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Hi Keefy, mate absolutely not having a dig, I get what your saying as any reasonable person would. I guess as it's always been, public company, public money and an individual choice.
Hi WAaussie Fri 16:50
Sorry for the delayed response, but he we go.
Responding to "Do you ever think we do anything that creates shareholder value in the long term? It appears quite weak based on crap they promised months ago.
WAaussie, that all depends what you consider long term mate; 6 weeks, 6 months or 6 years.
I have been looking back through 6 years of Investor Updates from 2015, starting with this -
2015 - Icewine #1 exploration well spud October 22, 2015 - targeting billion-barrel potential shale oil prize ;
right through to this last year -
2020 - Merger of 88 Energy and XCD Energy creates a substantially enhanced Alaska focussed oil exploration and appraisal company.
Alaska North Slope: Four Farm-outs Underway Operator on Multiple World Class Assets
Project Peregrine: Recent addition – drilling planned early 2021
• Adds ~195,000 highly prospective exploration acres in NPR-A region of the North Slope of Alaska
• Large prospective resource, located on trend to recent discoveries
• Permitting commenced and farm-out discussions underway for drilling of two wells in 1H2021
Project Icewine: Charlie-1 Condensate Discovery / Further Farm-out to Commence
• Condensate discovery in Torok Fm announced April 2020, oil pay interpreted in Seabee Fm
• Excellent oil saturations indicated by core analysis in Seabee and Torok in Charlie-1
• Preferred drilling location away from Charlie-1 – more oily, with better reservoir quality
• Farm-out process to be relaunched with integration of positive Charlie-1 data
Yukon Leases: Existing Discovery – Interpretation Complete on 3D seismic (2018)
• ~90 million barrels mean prospective oil resource (100% 88E)
• Negotiations underway with nearby resource owners to aggregate and farm-out
Icewine: HRZ Liquids Rich Resource Play
• De-risked by three wells: Icewine#1, Icewine#2 and Charlie#1
• Results from Charlie-1 analysis of HRZ expected to facilitate farm-out process
The cycle is:- obtain somewhere or something to explore, explore it until you find something worthwhile & then monetize it.
Personally, I think we have done that to the point where we have various projects on the cusp of monetization.
We haven't drilled many holes but have been really close to discovery on 3 from 6 , if I am not mistaken.
Not many fast results in this High Risk/High Reward industry, but I do believe the company have brought us a long way in a relatively short time period & not much further to go.
Have a read of the Chairman's Letter on Page 3 from the Annual Report, December 2014, with a new company name & a new set of board members including one, D. Wall, ready to do business on the North Slope.
I think we are doing OK WAaussie but I, like you, get frustrated at the timing of announcements sometimes, but it is what it is & think (hope) we are going to be pleasantly surprised.
Gotta say, the attitude is Gold. Lots of rain tomorrow so I will open the valve next week. I do hope people are rewarded here, they deserve to be. That's dependant on decisions and some luck. About time I guess. A company such as this needs results once their cap raises have reached the limit. All the best of luck.
Don’t worry he won’t read that, yeah right.
22.59 Typically aggressive response from Ddraig who doesn’t like it when he his sometimes factually incorrect posts are challenged. Expects people to respect him by counting the degrees in his family and referencing how he knows someone who works in the oil industry PMSL.
I can tell you I am far from upset with the outcome of Talitha, the market will catch up eventually. It was a great result for PANR and possibly 88e as described in April’s webinar.
I have asked a legitimate question regards the withdrawal of APDC and more importantly the price of the deal. Whilst Ddraig likes to think he is a balanced poster his summary of 88e goes something like this:
Dave Wall is like Bill Gates (DW knows who Ddraig is by the way, whoopee)
Dave Wall leaving doesn’t matter
Failing to drill Harrier doesn’t matter.
APDC leaving doesn’t matter
150% overspend on the Merlin drill doesn’t matter.
Relinquishing leases with possibly a couple of Billion OIP of the BFF doesn’t matter.
He is on to his second moniker on ADVFN in a matter of months, very credible. Ridicules my ‘tin pot maths’ which ironically I based on the same maths which DW (did I mention he knows Ddraig/OBAR/Molloka) used when he discussed 88e’s 200MMBO internal target at a meeting Ddraig was at (don’t think he was listening though) Admittedly I am more conservative on NPV’s than DW. Luckily for him it turns out the OTC crowd know less about oil than Ddraig (and his friend). Don’t think he capitalised like Brom did though, literally a poor man’s Brombarb.
Waussie. Theres a good feller. Would you mind leaving a little prezzy on DW's lawn from me please if it's no trouble? I did make £1800 over his tenure and a substantial free ride over 5 years of heart ache. Perhaps a can of fosters? It's as good as p&$$.
With regards to our prospects? Still positive. Still confident? The worlds a fickle place . They need this oil. Make em pay when the price is right . I'm in no rush. If I'm dead, my family can wait too. But one day it'll be zillions. It cost me nowt in the end thank god.
18.54 - Rabbit is just upset that PANR, despite all the ramping 6-9 months ago is -25% on pre drill, to summarise, a significantly worse performance than 88E over the same period....fact.
Ps I blocked him a looooong time ago so I don't have to listen to and drivel....
Keefy, The Pikka point was to highlight its highly unlikely that a reserves classification will be achieved in the time frame of the deal. Likewise a non farmout sale within the 2 year time frame looks unlikely . If your are on the cusp of proving a significant discovery at Merlin why have APDC sold it so cheaply? They were a SPV specifically designed to make a profit from Peregrine and it looks like they have walked away with a smaller upfront payment than they spent on the drill. PANR’s 1% ORRI was in exchange for about $2.5M, so if we use that as read across it doesn’ t look like a great deal for APDC if this drill has indeed created significant value as you expect.
Hi Rab79 16:31,
Either this whole investment is One Big Charade or it is something really special.
Independent Resource Assessment of Merlin & Harrier put the mean value at over 1 Billion Barrels.
We also have Umiat, which does not form part of the deal, that has flow tested oil on 2 different occasions spanning 50 years.
Following the $14M cash payment, the deal offers up a maximum of $22.5M, for ~10% of 2P reserves up to 250 million barrels, which equates to ~10 cents/barrel (Not inc $14M), within 3 years. This is only on Proven & Probable reserves (2P).
We were within decreasing days of a discovery at Merlin & given the original timetable & no halts, we perhaps would have had the time to do a side-track drill when we hit hole deterioration at TD & prove the discovery. Who knows?
The initial results & positive responses from DW & AG, lead me to think we have hit the spot at the 1st attempt at Merlin. It says in the ANN that communication was established with the reservoir in the deepest zone of interest, before the power & tooling issue occurred.
Comparing Pikka after 12 plus wells with little old us with 2 + 1 drills @ Icewine, 1 @ Winx & 1 @ Peregrine, plus 2 astute purchases @ Yukon & Umiat, both with proven resources, is not really comparing like with like. Apart from Icewine 1 & 2, we have managed to secure farmout or JV partnerships to fund 1 hole per season drilling. What does that say about what our potential is?
Looking at Peregrine / Umiat right now, why wouldn’t an Oil Major want that piece of action in their portfolio, even if they didn’t touch it for 5 or 6 years?
I remain extremely optimistic about this next stage of our adventure.
Just hope Spinefx doesn't see my comment and accuse me of being an Aussie
Just so everyone knows, I have stopped fertilizing his lawn. Just Been throwing dog **** from the park into his back yard. Dog throw wand works magic. Heaps in his gutters. 30mm on Sunday.
As everyone knows DW meant everything to me. Check in, check out, bless that man. Well... It's hard in West Perth.
Have to say it....can't recall one schedule that has been on point other than ASX forms.
Keefy, do you ever think we do anything that creates shareholder value in the long term. Not so sure anymore. It appears quite weak based on crap they promised months ago. Been the line of this stylish company since it's inception. Never ever meeting targets. Key to a project manager is never say you can deliver if you can't. No.1 broken many times.
Keefy, do you believe there will be 100M reserves by 2024? Seems unlikely when you consider Pikka after 12plus wells still only has contingent classification.
I think that was just for show and in fairness it seems to have worked. Can you also see peregrine getting bought out within two years? That might only be two more drills. I doubt the curve will have been creamed by then.
To me it looks like the cash payment will be the vast majority of the deal.
Hi Rab79 20:45
By July 2024 APDC will be paid US$10m
• gross 2P reserves = 100 million barrels
+ US$12.50m IF
• gross 2P reserves >100 million barrels, <=250 million barrels
o 10% of gross sale if >49% sold within 24 months
o 1.5% overriding royalty interest on all future production.
That's how I interpret the deal. Open to correction
Appears to be a decent deal to all concerned.
Plenty to be bullish about, the very fact that they are talking 2P volumes of this magnitude within a 3 year window.
Is it a concern about the £14m? That might be the cash but they also got shares, royalties and bonus payments. If this is a gusher, I imagine we'll all be complaining about the terrible deal we struck here, making them rich for doing no work.
13.56 Surely it’s a concern APDC only wanted an upfront payment of $14M after spending $20M on the drill?
12:35 we managed a FO with APDC based on interpretation of historical data and trends, we now have more data and that is being processed as we speak, industry will know what it is looking for (I hope) :-)
On 10th November 2020 DW announced the commencement of the FO at Project Icewine. I understand this normally takes 6-8 months to arrange so an announcement could happen any time now. My question is will we have enough time to FO Peregrine considering we still haven't got the final results needed for the FO as the final petrophysical interpretation could be July/August.