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V111 although my opinion is that ultimately we will be paid, I have to accept that Alaska is potentially in a worse state than 2016 when repayments were first vetoed and do share your concern as to viability of bond plan in current times, indeed I have made that point myself.
Just another cross we have to bear I am afraid but it's a heavy one and has impacted greatly on our finances.
What seemed in hindsight a great plan loan backed by SOA and with up to 75% support in respect of exploration expenditure has ultimately not helped us a lot.
Without the Forrer lawsuit this would now be history.
~~~ "Your comments are patently untrue V111!"~~~
jiddy 123 : I object to your assertion that my comments are untrure .
I simply posted my point of view based on my observations here in the USA .
I made it crystal clear that this was my opinion :
`Fwiw : my view regarding SoA Credits - Forget them !
I doubt they will ever be paid .`
I then went on to give my reasons .
My reasoning may end up being flawed but my statements were NOT untrue .
I can tell you that irrespective of the troubles engulfing the Oil Industry , The USA is a very troubled Country and as this year unfolds the consequences of C19, Unemployment , Bankruptcies and Debt are likely to develop into a dramatic financial catastrophe.
A legal agreement is all very well but how will SoA ever be able to manage a bond issue float in that climate ?
I repeat ; my view is that it will probably never happen which does not make my statement "Untrue".
Nice item of history from 2015
All those hoped for horizontal wells were 'creaming the curve' as PB termed it.
My figure is to prove HRZ exists as a commercial oil flow - the first well. )))
That presentation was 5 years ago.
What has happened since then is substantial drilling technology improvement. Longer underground reach.
Should a first commercial HRZ oil flow be achieved, the SP is likely to be 3p or more. Hence CR is much less painful.
Also, FO seems quite possible after Lab Results in few weeks.
Anyway, 10 wells is not necessary. If we did three each with a few lateral drills, that would put 88E into a very strong position.
Even one working well....
Phrontist
Your comments are patently untrue V111!
The SOA are committed to repaying Oil Tax Credits, and the current Judgement is in their favour to issue Bonds. This Judgement was appealed and heard in September 2019. We are STILL waiting for the relevant Judges to make a ruling.
Phrontist, how did you estimate that $50M. It seems to be $300M out compared to numbers previously presented by the company. See slide 4 of below:
http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/01682021.pdf
19:04 probably correct.
19:54 The State of Alaska is obliged to repay the tax credits and there is statutory calculation in respect of repayment that has been budgeted for but will take another ~4 years to complete, the court case revolves around whether a bonds scheme can raise finance to in a one off lump sum, one way or the other the tax credits will be repaid it is just when.
19:04
We have spent over £100 million.
To have proven HRZ would be less than half that.
My rough estimates.
Our position today is waiting for Charlie-1 results:
Will their be encouraging information for a definite commercial conventional drill?
Will HRZ Lab Tests indicate that it too can be commercial?
If HRZ comes out strongly in the lead, this suggests we should have focused on it years ago until fully proven.
Then look at conventional....
Phrontist
Just looking in to gauge the latest gossip ~~~
Fwiw : my view regarding SoA Credits - Forget them !
I doubt they will ever be paid .
From what I see and hear the National debt crisis in the US , for the moment , is on the back burner .
All States are seriously impacted with huge debts over a long period of time which have now been compounded with the Covid crisis , unimaginable unemployment , and an economy that effectively prohibits raising taxes through the usual channels .
Several Staes are bankrupt . Alaska is most certainly in a very difficult position . The Current unemployment support program will end in July , and even the easing of lockdown is unlikely to bring much comfort short term as so many businesses have disappeared .
Add to all that a Nation (Once the world`s leading economy) in both Social and Political crisis and confusion , an election in November and then there are disturbing World events , China ...etc . I could go on , you all get the picture .
Bottom line : NO Oil Credits from SoA .
Even if they could pay they will likely obfuscate and litigate indefinitely .
On a happier note I see your merger with XCD concludes at the end of the month , surely there will be benefits for 88 shareholders as the combined businesses will undoubtedly deliver further FO opportunities for the year end / early next year .
Odds are shortening that they`ll get to that Oil eventually .
Best of luck to all invested .
I could go
If DW hadn’t diversified and did HRZ only you would have likely lost your investment by now.
My approach has been to accept mistakes of the past and see if we can achieve commercial oil flow.
This is the key to underpinning any SP rise
What is DW responsible for? This is an important question.
How can we assess his progress against targets?
He just goes off and spends money with no advance informing to shareholders. There are no specified targets. In his eyes, he is making progress as opposed to achieving or failing specified targets.
My beef has always been, HE should not have diversified towards conventional until unconventional was resolved, understood, achieved or failed.
The original 88E mission was HRZ unconventional.
88E shareholders could have funded that to a conclusion, possibly by a year or two ago.
But the shareholding cannot fund two streams of exploration whilst both were, and still are, failing.
Buying all this land....
Buying Yukon....
Doing Western Blocks, and failing....
All of these were decisions by DW.
Now we dilute 88E shares for XCD....
I am sure there is commercial oil there, but can we fund the number of Wells required to prove it?
Whilst follow up on Charlie-1 for???
The company needs a Buyer, no question.
Just like XCD needed a Buyer!!!
Meanwhile, I feel positive about HRZ from Charlie-1
Back on track with our original Mission....
Oil prices will recover over 12 to 24 months.
About our timescale if HRZ with horizontal can produce...
Phrontist
17:07 I agree DW is the man at the top and so shoulders ultimate responsibility but it's also important to understand that in the operational side of the business he will be led to his decisions by the information and opinions of others who are qualified in reservoir engineering and oil geology etc.
DW has been responsible for taking us into Alaska, doing the jv deal with BEX and rightly or wrong building the acreage including some 3D, doing the deal for Winx and negotiating the FO with PMO and ultimately raising the cash to keep the ship moving if ever so slowly it seems.
As I have said many times if the explorations credits scheme had continued, even if SOA pulled the scheme but paid as per historically so we cleared our debt and avoided hefty interest payments things may have been happier, instead we have had 3 + years of interest payments that may reasonable not been expected, that plus the loss of Paul has changed the picture some what.
Look at the original Great Bear, BRPC and other junior explorers - Alaska is tough place, the exploration credits scheme mitigated much of that.
I am not apologising for DW's salary, all I am saying is there are a lot of factors at play here that some either are not aware of or choose to forget .
I have tried to understand the situation we are in by being objective, and not allowing my opinion of Wall cloud my judgement. Over the last several days I have read posts from individuals whose opinions I respect, but it has not proven helpful. The reasons for drill failures have been put down to the late PB, PMO and science. I can see the logic in such arguments. They make commercial sense. This leaves me with one question: What is Wall actually responsible for? He can point the finger regarding dusters, and continue as before. I cannot see this logic. The one thing common to every failure is the presence of Wall at the helm. However, he is not responsible for the failure. He is the man at the top. How is he not responsible?