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Thank you very much for your response garrym79, it helps me better understand what has happened.
Pt2 Now the discussion id flowing with lots on interesting and alternative thoughts....my impatience meter is now on 11 ;-)
Well at least we have something complex and interesting to look forward to.
Everyone has always expected the drill and flow test to re rate the share price but maybe it'll be the next RNS that provides us with a huge resource and maybe even rewrites the NPR-A plays that us and others should be looking for...
Time will tell GLA.
08.07 - Thanks for you thoughts Garrym , always interested in alternative and structured view where I might have been making assumptions. I fully accept that I may well be off the mark as I've learned from RNS, the more information the easier it is to take your first understanding and not see the subtleties of the language and technical information given also harder it is to cross compare to pre drill presentation...So to be clear I am not saying I'm right, its just my take.
I guess I got to my thoughts based on the following.
1. In the preamble presentations to the drill they talk the 3 main targets, N20, N18 and N14. Former 2 were hypothesised to be analogous to Willow and last commonality to Harrier.
1. The N14 was the deepest target and we didn't go material past total depth. This is hypothesised to be on the Harrier Shelf break and therefore a Harpoon analogy. I believe from this, I'm taking this as the deepest target 88e discuss and one which wasn't test due to the operational issues.
2. The Surprise zone from what I can gather sits above N14 somewhere as that also couldn't be tested.
3. Other prospective zones higher up could be tested and were low saturation.
I've read over the 3 past RNSs and can see why you have the opinion that we can't fully understand how the actual results map to the pre-drill presentation.
However a couple of bits of information, maybe not definitely, point to the N20 and N18 not being as good as hoped -
- They have indicated that depending on map/remap Harrier might up high graded for 2022. You could easily argue that its efficient to do that anyway with encouraging results from Merlin, particularly in the N14 to get a step out understanding and in the event the surprise zone maps up to Harrier also. This is not saying Merlin -1 wasn't great because if the N14 and another zone are that decent then its still a result...I don't care if they don't find good results in 'Primary' targets as long as they find something good in something!
- I'm with you that I suspect the surprise zone, really is that if they are surmising that this prospect hasn't been targeted in the NPR-A before...(remember thats a statement covering not just our land but a number of other companies and wells). I like the Torok idea, especially after the understanding from Charlie-1 ie gas and condensate given the additional burial event and also the PANR presentations speaking to their hypothesis of more oil bearing in the Torok at shallow depths. If the surprise zone does look like it could be torok in the NPR-A That to me sounds like a major information discovery that I'm sure would hold interest to many other explorers.
I also concede I might have been a bit swift to write off the N20 and N18 target, although if I have to make a call, I'm still sceptical of them given it would appear the shallower drill targets where the shallower results were the less encouraging the results.
Now the discussion is flowing with lots of intere
Thank you for your posts garrym. VGLA
08.07 - I’ll respond a bit more shortly. Just a quick note. I corrected point 3 to read N20 and N18
No need to apologise, to many on here are disingenuous. Your posts speak for them selves, and that’s not me blowing smoke up your back side pal lol.
Look at the hassle i got, when i called out some on here just for saying imho and view that the sp will retest and or break the 1.5p support...proven right of course. All i was pointing out was to be mindful of the elements that could and would drive the sp up or down and just be ready for the reversals...the volatility with 88e when nearer results gets extremely hectic and hard to call, although some on here would be ****y and say they got in on the dips and sold on the tops..every time, yeh right.
Have to say now that some dust is settling for now, the quality of posts by the regulars has been spot on..and it is Reassuring that we have a broad spectrum of people posting their knowledgeable insights in highlighting the pros and cons in mitigating the risks while highlighting the technical aspects of potential new prospects TBC.
Dazzle
17:33 Sure LSE have had to buy a new cloud for my filter list, but only one green bar today (so far) and lots of decent posts and comments, long may it continue :-))
Yours, rodrod1, are far from drivel. However I've never had such a huge filter list for a share (despite some of our previous encounters!)
;-)))
12.31
I apologise for my drivel :)
@garrym79: absolutely love these objective, detailed insights. Thank you.
After a few weeks of drivel its very welcome.
ATB
GS
11.49 - Worth noting that finding a good target and having operational issues is far better than not finding what you want but it being operationally sound...for obvious reasons. You can fix any operational issues next time but if the oil isn't there then thats forever! ;-)
11.35 - Very much appreciated my side....and anyone who applies reasonable and rational intelligence to the board...
11:35
Thank you very much Garry, I know you are a reluctant poster at times due to comments made by a few in the past but I am sure a huge majority appreciate your posting and of course we can always use your posts as a platform to research to increase our own personal knowledge.
11.56 -
3. should be N20 and N18
Thank you for a return to realistic, detailed conversation.
11.35 - Thanks Garrym, very helpful and aligned to my way of thinking.
PANR have had similar issues in the Talitha after a forced stop....only difference between them and us was time. Whilst disappointing, we had to buy XCD, plan the well, find a FO partner and then got caught within a left field political stunt...we have to accept we've, net, done an amazing job to get to where we are with Merlin given the challenges...the fact it also looks like it could well be a winning is really amazing.
I think your last comments point to what I think, being:
1. The bottom zone is the N14 (a Harrier target)
2. The surprise zone is....a surprise and needs remapping to see if that is likely to be at Harrier (company thinks so given their statement about it extending across the acreage)
3. N20 and N14 - sounds like it didn't hit the spot given Willow.
Conclusion in my mind is high grade a Harrier drill for 2022 and use that as the step-out, or as I've said before - step-in given N14 is actually a Harrier main target, (maybe with a visit after to sidetrack and flow the lower Merlin targets. (ie a reverse of this years plan).
Thats before any consideration too Charlie-2 or what might be targeted for the SMD and Kaparuk in your central leases after debrief of Talitha well.
There is sooo much positivity to look forward to if people can adjust their vision a little further upon the road...
Are you inclined to agree?
09.22 - thanks Garrym. Would appreciate your further thoughts on the RNS.
Without having direct industry knowledge I have spoken to my contacts. Whilst disappointing, they all said the operational issues are quite normal. They also said it would be company suicide to say this is the best we’ve seen without knowing the data they have can be used to independently provide a very positive analysis RNS. We have the first run wirel line and can certainly get a good understand of certain characteristics plus a remap of the extent of the new zone...given where we are the next RNS is key
Us long term holders have to be honest with ourselves. This is the oil exploration game and there is absolutely no guarantee of success - quite the opposite really most small cap oil explorers fail. So it could be argued we've done quite well to be where we are now. We have to take responsibility for our investment/gambling decisions.
But let's be honest in allegedly "the most oilest place on earth" 88 energy hasn't had the success we all hoped for after multiple rolls of the dice. Thus far they haven't been able to prove up even a single cubic nanometre of oil or gas.
But we do have inhouse estimates of '1 tcf of prospective gas' and other potentials. Lots of potentials and prospects but nothing proven as of yet. We've had suboptimal drilling positions, no horizontal drilling and power cuts (no back up generator?).
We haven't proven up anything yet. So how valuable are our assets? How much would any interested party be willing to pay for these potentials and prospects that they will have to prove up themselves? (These are genuine questions and I am very interested to read people's thoughts on this)
At the moment I lack confidence that it would be for many multiples of the current market cap but then again I'm not privy to the data & I'm no oil and gas expert. I'm happy to be proven wrong.
On the plus side, this time around as of yet we haven't collapsed to sub 1p share prices. Then again past performance is not indicative of future results. I do wonder if the market is giving us a fairer valuation compared to previous years. Perhaps 1.xxp is the new suppressed share price.
The US market adds a new dimension to things and I believe they have the potential take us to the next level. Perhaps they already have. Of course us lay people don't know whats going on in the background. We still may be greatly rewarded by holding onto our 88 energy shares - or not.
This company can drill anywhere in there acreage and revisit any previuosly drilled well and it will always be he same reaction.
If they succeed they make even more money if they fail they continue to draw there fat wage packets.
We the small investor are either lucky and have sold or unlucky and held.
Nothing strange at all.