the coming months at a rate that will extinguish the amount owing by the end of the current licence period – in July 2020. “
They made a payment later that day for $850k:
“This is the fourth and largest such consecutive monthly payment received from SNPC and will be applied towards the Company's ongoing working capital requirements. SNPC has confirmed that it will continue to make payments on a monthly basis “
SNPC then default on this written arrangement immediately, no payments in July, Aug, Oct and now Nov to date – they met every payment each month from Feb-Jun before. So only one $600k Sep payment in the last 5 months, lost receipts of upto $3m in period, which couldn't be relied upon, but may have caused some delays in securing a rig.
If SNPC had met their stated intentions in June to continue to pay each month, in increasing amounts, it could be argued that JB would have contracted one of the rig companies for start in November, despite high mob fees and potentially no availability for further back to back drills.
SNPC may have offered the rig as full repayment write for at lower cost offset over a year of drilling, as negotiated in the PSA talks that should have taken place in October, this SFP rig news on Nov 12th correlates in timing.
AAOG have the rigs exclusive use for four further drills back to back, now Anglo have the RBL term facility ready to pay for it in full without SNPC payment contribution and following sidetrack success, this could well be the best rig option in country, in financial, technical specification and strategic field development terms, for AAOG and for SNPC to contribute and retain 44% or similar, given their poor cash reserve circumstances.
SNPC basically align much closer with Anglo in any scenario - a default circumstance being as they have no other drilling elsewhere for a year with their preferred rig, all their exploration and development eggs are in the AAOG basket for the coming year.
The journey to book this sidetrack has been both convoluted and mysterious.
RNS Aug 5th
“The Company has identified two suitable drilling rigs, both currently situated in the Republic of the Congo, which have drilling slots available this year. The company is evaluating commercial offers from both rig companies and will update the market once the chosen rig is contracted.”
RNS Sept 11th
“The Company's management continue discussions with the operators of two potential rigs, both currently situated in the Republic of the Congo, with a view to securing a drilling slot during November.”
RNS Sept 27th
“Negotiations are ongoing with two potential rig providers, both of which have rig units in the Republic of the Congo. The Company is also scouting for other units with minimal mobilisation charges as a fallback option.”
RNS Nov 12th
“We are very pleased to have entered into the Rig Agreement and look forward to commencing operations at TLP-103C-ST as soon as the Rig becomes available. The Rig is the most suitable rig available in country”
AAOG had two commercial offers, were having discussions with the two drillers, which then became negotiations with both – it doesn’t appear one was shortlisted, they then decided to look around for another rig with lower mobilisation charges.
From this it could perhaps be concluded that both commercial offers had high mobilisation costs, which they would not reduce in negotiations, AAOG didn’t like the overall costs.
and/or the rigs were not available for the further four drills plan, as outlined in the Term RBL facility RNS, so JB didn't book either of them.
As Skittish has outlined, the key could be SNPC, their payments status, the ramifications of being a 44% partner and the eventual rig actually sourced being via their subsidiary SFP.
JODO Now that was a beginners deramp.
SP gapped down to 2.10p bid with a c30% spread now settled at 2.30p on the bid with a 20% spread should be a warning not to buy the stock as the mms maximise commission either way.
If SNPC is going to make a payment it should be notified this week if not , the chances are they won't be paying this month either.
With regard to the ISA (Rf etc., selling down) they take commission of 1p+ per share , I think that is the case because their is no sales shut off point except the end of the 110million deal when all shares are sold.
So the hole in the finances shortfall continues to grow and will soon be beyond the point of no return in that further funding will have to be found.
Also as others mention the interest in this stock is near zero such apathy causes any good news to be muted.
As for the list of shares misogynistic stalker posted he forgot to mention that they went way up before they went down, a lot of investors made money by taking profits possibly by adjusting tight Sls upwards as the sp rose, so not sitting and watching the sp fall away.
Also any risk share is closely monitored prior mention.
You say you’ve gambled on here from 11p down.
Further on you say you have earned about the price decline from 20p down...
Why, if you warned about a decline all the way down from 20p, did you invest at 11p?
If you’ve kept buying to get your average down to 11p, why? If as you say you’ve warned this decline would happen then that’s throwing good money after bad
I’m happy to keep the faith; I don’t have much alternative since I’ve gambled here from 11p down.
It’s still hard to refute this from oilman Jim:
Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG) reported that it has entered into a rig option agreement, but the rig might not be available until 30 March 2020. Unfortunately, November turned out to be the date for a rig agreement, not the rig arriving as investors had hoped. The problem for them though is that paying for the drill depends on Riverfort selling shares at a higher price than now and how does that situation come about? Slippery language isn't working anymore for these Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG) reported that it has entered into a rig option agreement, but the rig might not be available until 30 March 2020. Unfortunately, November turned out to be the date for a rig agreement, not the rig arriving as investors had hoped. The problem for them though is that paying for the drill depends on Riverfort selling shares at a higher price than now and how does that situation come about? Slippery language isn't working anymore for these companies and I see only one way for the Anglo African share price now, which is to decline further. I’ve been warning about this one all the way down from just under 20p and the shares hit an all time low of 2.4p on Fridacompanies and I see only one way for the Anglo African share price now, which is to decline further. I’ve been warning about this one all the way down from just under 20p and the shares hit an all time low of 2.4p on Frida
while very comprehensive (and admirable in many ways) they're far too supportive of a buy position. i don't mind asthere have been dozens, if not hundreds of similar posts trying to justify the sp and the words used in statements.
are they valuable? not really... a pi spending their time doing the kind of research that, if released by the company might well benefit the sp seems a pointless use of time.
in the end, one only has to view the number of shares and trades that go through each day... there is just no interest or appetite for this share. the silence from the company , at this point, doesn't imspire confidence of imminent good news... the opposite, rather.
the company seems to be in the weakest position ever... and the only folk who seem interested in buying shares are thos who have to believe in a positive future and are therefore averaging down (yet again) or out and out punters who fancy a grand national flutter on an outsider.
the licencing news will need to be very specific in its details and very positive... and very soon. another week of nothing and this could easily see it drop below 2p.
the lows are lower, the highs are lower too... not a great case for new investors.
i trust there'll be something very positive to come soon.
Skittish you say and I quote “And we're valued at £9.5M.”
Is that a teency weency bit of a ramp....not like you at all.
Just to follow up earlier - this is what the half year report stated -
"Negotiations are ongoing with two potential rig providers, both of which have rig units in the Republic of the Congo. The Company is also scouting for other units with minimal mobilisation charges as a fallback option."
I'm thinking SFP #1 is the fallback option with the minimal mobilisation charges - why would they be minimal (normally I would think $1M+) - because SFP will not charge for mobilisation as part of the payment for the money we are owed by SNPC.
The only catch is we have to wait between 3 - 6 months.
The SFP rig is important for another reason - it will be crewed largely by Congolese - SNPC is the means by which the Congolese obtain experience and expertise for their domestic workforce.
So if TLP-103C-ST actually does come up with the first land based Djeno producer it will be a big feather in their cap - and for the domestic workforce and for SFP and SNPC.
Politically that would be very important.
And on the Mengo/Djeno decision it wasn't all our decision to take - we only own 56%, the rest is SNPC, and they don't have a share price to worry about.
And as for the drilling pad that has appeared recently at Pointe Indienne, 7km from us, this will be the first drill on that field for at least 10 years, maybe even 20 years. PI is operated by African Oil and Gas Corporation which is owned by ex SNPC head Denis Gokana, also a friend of President Sassou-Nguessu.
Maybe there is a bit of race on to get down to the land based Djeno, as whoever gets there first would go down in Congolese oil drilling history as having the first big land based producer. No one ever remembers who was second.
And we still don't know where New Age will be drilling, but there is a good chance it will be within a few km of Tilapia and they too will be going for the Djeno.
And we're valued at £9.5M.
Skittish, thanks nice rig but alas no lights.
I think the Mengo/Djeno argument was done to death a while ago. I was surprised also when they went for the Djeno over the Mengo - whilst the Djeno is (probably) the better long term project cash flow is king and we are suffering greatly for that now.
Maybe the Mengo wasn't actually that easy to develop or the difficulties with the leaking plug made it more difficult (or more risky) with a less powerful work over rig.
As to the share price it is clearly crippled. I got the impression there was a big seller on Friday (apart for the funds) selling 1M+, clearly not enamoured by the prospects of a wait of 3 to 6 months - and probably betting that on past performance the wait would be 6 months.
But the 12/11/19 RNS actually states -
"The SFP #1 Rig (the "Rig") is the subject of contractual commitments to a super-major which will expire on 30 December 2019. SFP may extend such contractual commitments until (but not beyond) 30 March 2020 and will notify AAOG on or before 30 November 2019 as to whether its contractual commitments have been extended."
So the super major commitment is only to to 30/12/19 - and it is SPF that can extend to 30/3/20 - not the super major. I would have thought it was the other way round - but that isn't what the RNS says.
Where is the rig now? Well the only SM's in Congo are Total and Eni. Total is offshore, and the only major Eni field is M'Boundi around 20km east of Tilapia. So my bet is it is there - but spotting it may be difficult - and Plantlabs is more restrictive these days.
And why use this SPF #1 rig? Why not go for a rig that is available earlier? Well SNPC, whose subsidiary SPF is, still owe us £4.7M or around $5.6M. It would seem unreasonable that we would have to pay full whack for the rig ultimately owned by SNPC when they owe us $ millions. So maybe there is is quid pro quo going on here. This is the SPF home page -
7000 metres! Surely not downwards - the Djeno is only 2500 metres, and Vandji just below 3000 metres. But if you wanted to do a bit of directional drilling under the sea for TLP-104 etc (or indeed elsewhere) then 7000 metres may come in useful.
And if you go up a page on the above link you come to SONAREP, another SNPC subsidiary. Several mentions on there of Tilapia, which is where SONAREP first started. Which brings us back to the Gerard Bougoin/SNPC/President Sassou-Nguesso relationship which goes back years. Tilapia is important to SNPC as it has a real stake and say there (44%), as opposed the the other fields where it just has a carried 15% - aside from the struggling MKB field, where it is operator. So Tilapia was and remains a bit of a flagship for them.
And slide 26 of this presentation shows "our" rig SNP #1
Slide 13 shows the eastern limit of Tilapia indicating TLP-103ST will be as close to our boundary as you can get, and as close to the fault line as we can get.
So SNPC and SPF and SONAREP all have a stake in Tilapia being a success. And no coincidence that we are using their rig - their only rig.
"The Rig is the most suitable rig available in country" - yes - but suitable for what reasons?
Will we be drilling in Q1 or Q2? I don't know. But it is very much in the interests of SNPC to make a success of this and they are now very much locked into the success of TLP-103ST.
Are they paying for the rig, or defraying fees? Again I don't know - but interesting that we should have waited so long for their rig. And the MR 8000 is the largest rig that can be transported on land.
The present day sellers obviously aren't prepared to wait 3-6 months, and the share price is excruciating, but if you are prepared to take a slightly longer view then this can still meet the expectations of earlier this year.
I'm positioning accordingly - 3 months/6 months it doesn't really matter in the great scheme of things.
And other things can happen in the interim.
Same here Sardy. Said that from the moment this discussion of Mengo vs Djeno started. Prudent management would go for the security of this Mengo. I'm afraid greed went for the Djeno. Calcs by Tiburn are great and make sense if you are sure you have all under control, but the key is a sustainable company and that means securing early cashflow which meant Mengo at that time.
Nothing we can do about it now I think? It's too late to go for the mengo now. Or is it? Not much to do to get the Mengo oil flowing, no waiting for a rig that a super major now has (will they release or will they be devious and sit on it just to spite AAOG... Can make a business case out of that!). Bring in 500 bbl oil per day at USD 60pbl is usd15,000 per day or usd450,000 per month until end of license... It secures the company AND most definitely will get the SP going up.
In my view THAT is good management and the most important duty of a director, do what is good for the company.
But I doubt it will happen like that!
He got ousted from the AEX board last week for being a turnip.....how come we always get other boards rejects?