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Cheap A.K.A Goliard, davidbrentsflipflops,plenty more fish,cteal etc,etc.
Seems you just can’t stay away. Why not just buy in and join the AA family as you seem to love us so much.
Cteal - this is the internet. It's full of cowardds who mock you because they do not need to say it face to face.
Leftist and liberals and lots of Brits are exactly like that.
It is pathetic in my view. Just need to grow of thick skin. You need to remember that in the they will reap what they sow
All the best with your investments, Sharesboy.
Goliard I am sure we will hear from you much sooner than that in another one of your incarnations.
You can’t have many toes left to dip in now , as you seem to dip into a lot of threads and sites that you hold no shares in or have no interest in to offer your sage advice and take plenty of fish with you on your travels so you both don’t get lonely. ATB
So after opening an account here to "engage in enlightened conversation " yesterday at the suggestion of my platform providers , i find my hesitation justified ,in 24hrs i have been dismissed as using a simple illustration of a car , if you want a more detailed illustration i have many , of being "Goliard " ?? , and basically highlighting a different view , with the exception of Mr Flibbles who at least looked at my figures ( and i agree im only one of many looking at these numbers and i dont have every bit of information ) i will leave ,having "dipped my toe in a chat room " . I do stand by my figures though and will revisit here in a months time ,to either eat humble pie or see my workings out prove correct , all the best to you and thanks Mr Flibbles of at least giving me a glimpse of "engaging in enlightened conversation " .
Cteal made a new account yesterday....lol
I saw that instantly, more over he also knows his calculations don’t add up and comparing a car that is a depreciating asset , to a company that is cash generative is more than slightly odd, but hey ho.
deemule - I hope you can now see from my posts above that cteal calculations don't quite add up.
Thank you cteal, but I was only coming down to a level we all understand, but I also ague who would expect a dividend return of 12% on equity? Equities are yielding 4%. That only requires captial NAV growth of 6% pa easily doable for PE. Remember they can only convert 900m of the debt by investing cr1.2 billion taking debt down to 1.7 billion.
Like I wrote we can continue to do basic math all day but we are will never be better than than the army of analysts from 4 organisations!!!!!
Goliard maybe you should take a leaf out of Mr Flibbles book then and revisit all your comments made on the A*VFN site and delete them on AA thread , then you would not receive negative comments and be treated with caution and distrust.
Regarding cheap comments. “People who live in glass houses, shouldn’t throw Stones”.
Mr.Flibbles you are correct with your figures and nice to find someone who understands the deeper workings of the markets and have a different view without resorting to cheap comments , maybe there is merit to these chat rooms after all lol , all the best Mr.Flibbles
No idea but he was on ADVFN slating posters earlier.
Why would someone make a new account to tell us all this....
Ammu
Yes he is otherwise known as Goliard.
What cteal is saying (correct me if I am incorrect) is something like; if we presume a buyer invests 3 billion in the AA then hypothetically this investment converts all debt into equity the return on 3b of 12% dividend for the private equity company requires £360m of FCF just to pay this. Currently operating free cash flow after capital expenditure was only £228m (2019: £173m).
We must all respect this.
But I argue that we can look into the quantitative data all-day long to make adjustments on the above, but we are not smarter than the 3 bidders and their army of analysts. The private equity cycle can be long (not just 5 years) and complex and the 3 bidders know what they are doing. We are not going to get pounds for this I agree. But all going well we will get something.
There are some planks on these forums and you are NOT one of them. We just agree to disagree.
Thanks ammu123 for showing me how "desperate" i must be for giving my view, ,not sure why im desperate ? And then i remember why i avoid these chat rooms ,experiance and knowledge are allways dismissed if it sheds light on a position we hold , this quote comes to mind " Being ignorant is not so much a shame, as being unwilling to learn.
Benjamin Franklin ps all the best
cteal wrote: "...the bidders like the last bidder that took this company private need 10-12 % return"
Absolutely. And they would have worked this out in their cycle and will not overpay. But we PI's can not work this out ourselves and rely on the qualitative facts to hand like 3 bidders.
Cteal makes a new account to tell us all this lol...
Just shows how desperate some are getting.
sharehounder, that is true but we must not forget the pre-close trading update on Tuesday.
Thanks Mr.Flibbles for your polite reply ,we all have different views ( its what makes a market ) ,but have learned that cash in the bank as a opposed to owing the bank puts me in a much stronger position , yes AA has cash flow ,but debt was about £2.7 billion ( yes billion ) and the bidders like the last bidder that took this company private need 10-12 % return ,and the last owner CVC managed to bring the share price down from over £4.00 ,heavy levels of debt and high levels of customer service rarely go together
"An official confirmed bid of 40p would send this stock very close to 40p"
CORRECT
the action has been if in with a large holding sell may be 50% on the rise as it hit the market this week on the speculation.[as one can normally get back in at a lower price whilst the 30 day wait as it makes nervouse trigger fingers]
come september deal or no deal 25, 35, 40p 50p ???????? that is the question or if NO bid ...time for a sharp exit one would say.
cteal, while your opinions are valid, you fail to include rising operating profits at almost the marketing cap. Don't be so dismissive afterall it is not one bider but multiple. Free cash flow (pre-dividends, refinancing costs and bond buy-back) up significantly to £83m is not to be sniffed at. Some of the debt that needs to be refinnanced will be replaced by cheaper equity if the private equity owners buy, allowing them to grow the insurance. business. If you take away the debt the business is worth 500-700p.
Shorting occurs when you sell more shares than you own. Since a stock's price is determined by how many people want to buy a share vs. sell one, short selling increases the number of sellers and typically lowers a stock's price.
So the price drifts lower ..why ? the basics of shares, MM were never going to get "excited " by bids of 40p, 60p . £1.00 etc they know the real value and the debt is colossal for a mkt cap of £150m .Who ever does buy the AA ( if indeed they do ) will be looking for two things 1/ to purchase at lowest price possible to make any deal viable ( think about the basic principle ,,car seems cheep at £5000., very economical etc..but needs £50000 spent on it ,simplistic but you get the idea ) 2/ financing the deal . ( again think of the conversation with the bank manager to finance the deal ) MM and the market players are key and MM do not like to be caught the wrong side of the market... (they hate rns in the middle of the day ) so will keep the price to reflect certainty or uncertainly in the price .
And so curiosity has bought us together :-)
Mr Flibbles I do take A top down approach in all my investments which as you say does work and luckily for me successfully over the years.
However I am like a dog with a bone at times and shorting even though I would not short myself continues to stir up my curiosity.