We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Covid outbreak at Wood Smith mine.
https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/mine-owner-allays-worker-safety-21041869
“IMO anyone who says that a project like Woodsmith is going to take x months is a wafflebox who is only demonstrating their ignorance”
Chris Fraser made regular production date estimates.
Pip
IMO anyone who says that a project like Woodsmith is going to take x months is a wafflebox who is only demonstrating their ignorance. This is due to all the real innovation taking place both in concept and in construction. I think that Anglo realise this. The answer is simple - the project will take what it takes. At the LGF last week it was admitted that constructing the u/g headgear was a lot more difficult than anticipated.
Looking ahead to the sinking no SBR has not yet worked through an unfrozen aquifer as I understand it and so nobody really knows how it will perform in the Bunter sandstone. You can minimise the water entering the shaft excavation with a grout curtain, but the rock that you are cutting is saturated and so my commonsense tells me that significant maintenance downtime may be expected until Herrenknecht come up with a fix. A bit like Bauer and the diaphragm walls for the foreshafts - they struggled at the start, but with their experience developed a successful fix to prevent clogging of the cutters.
I do not know whether it was because several ladies were on the LGF zoom, but I had a smile when Mark, the engineer, referred daintily to the excavated material as "arisings". I am pretty sure that the SBR crew will not use that word when they are operating in the Bunter !
You may remember that Anglo owned Boulby until 20 odd years ago and so should be well aware of the shaft lining problems in the Evaporites. If Woodsmith is going to realise its true potential then it must be constructed properly first time. And that goes for the MTS tunnel as well.
Best wishes
woolybac
Only two one mile shafts to sink, the geothermal gradient at that depth is around 46 degrees c. That is going to cause major problems.
With respect to Mr Fraser, I have no great opinion on the guy.
He may be a holdover.
It would not be totally unusual for a company with AALs experience (and set ways of doing things, for good or evil) to review certain aspects of the development plan. Any takeover is like purchasing a house. Only when you do some work on the thing, ripping up the floorboard etc, do you find out how it really works.
The takeover of Sirius was an asset play to get into POLY4, the business case for the product has already been explained by the company. If full ramp-up is delayed a bit, not too fussed.
On a further note, and it is not just relevant to this page, is there any point in chasing down red herrings (not sure of the metaphor)?
Thungela has gone and is a separate company (with its own page on this website).
Sirius has gone, so any grievance people have with the previous management don't really help us on this board.
POLY4 will be material down the line, but as regards current share price movements, you would do well to focus on the prospects and pricing of PGMs, iron and diamonds.
Just IMHO
Chris Fraser... now there is a name to conjure with. A very clever man who backed both sides and came out as a winner. I suspect AAL have him on a very tight Non Disclosure Agreement because he knows where all the bodies are buried within the depths of that unholy menage a trois of Sirius - Morgan Stanley - Anglo American.
Why are AAL taking so long to get the mine into production? It can't be lack of cash so are they hesitant over the original design & build specs?
Tedmak, what use is Chris Fraser to a mining company like AAL?
Once Woodsmith was integrated, the CFO and CDO positions became redundant.
Am not worried if they are reviewing aspects of the development plan as the project will come into action in time.
POLY4 is a great product that meets agriculture needs in a more sustainable fashion from a carbon footprint point of view.
There are other strings to the AAL bow whilst waiting for this project to start.
Simon Carter
Chief Development Officer has also resigned.
Thomas Staley, finance chief behind Wood Smith fertiliser mine in North Yorkshire, resigns
You had better pull your finger out.
“Production is scheduled to reach 10 million tonnes per year in 2021 and 20 million tonnes annually by 2026.
Fraser said output should begin in the middle of 2021, up to six months earlier than previously planned after the hiring of a new drilling company DMC Mining Services of Canada, a subsidiary of Poland's KGHM KGH.WA”
So far production is a few core samples.
Thanks Wooly. It's extraordinary to think back to those halcyon days when we were told, and believed, the first ore was going to see daylight before the end of '21. Speed was of the essence to pay down the debt - was the plan. Now here we are with hardly a sod turned in anger on the two big shafts. I seem to recall it would be 18-24 months before the bottom was reached after starting so AAL isn't going to see a return for ages.
After getting the mine for a song they are certainly taking their time getting it into production. I still half expect a fire sale to Boulby next door!
Pip
The HY report comes next week and Woodsmith followers will be disappointed in it. Last Feb. Mark Cutifani said that the final budget and schedule would be ready by mid year. At Wednesday's LGF meeting I was geared up to ask under AOB how it was proceeding, but before I could stick my hand up Gareth Edmunds announced that it would not be ready until next February !
On reflection I am glad that Anglo are getting a grip on this project because the planning side has always seemed a bit BoJo like from day 1. For example 3 1/2 years ago when AMC were replaced as shaft sinking contractors by DMC who were going to use SBR technology it was stated that the polyhalite would be reached by May 2021. Alright since then there have been financial hiccups and covid, but here we are in July 2021 the SBR has not yet started work and DMC have gone.
I would be happier still if the shaft sinking was not being done in house. The Redpath group who were part of the AMC consortium, have recently completed two shafts at the Nezhinsky potash mine in Belarus using SBR technology, if DMC did not fit.
The Woodsmith shafts will not be a doddle and could well be a financial disaster if the very best experienced Master Sinkers and shaft sinking engineers are not used IMO.
I will put it another way, would the MTS tunnel be 15.6 km complete if it had been done in house rather than by Strabag ? They have been consistently good as far as I can see.
Best wishes
woolybac
My error.... getting the production report and the HY Report mixed up. Ignore my last!
There was a Wordsmith Community Liaison Group meeting last night and generally these include a project update. At the previous meeting in April the following was stated:
"GE responded that he would feed the request for more site images back to the team, and that a project update would be provided in July as part of Anglo American’s half year results."
I am not aware that any update was provided in the HY Results. Has anyone else seen anything?
Development chief departs Anglo's Woodsmith project
The chief development officer of the North Yorkshire fertiliser mine now owned by Anglo American has stepped down and is set to leave the company.
You had better pull your finger out.
“Production is scheduled to reach 10 million tonnes per year in 2021 and 20 million tonnes annually by 2026.
Fraser said output should begin in the middle of 2021, up to six months earlier than previously planned after the hiring of a new drilling company DMC Mining Services of Canada, a subsidiary of Poland's KGHM KGH.WA”
So far production is a few core samples.
They are tunnelling around 17m/day, only 25000 meters to go, then the 37000 meter convoy system to fit.
Tunnel Progress
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/anglo-american-uk_the-tunnel-that-will-transport-polyhalite-activity-6771125251679027200--oMn
1st polyhalite was when the first (vertical) shaft reached the Polyhalite seam (as noted, this is about 1.5km below ground level. It’s the same seam as that currently being mined at Boulby but as Boulby is nearer sea level, their shaft isn’t as deep.
1st poly is/was a key milestone as it was linked to bonuses for the team. Income wise, it is far less important as the caverns need to be opened up so that the continuous mining machines could be set up. Until this is completed, the amount of product available to sell is insignificant and will be transported by road. It was expected that the first poly would be transported by road until the tunnel was completed and fitted out.
The tunnel reaches Woodsmith at (IIRC) 350m below ground level.
OR
Numptypi the poly is over 1km below the lowest point of the TBM drive.
Not sure why you think woodsmith is lethargic.
https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/major-jobs-boost-by-spring-19461816
My understanding is that they were expecting to progress 17m per day, but they are ( were) actually achieving up to 3 times that. In fact the expanded concrete section production line couldn’t keep up which explains the additional offsite production.
I agree that the situation with the vertical shaft need some explanation.
My understanding of ‘First poly by 2021 ‘ was expected to be the polyhalite intersected by the Tbm en-route rather than the polyhalite at the end of the completed tunnel earmarked for mining.
My ( Sons ) holding like so many is much reduced, but for his sake I still follow the story.
Numpty pi
Good afternoon Pictsloup and OR
As an AAL shareholder I am somewhat embarassed by the lethargy and lurkey fever which has enveloped Woodsmith. You talk about full production by 24-25, presumably Sirius' 10 mtpa figure and an ultimate 20 mtpa target. AAL have said very little about production targets and dates so far, but I am certain that the shafts will not reach the polyhalite before Q4 2023. I am certain because it appears that proper sinking ( below 120 m ) of any shaft at Woodsmith has yet to start despite Sirius' 2021 target for reaching the polyhalite .
I look forward to the gaffer's update this coming summer with its timeline now that he has had a year to see what he has bought. I will be very disappointed if it becomes Mannana Mine
woolybac
In 2019 the earning per share for AA was $2.75 with a dividend of $1.09.
Woodsmith at full production is planned to deliver 20 million tonnes. The profit margin is much higher than AA currently and could be as high as $100 per tonne. If it achieves that figure, that’d be profit of $2 billion - about one third of the AA’s 2019 profits.
I only have 500 shares in AA and I’m hoping for a dividend of 5%+.
OR
AAL made 6billion profit in ye18 and 19, probably significantly more in 20, what with iron at $160/t etc. Assuming Woodsmith starts producing next year and hits full production in say 2024-5, the first few years will pay off the extra debt, and thereafter it may produce a profit of ~£500m-£1b per year - a useful but hardly transformational addition to the company's total profit.