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Many possibilities for sure, but at the end of the day the selling pressure from the YA-Riverfort is gone, with Forum paying a 25-30% premium to current SP. I expect we will creep back to that level as most stock will be held and Forum may well pick up more if they saw value at 0.5p.
Presuming the board and SC aren't out to destroy shareholders value (as some believe) they had offers in excess of the 0.5p "low-ball" offer from Forum, yet still chose Forum due to better value for shareholders in the longer term, as described by Paul Forrest:
"Forum has, through its investors and network, access to sources of funding as well as exciting and viable projects in the natural resources sector that could be suitable as acquisition targets for AAOG."
AAOG have at least breathing space to survive and now the contacts to unlock further value.
ive been pondering the possibilities, what else is a wet weekend for.
- Zen deal gets approved, Zen and Forum together have enough support to raise cash to proceed with the plan put forward.
- Zen deal gets approved, but Zen fail to raise the $2m required for license renewal (or Zen raise the capital but do not allocate it to Congo as they need funds for other projects), license expires June/July 2020
- Zen deal gets denied, new forum directors raise the capital needed to go forward with 100% (of the 56%) owned by AAOG.
- Zen Approval takes to long, uses that and SNPC payments as excuse to not renew license, Zen have not really lost anything as they have hardly any cash invested in to the project, but the idea of AAOG Congo has helped them sell their bonds for their other projects in the meantime.
- Zen deal gets approved, Zen only renew the license and do nothing more until SNPC payments.
- Zen Approval takes to long, zen doesn't forfill its commitments by Feb 2021 (which may or may not be formally written as requirements in to the full put and call option agreement, requiring execution of certain issues ie license renewal, work on the well), project is kept on hold for years.
- New Forum directors audit the company, find escobar's millions and reasons to cancel the zen deal then continue as originally planned but under new management.
- Nothing happens in Congo for 6 months and the license lapses. new management RTO a new project in to the company, Congo is all but forgotten apart from the hope that one day SNPC pay back their debt.
- Zen deal is approved in time, but Zen have had bad news on other projects, that combined with the reality of zen being unable to repay their bonds has caused the zen share price to tank and the £500k of Zen shares due to AAOG actually gets AAOG a much larger interest then envisaged.
- It all goes as currently planned, deal and cash is approved, well program is underway, SNPC pay up, everyone ends up happy and richer, we all live happily ever after....
To many to think of, to many ups, downs, lefts, rights, yes' and no', ifs and buts, so as always im just going to have to wait and see.
Just a hunch.
I have a feeling that the zen deal is about to collapse and align will move in.
The last payment that I can find was in June 2019, that’s a lot longer than 90 days ! So what happens now ?
JOA - been alot longer than 45 days since the last SNPC payment. Is the JOA technically still valid?
"Default
In the event a party fails to pay its contribution to the costs of the Petroleum Works it will be declared in default and given 45 days to remedy its failure. The consequences of such default for the defaulting party include the automatic withdrawal of the defaulting party from the PSC and the JOA, together with its rights to all Hydrocarbons."
The oil ministry and SNPC have only known about Zenith for a short period of time, the disposal vote only 12 days ago.
How long to complete essential DD and how long to approve the sale to Zenith of 80% of AAOG licence by the Ministers team?
Many questions to ask.
Do Zen have funds to drill, or dependant on SNPC repayments?
What technical capability do they have for drilling?
Whats their team experience in oil production management?
What are their longer term plans, Djeno or Mengo - do they align with SNPC?
Basically re do the entire PSA detail within the licence, back to square one is a considerable issue. It took a year to get to this point by AAOG, pending licence payment - The Ministers team will more than likely wish to re work the PSA as many aspects have changed.
The background to Zen is not one to give confidence, by admission of some of their LTH
Interesting post by a ZEN PI on drill failures in last 3 years:
"I've been invested in this pile of **** for 3 years now and can tell you it is possible to be invested and post negatively.
It's also possible with 3 years experience of AC to know that when he goes quiet on something (C21, C26, M66, M195, Z28, Z21 and now C37) that it's in trouble."
It may be difficult post DD by Ministers team and for them to approve the disposal.
Forum and Align would benefit form talking towards combining offers, Alex Mac and team join them, experience and funding are a powerful mix with less risk for Congo Minister and far better partner relationship with SNPC.