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Thanks Roofer mate, I am staying with this one. Because it's a recovery play, since it has fallen too much. Also I have a reasonable low break even at 18.22. will enjoy the dividend and hopefully a bit of capital gain as well.
Anyway, hope that you had a nice Xmas. Now, I wish you a happy New year my friend, all the very best!
HI OR trust you are well.
AAL's decision to look at selling a stake in Woodsmith fits with their recent moves to trim capex generally. From their latest RNS see
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AAL/anglo-american-performance-update/16243722
The figures show an expected capex (even after reductions)of $22bn over the next four years which is approx twice their likely profit for the period, so some sort of compromise was clearly necessary. A total divestment of some assets or a buy-in and Woodsmith, with still significant development costs(latest est. $9 Bill., over three times the last SXX est.!!)is an obvious candidate . As you say, it is a sacrifice of profits expected over many years of the mine's production but maybe needs must?
How come The Times get the news before shareholders? Where is the RNS?
OR
I don’t see this as good news at all. It may help the SP over the short term but will halve the value of Woodsmith to us mere mortals. Maybe it’s a ploy to eventually sell Woodsmith completely in order to screw AAL shareholders, just as SXX shareholders were screwed.
OR
Brexit has made the EU more of a flexible entity even though the UK has paid a price it has had more influence on being realistic over the channel, amazing how the UK actually prevented evolution by being in the EU.
I will be very miffed if AAL is bought out but think Woodsmith prevents that.
Woodsmith was deliberately manoeuvered into the hands of AAL instead of giving a lesser outfit a long term loan. I object to deals selling the polyhalite in advance as it will sell itself for more profit at market rates.
Sidi , there's more to come here, I'm giving it minimum of 6 months, you leave them mis calculation to me lol...atb
Sorry, I might have spoken too soon. Now, it has dropped back a little, lol. 😂😂😂
But never mind, it will go back up again soon, and will even climb higher.
Have a great day everyone.
This is very good news for us as they have been struggling with financing plans and moving project forward quickly enough to make it worthwhile for us.
Article in Times.
https://www.xm.com/research/markets/allNews/reuters/anglo-american-rises-after-report-of-plan-to-stake-sale-in-uk-mine-53727023
Also here hopefully link works.
My limit sell at 2000 which I put on 30% of my recently acquired holding has just been hit, several months before I expected it, returning a tad over 20%
I normally set a range of sells for parts of my holdings 'cos I'm out of the country and out of contact for most of Jan- mar. That a major FTSE 100 company can bounce down 30% and back up 20% in a matter of a dozen trading days shows how absolutely manic the markets currently are. However, it does allow shrewd investors to apply a rational view and make short-term profits. that's not normally my thing , but when the opportunity presents it's sensible to take advantage.
I still think AAL has some way forward to go from here, maybe with pullbacks along the way and will hold or even add if we see a 10%+ retrench. Long term I see no reason not to expect a significant , slow return to much higher levels as the need for extracted metals isn't going away.
Now, £20 at last, £21 next. Happy New Year to all!
There is no doubt that Wordsmith is a burden and having seen many different companies deliver projects AAL do appear to have significantly higher standards than SXX and therefore not surprising the CAPEX demand is greater and the delivery period longer. I'm sure there has been much boardroom discussion on whether to speed up the project and get the product to market sooner or have a 'sensible' cashflow spend. If as the trials suggest Poly4 is 'excellent' this should be a money spinner and time will tell if they maintain current programme and deliver the sales and subsequent profits. My opinion, worth holding for a few years.
Are you short AAL chisler?
Can you substantiate your comment please.
The way things are going AAL wil have to mothball Woodsmith....i think its cursed any how...
chisler
Poly 4 Is being sold, but only from the Boulby mine up the road, owned by an Israeli company. On present estimates, AAL won't be extracting Poly in saleable quantities for several years.
I can't understand why POLY 4 is not bring sold now in the shops . This part of the firm is worth a lot more than sparkling bits of glass which will become irrelevant as time moves on.
Bit of a struggle and it didn't make it to £20, but over £19 isn't so bad, perhaps before the new year, if not, then next year, lol 😂😂😂😂
Merry Xmas to all and a happy new year!
While I think a T/O of AAL is unlikely, it is not impossible, the recent SP fall knocked almost £10 bill off the MC (which shows how ludicrously fragile the markets are) and when compared to BHP (MC £250bn ) and RIO (MC £95 bn) AA is a relative tiddler. However, though my thesis is that AA will recover most of the recent overdone fall, it may well have woken the bigger boys up to an opportunity. Having built up a position at just below £17 (at which level a maintained divi would be just over 6%)I will happily hold for some time.
Strengthens AAL position.
"UAE’s Oil Champion Moves into Fertilizers. ADNOC, the national oil company of the United Arab Emirates, agreed to buy a 50% stake in the fertilizer unit of European chemical firm OCI (AMS:OCI) for $3.6 billion, taking its total shareholding in Fertiglobe to 86.2% once the transaction is closed."
DIAMONDS
EU Finally Adopts 12th Package of Russia Sanctions. The European Union formally adopted the 12th package of sanctions against Russia, banning the imports of non-industrial diamonds.
Merry Christmas to everyone.
I can't see GLEN making bid for AAL. I would have thought BHP a more likely suitor aligning with common commodities iron ore, potash and copper, but still can't see any bid materialising...... AAL have been a victim of circumstances, funding the build of a new mine during falling commodity prices/income during a period of high inflation....they built the Quellvecho mine in Peru on time/budget....keep the faith
@OracleofOldham
There's a huge number of stocks on the FTSE that we are being repeatedly told are undervalued by a long way - a malaise of the FTSE in general. Due, we are told to pension funds investing globally and, recently, cash and bonds being more attractive (though there are now several FTSE stocks with yields over 8% if income is wanted).
I've been piling what I can in to (mainly) UK stocks over the last year - ISA maxxed out. It's a bit of a gamble but there are the first signs that it may pay off. I also like to try to find oversold stocks as an entry point - CVSG for example after the CMA investigation was announced. Hopefully AAL was similarly oversold (though I suspect not to the same extent)
I just wonder how much loose cash GLENCORE has under the floorboards after the SFO raid on its accounts. Could it now still afford a takeover of AAL?
As I hold shares in both companies I find the situation very confusing.
Post Brexit I am astonished by the fact that our mealy mouthed government has become bankrupt of ideas. Labour had the proposal that we should set up a new company for electricity and cut out the European stranglehold connection. This innovative approach has not been taken on board by the Tory party. Why do our electricity profits flow into Europe as before? We have the same approach on our water systems. Seize everything back and cut off the free ride Europe is getting at our expense. Make Brexit work.
So, now we are on the move. Long may this recovery continue.
Let's see it going back to above £20 before Xmas day. Onwards and upwards!
From what I see, the price of a stock is very seldom 'right', it's either moving too high on overenthusiasm or too low on fear.
Anglo I think is the second, a mix of lower prices, reduced revenue, and likely, concerns that the platinum metals division will more than half as catalytic converters become obsolete has made people overly fearful of this stock.
There is also of course the issue that a lot of the market is pretty cheap, and the lure of the US markets touching or breaking new highs, AND the amount of money sitting in bonds and 5%-6% interest accounts , gives you a situation to do your own research, and if you think there are misprices around, to make a nice gain over the coming years.
TA1, can you briefly explain what effect this supposed phenomenon has? To my simplistic eyes if the price is held artificially low, people (and trading systems) would buy the shares and the availability dries up. Price then has to rise for MMs to obtain the shares from people selling to meet a buy demand. If I thought the low price was unrealistic I would not be selling my shares to let other people buy them. Result: stability and fair pricing.
Conversely, if "people" think the price is right, by definition it is not being held artificially low.