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Please explain why you think AAOG should have a MCAP of £250m on 5000 bopd when LEK is already producing over 2300 bopd has an excellent CPR and a draft JV with a major to ramp up production. MCAP £21m.
Your valuation imo seems way ott but please enlighten me.
Still invested with full (increased) AAOG shareholding myself,....with oil already coming to surface, the COS must be very good, for sidetrack,...having held AAOG for 103 & 103c drill results, very comfortable holding, for sidetrack results.
Alright, alright Angie/Sonia - don't get your knickers in a twist. You said yourself that nothing posted on here has any impact on the sp, so no need to sweat.
FWIW, I also think £1 is a bit rich to achieve before Xmas. I would maybe take 40-50p with a successful sidetrack. That's between 10 and 12 times the current so for those unable to do basic maths.
With your extensive geographic knowledge and foresight, have.you got any (positive) ideas about sourcing a suitable drill? Thanks in advance.
22 to 24 degrees.....what a ramp. I live 100 miles away across the Irish Sea and it is cold and pi55ing with rain. Good to have you back.
A comment of £1.00 ps without hard data let a CPR sounds like desperation, an attempt to get the sp to spike ,to avoid a shock results when they start off loading millions of shares onto the market.
Yes my average is higher than today's SP but it's also provided me with the opportunity to buy more AAOG than I would have normally. I think the increased liquidity from the new shares in issue will also allow other large holders to take up big positions and provide some stability to the SP. We dont want our SP to be made up of all PIs otherwise the SP becomes to unstable and lurches at the slightest news. Larger holders cant sell easily so generally hold until the big news arrives and then sell into the wind and fly high.
Lots of excitement to come here at AAOG imho.....and soon !!
Well, after more than a week touring Wales.... where the sun was full and the temperature was 22-24 everyday , I'm ready to get back to business ( although I see Irish must have been deramping again as the SP is pitiful.)
While being away I've had plenty of time to read back through my notes and refocus on what the AAOG story was actually about. I have not sold a single share and do not intend to until we hit that Djeno payzone square in the middle, then the divis will be quick to follow imho.
From here, I'd like to see our BOD purchase big chunks of the company and the Djeno to be harnessed. We know the Djeno is trying to escape from our well unaided under high pressures so let's benefit from this fact while we await the next step. However, I dont believe we will have long to wait for the next step as JB should finally swing into action with a ready to rock production plan . Hes a keen organiser and I for one do not believe hes been sat around watching the grass grow, we need a fully functional PP with no holes or grey areas.!!!
The Djeno reservoir is the real deal and £250m will be easily achievable when we have a 5,000bopd under our belt so we have plenty to AIM for. Once we have the re-entry underway it will be a short duration to production!!!!
He knows nothing more than following the trend. In defence of the company, his opinion is no better than anyone else who reads posts, the sp and the generally available news. Not saying he's wrong but the '19.95% of previous day's volume' has been a question mark since the rns... and Miton is a Russian doll of contraditions. still no clearer in my mind but Sefton is v keen, recently, on convoluted rns'. They sound super considered but, in reality, the more elements to it, the more it hides the fact that, if this was a solid bet, it wouldn't have such bizarre mechanisms to create cash (and moves the ATOG story into history... he hopes).
Still think it's a Trump model distraction technique... bang on about The Squad and hope noone concentrates on the Epstein connections... but instead of Epstein this one's just the abject failure to produce any meaningful cashflow, his personal involvment outside of the company to benefit from assets and to keep punting 'the big one'.
Oil man jim isn't any smarter than the cynics here... and, tbf, he could be just as wrong.
No Oilma Jim doesn't know his stuff
Just another negative blogger, with selective news reporting
What Jim ignores is that AAOG launched the justifiable $3.1m claim against SMP in the first place:
"The Company therefore launched legal proceedings in the Paris commercial court against SMP to recover costs of $3.1 million relating to SMP's underperformance"
That SMP retaliatory action was all they could do in response and very likely to be thrown out by local courts and AAOG likely to win the claim:
"Advice from International counsel in London, Paris and the Congo was that the claim by the Company had merit"
that now the £2.5m upfront Miton funding allows sidetrack drill to go ahead - the absolute number 1 focus
I'd be more interested in hearing from a specialist who's got some good ideas about the availability of a 2,000hp rig in the area.
Perhaps all our learned friendly helpers could devote some of their time more productively by having a look for us? Their assistance would be most welcome.( Fancy lights are a nice to have, but not essential)
I wonder what they do to satisfy their hunger for misery/suffering at the weekends when their aren't so many wakes to attend? Do they gatecrash self-help groups for unfortunates such as addicts, or those in mourning ? A bit like Fight Club.
He knows his stuff. Follow his advice
Tarry I think you are being a little presumptious , “ friends/ family” someone with such a negative and glass half empty personality would be extremely lucky to still have any !
As stated in a previous post, imo the 12 month ISA agreement may be cancelled if 103 sidetrack is a success, as the cash is not required.
Total shares in issue:
238m plus Miton shares 49m = 287m.
SP and market cap is irrelevant pre oil production.
Assuming TLP-103C has a successful sidetrack drill completed, 12m of Djeno goes to production as expected.
Capped at 2,500 bppd initially until topside work completes, then goes to 5,000 bopd as per adjacent fields assumed.
In time, TLP-104 - 107 are drilled and assumed to produce the same sustained bopd – there is stated Ten well programme in discussion with DGH, this is the plan and intention, there is no major impediment towards achieving this level of field development if 103 is a success.
AAOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTATION
If 103 goes to production from the Djeno, the risks drop substantially for follow on wells, all rides on this sidetrack being a success, but oil is flowing to surface through 2.5km of pipe and a 20m concrete cap – AAOG do expect the well to flow, SNPC as co partner has approved the approach.
The sidetrack has been in planning for months by a substantial and very experienced AAOG/SNPC technical team.
If 103 produces from Djeno:
- Booked sales revenue flows
- Reserve based lending facility is enabled
- II enter at key market cap milestones reached
- Partnering options open up with Majors
- SNPC interest increases substantially and could materialise in them funding their 44% share of drill costs upfront going forward, IMF funding changes the dynamic
- Field development could be rapid.
ELAND OIL BENCHMARK
Bench marking AAOG to Eland Oil in Nigeria, an oil producer that has grown substantially in the last few years.
Eland Oil in Nigeria was 60p when re-admitted for trading on Aim in May 2015, dropped to 24p, now 120p – oil being booked = true value gained, SP stabilised
Market cap =260m
Current shares in issue are 217m
Eland have a share buyback programme in effect and started paying dividends
Their main producing asset is 45% of the Nigerian OML 40 licence - a best estimate of 254.5 mmbbls of gross un-risked prospective resources.
Eland are Producing 13,000 bopd net to them with total production at 30,000 bopd at this time.
AAOG POTENTIAL SP - BENCHMARK
So what scale of SP could AAOG realistically have mid way through the ten well plan with five producing wells for total 25,000 bopd?
Production share at 56% retained is 14,000 to AAOG
Net Revenue at $65 Brent = $159m p/a
Eland oil net production is 13,000, Net Revenue is $155m p/a - so comparable
Shares in issue Eland are 217M, AAOG 287m expected (with no ISA additions assumed)
AAOG has 32% more shares
Using this as a high level pro rata factor, as no reserves basis yet
Reduce Eland SP 120p by 32% to gain equivalent AAOG potential SP = 82p a share.
Total ten well development, as stated in Finncap note and its potential 160p a share
Hi Zen -fair enough comment if you pro-rata new o/s numbers would be 41p , not too shabby !
162 m @ £1 = approx. £162M market cap
(396,548,396 ) 396m @ 41p = approx. £162M market cap
"Only then could this negative view have any possible credence or be comparable in any way to the combined evidence presented, unsubstantiated negative opinion without agenda is of course absolutely fine as a viewpoint, but has no objective depth or foundation and so should be treated with extreme caution by others."
Was that £1 expectation before or after he decided to issue a further 160m shares ?
Finncaps detailed analysis was based on 162.1m shares (now circa 400m after last weeks financing).
Don't let the facts get in the way of presenting a balanced view.
To tender an alternate lower value estimate for the SP on field success with any weight, a contrary commentator would have to be on the Exec Board of AAOG, have access to all the information that the Chairman has to enable him to take an evidence based view on the true prospects of the company and provide a realistic SP projection.
They would also then need to evaluate the SP potential through comprehensive evaluation modelling as completed by Finncap Broker in their note Djeno Unchained.
This document runs to 32 pages and presents detailed and background evaluation, sourced basis to calculations and conservative assumptions made for different scenarios, evaluation of reservoir scale and reserves, Ebit, capital efficiency and intrinsic value, P/E ratio expectations, leverage analysis and much more, reasonable assumptions and caveats are stated, the modelled results are what they are, assuming Cos of just 25% for Djeno aswell.
Overall the analysis is conservative as based on reserves analysis to end of licence 2020, was written before Djeno oil discovery and licence extension for 25 years.
Only then could this negative view have any possible credence or be comparable in any way to the combined evidence presented, unsubstantiated negative opinion without agenda is of course absolutely fine as a viewpoint, but has no objective depth or foundation and so should be treated with extreme caution by others.
Character defamation of the Chairman and Finncaps detailed analysis is also not an argument that can possibly substantiate a negative view and rejection of the target SP stated at £1 a share.
After, presumably, a night out with family/friends and the first thing you thought to do Benny was come on here to make a point? Is all the time you are spending on a BB for a company you no longer hold shares in really worth all your time?
Hi benny Do we not need buys/sells to make a market ?
“At any given moment, an equity's price is strictly a result of supply and demand. The supply, commonly referred to as the float, is the number of shares offered for sale at any one moment. The demand is the number of shares investors wish to buy at exactly that same time. The price of the stock moves in order to achieve and maintain equilibrium. The product of this instantaneous price and the float at any one time is the market capitalization of the entity offering the equity at that point in time.
When prospective buyers outnumber sellers, the price rises. Eventually, sellers attracted to the high selling price enter the market and/or buyers leave, achieving equilibrium between buyers and sellers. When sellers outnumber buyers, the price falls. Eventually buyers enter and/or sellers leave, again achieving equilibrium.
Thus, the value of a share of a company at any given moment is determined by all investors voting with their money. If more investors want a stock and are willing to pay more, the price will go up. If more investors are selling a stock and there aren't enough buyers, the price will go down. “
just got back in... so, before bed, an answer:
because of ludicrous statements like an estimate of £1.00 per share, based on proactive investor's... quote from ol' man Sefton!
So how is that any less damaging to any new investors than anything a 'troll' says. The idea that existing investors whinge about losing money while baiting nubies to come in so they can get out at a higher price is not even ironic... just poor.
Still, that's what investing's about, eh, getting someone else to take your shares at a higher price!
28 min 15 sec in - 100p a share expectation as stated by the Chairman
Finncapp Brokers Evaluation, June 2018 - Djeno Unchained
"To be conservative, we assume individual well flow rates of 2,500bpd with four to 10 development wells required in the Best - High resource cases respectively, giving 69-159p/share .. for the Djeno sands.”
But, please, why are you here all the time?
Are you some sort of socialist (we’re a protected species here); how otherwise to explain your constant and pessimistic (not necessarily wrong) presence?
Anglo African Oil & Gas HAVE actually struck 56m column of oil – its is viewed as a good to excellent reservoir by five organisations - its a phenomenal result first drill.
LTH here have excellent knowledge, a Gentlemans club of St James BB tone is in development with the filters in place - any PI still unsure how solid this share is and with a need to understand the realistic expectations, risks etc should ask their questions - No question is wrong - the facts need explaining and showcasing constantly – it benefits us all.
Any PI should therefore air their questions by all means and objective answers will follow im sure from LTH here – just filter the named malcontents first and reduce the noise - they had their chance to be objective and see both sides and blew it, have been exposed and now filtered- this share is not 100% negative as they maintain - equally its not 100% positive - the key is to evaluate any negatives and come to an overall stance -imo the outlook is very positive for AAOG.