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Post Brexit I am astonished by the fact that our mealy mouthed government has become bankrupt of ideas. Labour had the proposal that we should set up a new company for electricity and cut out the European stranglehold connection. This innovative approach has not been taken on board by the Tory party. Why do our electricity profits flow into Europe as before? We have the same approach on our water systems. Seize everything back and cut off the free ride Europe is getting at our expense. Make Brexit work.
So, now we are on the move. Long may this recovery continue.
Let's see it going back to above £20 before Xmas day. Onwards and upwards!
From what I see, the price of a stock is very seldom 'right', it's either moving too high on overenthusiasm or too low on fear.
Anglo I think is the second, a mix of lower prices, reduced revenue, and likely, concerns that the platinum metals division will more than half as catalytic converters become obsolete has made people overly fearful of this stock.
There is also of course the issue that a lot of the market is pretty cheap, and the lure of the US markets touching or breaking new highs, AND the amount of money sitting in bonds and 5%-6% interest accounts , gives you a situation to do your own research, and if you think there are misprices around, to make a nice gain over the coming years.
TA1, can you briefly explain what effect this supposed phenomenon has? To my simplistic eyes if the price is held artificially low, people (and trading systems) would buy the shares and the availability dries up. Price then has to rise for MMs to obtain the shares from people selling to meet a buy demand. If I thought the low price was unrealistic I would not be selling my shares to let other people buy them. Result: stability and fair pricing.
Conversely, if "people" think the price is right, by definition it is not being held artificially low.
TA1
Absolutely spot on, hopefully, after ripping the Conservative party apart all the head bangers in the party will disappear off to the Reform Party with their supporters. Again hopefully, we will then have a government that can focus on the needs of our country and the economy
Wrighty
I agree, Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster for the country.
But what bothers me most is the inaction to stimulate the economy post Brexit.
Most of this lot aren’t real tories, they’re ukip brexiteers masquerading as Tories. All the decent ones were culled in the last election and replaced by sycophants. There is a total absence of innovation to kickstart the economy. They are redundant of policy and ideology, and most damagingly have no understanding about market dynamics, globalisation or constructive capitalism. There are many obvious measures that could be taken to energise Britain’s economy, but current government is incapable of implementing anything which would bolster the economy. That’s what happens when the electorate elect illiterate, undereducated populists.
TA1
An interesting take on the situation, in my view, the LSE has had it, our country has had it, all thanks to the Tory Brexiteer head bangers and the like
Beard
More likely to be a merger than a takeover in my view. As analysts have pointed out Glencore would be the most viable partner, cost cutting and savings from synergies would be considerable. And a merger would be virtually seamless because of common ground and shared objectives.
However the market valuation is low enough to attract predatory attention from private equity/vulture funds/asset strippers. The sum of all AA’s parts are worth between 2/3 times more than current valuation. The undesirable elements that plague beaten down UK stocks (think Morrisons) may find the potential of turning a massive profit irresistible.
A powerhouse company at the forefront of the global economy, such as AA, would never find itself in this position if it were listed in a decent index.
A toxic index that decimates the value of every company it touches.
I 'am' not...
I are not talking about before, but that was from yesterday's Daily mail article. Besides, it's only just a rumour. I didn't say there's definitely someone intending to do, lol.
Beg to differ on that bet Elon Musk could afford to buy it....Just saying
Do you even bother to read earlier posts/threads on here before ramping? The take-over story has been reported here umpteen times in the past few days. As a loyal AAL holder myself, I can assure you that nobody can afford to buy the company at the present moment in time.
From Saturday's Daily mail:
"Angst at Anglo American as mining giant
is tipped to be takeover target: It was not
long ago that Anglo American was at the
top of its game, raking in record profits and
handing out lavish dividends of £4.9 billion.
The company, which was set up in South
Africa during the First World War, played a
defining role in creating the global mining
industry in the 20th Century. Its De Beers
arm declared 'A Diamond is Forever' in
1947. The company later helped to develop
Zambia's copper belt."
Will someone really buy AAL, and how much we are going to get? I wouldn't mind if they pay £25+ a share.
Now, let's bring on tomorrow and see what will happen then. Love to see it bouncing back up to £20, lol. 🤞🤞💪💪
1999
Ftse - 6970
Dax - 5000
Dow -800
2023
Ftse - 7578
Dax - 16755
Dow -37230
And for the first time in history the CAC will close the weeks out numerically higher than the ftse
The ftse - an unregulated engine of wealth destruction.
An index where every boiler room and rogue hedge fund targets shares with tens of thousands of fake sells daily with a practice known as spoofing, that is outlawed elsewhere.
And the FCA and government sit idly by, terrified of soiling the already sullied reputation of UK markets.
My petition has 20 signatories and waiting approval
Once it is approved I will contact investor relations of every ftse100 company and make it a crusade to stamp out cheating and holding criminal manipulators accountable.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/653169/sponsors/new?token=tEsepLajN7mQE8SDiw07
Dodgy
Anglo American is the most diversified of all big cap miners. A little research will confirm that.
It should be remembered that mining giants are at the forefront of the global economy, and that isn’t going to change anytime soon. China’s massive economic expansions was built on miners. A factor that will only grow with the transition to green energy.
I have said on a number of boards that the markets are now prone to severe overreaction to negative news. The reason is easy to see, trading volumes are low by historical standards and much of the day's trading is exercised by "bots ", trend following and trying to scrape fractions of a penny from short-term holds. As they all follow roughly the same inbuilt logic they all move in the same direction simultaneously. Anyone who like me is up before 7 and reads the RNS's can see that the result of this "bot" activity is evident in the short-term, inappropriate, wild oscillations, even of multi-billion dollar companies SP's.
In recent weeks the responses to news from DGE and RTO have followed the same pattern as AAL. IMV it is easier than it has ever been for a rational, non-panicking PI to buy good stocks at short-term discounts . . The hysteria here over the last few days has illustrated only that quite a few PI's just don't get it.
Https://www.observer24.com.na/anglo-american-unlocks-value-through-operational-discipline/
Now, in profit for the first time since I bought. Long may this recovery continue. Onwards and upwards!!
@Toffappleton1,
It is true that since 1999, the FTSE has made no headway, but 1999 was at the time, a record peak.
The US stock markets themselves were flat between WW2 and the late 60's, with many believing that the DOW would never break thru 1000. Arguably it only did so through currency devaluation !!!
Compared to Blighty, I would say that the US markets are a far better example of rigging or absurdity. Their current aggregate PE ratios are off the charts. They are well into bubble territory.
I have heard this rationalised, on the basis of low interest rates, and because capital needs yield, and had nowhere else to go. But even the recent rise in interest rates could not pop the bubble.
But the comparator here is the Tokyo stock exchange from 1989, which popped spectacularly, and in 34 years, hasn't saw those highs again. I think at one point, it was down 90%.
So old Blighty might be stuck in the mud, But if a global crash kicks everything over, we could say that we would take a hit, but we would not be wiped out as individual investors, as say the yanks might be.
If there is manipulation, I think it's worse when it's to the upside. You think you would cash in, in time, but we wouldn't.
@toffappleton1,
I actually agree with you that the markets are rigged, but that should not be our default assumption. I do agree with you that n@ked shorting is a bane to us small investors.
So, we should look at price movements in this sector with open eyes, just to mull on things we maybe overlooked.
Note also that commodities might crash in a global downturn, because price is determined at the margins. We might get anything between a commodities supercycle, or an extended commodities slump.
I tender the view, that the big five FTSE commodities giants, need not and do not move together over the medium term, regardless that they seem to in the short term.. Out of those 5, we have four groups, and this is why the chart formations differ:
---ANTO is a) for copper, in b) a singular jurisdiction (Chile).
---BHP and RIO, have a lot of copper exposure, but in more diverse jurisdictions, plus they are multi-commodity miners.
---AAL is less on the copper, more into PGM and diamonds, both having had a spanking. What need now for PGM, when the car industry is going EV, so no need for catalytic converters. The recent AAL RNS might not have been the actual cause of the recent drop, but just the final straw. If traders seek copper exposure, AAL is cutting its production, ANTO involves too much jurisdictional risk, whereas RIO and BHP are still diversified companies with a lot of copper exposure.
---GLEN is on planet Mars as far as this sector goes. I understand they had a re-org, and their price history is a sort of reset.
I have no expertise in any of this. I just notice things and maybe collectively we can figure it out.
Hope it will soon go back up to over £20 again.
GLA
Dodgy
One would expect the chart patterns of big cap miners to resemble each other as they are in the same sector. Up until recently they have performed in line with one another, but all that changed when hedge foods started mass spoofing Anglo American.
Spoofing is a crime in the US but there is no statute prohibiting it in the UK. It leaves UK shares wide open to indefensible abuse, as we have seen with AA.
If the government is ever going regain confidence in UK markets it needs follow other global markets example and outlaw spoofing, and come down on the perpetrators very very hard.
For those of you who don’t know what spoofing is I’ll explain it in another post. The UK’s dearth of regulation has flung the doors open to every boiler room and rogue hedge fund to practice in the UK what is outlawed in their own countries. All at the expense of shareholders.
I forgot to mention,
you can see all these chart patterns yourself, if for each company on this site, you just click 'share charts' on the top panel, then select the longest time period (currently 5 years) , and they come into view.
The neckline doesn't have to be horizontal (like it was for AAL); it's allowed to slope a bit (as it does for BHP).
The pattern is supposed to bounce along this line. three bumps, being two shoulders of equal height, on either side, and the summit will be in the middle.
A reverse H&S is the same, but inverted, as with Anto. If it breaks through the neckline as the formation completes, then it will comprise a price breakout.
So with my amateur eye, I see copper and the rest of the commodities complex maybe pulling in different directions. Even the big boys don't yet know which way it will go, but just maybe, they are selling AAL to buy BHP and RIO, to hedge their bets. BHP and RIO give you copper exposure, without focusing your entire investment in one jurisdiction.
Nonetheless, at some point, AAL becomes cheap.
The 1661 buy in is looking good but trimmed