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13.42 - seems another 'small' reincarnation. All the usual traits - this time as a 'dragon' (Sadie, Maddy, And, U, Gabby ( perhaps an 'enamelled dragon'!? :-) VGLA
13.42...appreciate you're welcome to your own opinion.
Ddraig@10:01
It's not a great asset to your profile, that upon receiving some feedback too your posts that you automatically lurch to the filter button.
Says more about you than the post's your respond to.
Forgive me, I must have misunderstood. Ah, yes ............the barbs and the vitriol were actually "information/help".
So predictable. Why debate when one's knowledge is so vastly superior?
Cbaron...
Oh dear the response I thought I’d get...
Good luck with your questions and learning.
You ask for information / help and then criticise the responses like the world owes you.
Thank god for the filter button...goodbye
Ddraig,
You are clearly a man who does not like to be questioned. If one of my team gave such rambling answers to simple questions, I would question their effectiveness.
Q1 - SP - you didn't answer the question.
Q2 - The Bean Counter - all you did was dive me a potted history of DW - you didn't answer the question.
Q3 - Takeover - Thank you, an answer but veiled in superfluous nonsense. "Why would I care?". Because it will fairly obviously impact Q1 and therefore any investment decision.
Q4 - Low Ball Punt - The answer was really in the question, but you got their in the end. A healthy admission that you "could always be wrong". Well done. There is hope for you.
Q5 - "Everything about Everything" - This, of course, was a wind up and appears to have hit the sweet spot.
My critique would be that you ought to answer the questions (in good examination fashion), be more concise and not ramble off into the superfluous.
A fair attempt, if tainted by a little vitriol.
Finally, I know what I know and openly acknowledge that I do not know everything - that's the way to learn!
On company buy-out from a larger production company.
My thoughts are that the Biden Administration are so far not doing well pleasing their voting demographic. They are looking to increase the capital gains tax, they have made an absolute shambles of the boarder crisis they face. Biden himself is not "leading" the country, he has and will continue to make more blunders than Trump did (who would have thought that!). I can see increased provocative aggression already from both China and Russia as they see Biden as a weak hand. I wonder if they will be in power in the next 4 years...
My point. If a major waits this presidency out (Biden or Harris), will the Americans vote in Republican, and will they release the land for exploration again, thus removing our acreage and licences strong negotiating position. The only thing we really have to do is "prove-up" our acreage and negotiate a good deal. And I hope that our acreage is absolutely amazing. I watched the presentation from PANR and you could feel the excitement from the lads over there. Encouraging stuff.
Having read all of that from Ddraig, he definitely comes across as a narcissist with psychological problems. So late at night after several whisky's. Bravo...
Pt2
....gradually looking to diversify.
"If it is highly likely, might it be before or after any further drilling or will someone take a low-ball punt?"
Assuming there will be a peregrine drill next year and possible Charlie-2 dependant on Peregrine analysis and FOs' (or requisite high enough share price to self fund one or both). I very much doubt it'll be before and I'd say 2-5 years. Someone like Conoco and other majors looking in are concerned about the Biden effect and the US's new stronger environmental position in this administration. Conoco have Willow and won't have a decision on the production application till December at the earliest given current developments. Don't think any major is going to trust the Federation so Willow will be a blocker for all, I'm sure you know 88E's land has a fair Federal land constituent. Also I can't see oil companies materially changing their risk appetite to very early in the exploration process despite what the price might look like. I could always be wrong but until you have better data and a flowed well or 2 I doubt you'd get anything over the table and if it did it would look like a distressed offer.
"Do you know everything about everything?"
Hmm - No, but what I can do is ask specific and detailed questions, take evidence and information rationalise it and form a balanced opinion which I'd like to point out could in whole or part not be what actually occurs but at least there is thought and reason behind it.
Have a look at your loose, imprecise, short, generalised questions and then have read the long thought driven responses that provide an angle of insight and then you'll see a significant difference. A director you say? If any of the directors that report into me came to me with like this I'd question their ability not only to do their current job but also any job at that level. Everyone who works for me knows they have to come to me with a view and reasoning. I don't generally care if I support it or not, as long as I can see they have attempted to robustly support their opinion. Having no view and just asking questions that you can't deduce for yourself and therefore lazily want some else to answer is for talentless people, project managers who are just timeline maintainers and audit documentors or low level associates.
So a question for you...
Do you know anything about anything?
PT1
18.02 - Spent quite a few years as a programme director, looking after a number of projects and therefore teams a PM...so as I said, you're full of questions but not great at putting logic into plan and balancing a view. So I guess I'll have to do it for you, again something I'm used to but firstly I'll berate you for poor imprecise questions as I do my minions.
"What is your taken the likely SP trend?" - Over what time frame? When you say likely you mean balance of probability as clearly it won't go continuously up or continuously down.
"What is your take on DW leaving and being replaced by a bean counter" - Its a company, these things happen. So you should have worked out from your research that DW was brought in to redefine, recapitalise and redevelop opportunities. He's a business, relationship and risk developer which he has effectively done that over 7 years. He funded and entered project Icewine with Burgundy with PB, SS et al. He increased WI participation after another institution pulled out, bought more acres, entered a number of other prospects such as Yukon, Winx, bought XCD for Peregrine, bought the Umiat field. He's fostered a relationship is Erik Opstad who is generally regarded as probably the best and most experience ops manager in Alaska. we have Icewine (which includes Charlie-1 Seabee and torok, central leases with possibly Kaparuk and SMD and we have derisked the HRZ), Yukon to be consolidated with one of Erik's companies, we have Peregrine with Merlin and Harrier that if commercial to link to the Umiat acquisition reserves. The company has its prospects, land and development options now in place. I think there's limited appetite or ability for the company to look for additional risk. Nows the time to run through the process steps to get these to a saleable package. A CFO with solid experience and 4 years with the company at DW side is a pretty reasonable prospect.
DW has concentrated on 88E in that 7 years but his skillset has completed the task sort. I'm also sure he wants a change and capitalise on other opportunities for himself which as a company director be may have been precluded from during his tenure. Of course you'll never know the full details.
" What do you think is the likelihood of the company being taken over" - again over what timeframe and again do you mean balance of probabilities? Do you distinguish in your mind between takeover in a success case or a failure case? Would it make a difference and why do you care? - But yes, I think they will get taken over (but not tomorrow however before the sun explodes) for a number of key reasons - primarily, until we have evidence to the contrary, it's what they have always said = fine, prove up and sell secondly, its a pond consolidated to very big fish and always will be as sizeable discovery assets diminish, the big bought have deep pockets and what else can they do to maintain they long term mission even if they are gradually looking to di
Fri 18.02
Ddraig,
Development Director in Property Industry - so not far off the mark. My site DD and SI work is comprehensive and I know how to interpret the results. Yes, there are many questions and I make a point of developing a plan. Oil exploration is not my bag and, yes, more questions than answers. Can you answer any of them?
What is your take on the likely SP trend? What is your take on DW leaving and being replaced by a bean counter? What do you think is the likelihood of the company being taken over? If it is highly likely, might it be before or after any further drilling or will someone take a low-ball punt?
If you don't consider the relevant questions and options how can you possibly determine a plan.
My questions are all relevant to how an investor might approach this business right now.
I'm not looking for answers per se, just considering relevant matters and balancing likely risk to determine when and if to sell or invest.
Sorry if it wasn't helpful to you. Do you know everything about everything?
Ddraig,
Just took a look at your posting history - other than getting banned for a couple of days for abusive posts - what is your contribution?
10.28 - cbaron - you must be a project manager...ask a lot of questions that people already know they need the answers to yet can't answer 1 single thing using logic or insight...there's no value add here...well done.
It is on an inevitable drift down of around 10% a day as people get out before they are trapped.
What any sort of positive rns would do is anyone's guess, but as they couldn't complete a flow test then what more can they really say?
Looks like we're in the doldrums for the short to medium term and it appears sensible to assume that the SP will continue to retrace.
Clearly, there is evidence that makes the company confident that Merlin was the best drill yet, but that is not exactly set against set against a history of major successes. There appears to be oil there, but is it commercially viable to extract?
We await some more results to confirm or deny the extent of oil, but it is clear that further exploration work will be required next winter, to confirm or otherwise. It seems inevitable that this will require a cash raise of some description. Will this offset any upside? Yes, most definitely, if results confirmed from this year and next year's further work demonstrate a commercial find. If no, then where does 88e go from here?
The potential upside may come if the results from this year are good and a suitor may be sufficiently interested in taking the company out - but at what price? We are still in speculative territory as to the commerciality and this will almost certainly dent he offer price.
As to questions about our finance man leading the company? He'll be needed to negotiate a sale and a cash raise. The question is, who will lead the further exploration strategy in DW's absence. One might read into the appointment that 88e don't envisage any more exploration. Why not? Has a suitor already been identified?
All conjecture, of course, and more questions than answers.
Good luck, whatever your take.