Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Would like to hope OW knows his stuff ;)
He was the only poster I read that seemed to interpret the Ice2 updates correctly and give a heads up that things weren't quite right.
What's the mantra on this forum?
Read above, below and between the lines!?
I don’t think it’s ridiculous at all. I’m not saying it’s 99% COS because this would never be given to a well at this stage, but I’m saying that with all the factors in play the COS is a high as it can be in similar circumstances. We’ve got proven oil and recent successful drills in the same target relatively close by. There’s good data which multiple parties have worked on the optimise the drill location. Everything we know about the drill is positive, just waiting to see if it will flow commercially. I peg the COS in the 70-80 region. We already have confirmation that it is greater than 50
Premier oil are struggling with their balance sheet due to heavy debt of around $2 billion or so. The company is very cautious about spending money and very selective to choose assets. They were chasing for assets in Alaska for the last 2 years and finally signed a deal for Charlie-1. If PMO paying the total cost of the drill and farmed-in for Charlie after 2 years of due diligence, they must be very convinced, otherwise, they won't take the risk to carry 88E cost as well. Also, Two of their Ex-BP executives have extensive working experience in Alaska, and they knew well about the geology of Alaska.
Premier Oil, which will pay the full costs of an appraisal well, dubbed “Charlie-1”, up to a total of US$23mln to test the reservoir deliverability of the Malguk-1 discovery made by BP in 1991.
PMO must be convinced it is value for money .
If we are talking about chance of success we are talking commercial flows of oil. This is not a science well it’s an appraisal well. We should certainly have a chance of success from DW at some point. The statement “ I think COS Q1 2020 is pretty much as high as you can get on a drill” is ridiculous.
Bridge - the 2020 drill will do a micro stimulation and attempt to flow the well (hence ‘appraising’ the well). The only reason they won’t flow the well in 1Q20 is if no oil is encountered. If the well demonstrates not only oil in place but movable hydrocarbons then they will return and do a horizontal in 2021, likely to be from the same wellbore.
I think COS Q1 2020 is pretty much as high as you can get on a drill, but yes that is the chance of finding oil on the drill. I don't believe we will get a COS figure on this from the company(s). We will be taking data and coring to establish the best positioning for the flow testing Q1 2021, the COS here is much more of an unknown. Once analysis is complete we should get a COS figure on that most important drill. Just to note among the many factors that make up the COS calculation the performance of local drills is a key factor. We've seen a lot of success locally and as OW points out the issues with oil saturation on WINX (other factors where quite encouraging) shouldn't be an issue at this location. I would be surprised to see a COS at sub 50% for the 2021 testing.
Not knocking OW obviously has some knowledge - Just be cautious
Chance of success - are we talking that we will find oil or actually the chance of commercial success?
Looks positive at this stage based on this being an appraisal of an existing discovery, plus our own analysis based on modern 3D and seismic inversion, plus, plus the fact that Premier have vetted and obviously liked the odds.
BUT until we drill and flow test there must always be risk that the discovery will not be commercial.
Not certain how relevant Icewine#2 is to with Charlie#1 different targets, even if we are taking cores from HRZ.
Plenty in wiki on risk.
http://88ewiki.wikidot.com/drilling
valuable information share by olderwiser. It seems like he knows his stuff. According to him (which make sense), CoS for Charlia-1 is lot higher than 50%. and also, good detail analysis with regards to presentation slides.
Below is his msg, (copy/paste)
"The statement quoted below from D Walls podcast gives a very encouraging COS (I did check that Dave stands behind this statement) IW2 establishes the existing comparator is 50% COS, if the comparative risk is much lower, then COS is much higher.
"Its appraisal drilling for the most part, whilst its still risky, we are talking a much lower level of risk by comparison, PARTICULARLY TO ANY OF OUR PREVIOUS WELLS, but upside remains at the upper end of the scale""
0801 B-Dogg
1st probability map is headed "Top Mid Schrader Bluff Sst Prob_oil volume"
OW seems very knowledgable. Here is another insight where, from memory, he seems much more enthusiastic in the run-up to this drill than he was in the run-up to Winx. Just substitute Premier for Pioneer ( must have been having an off day. lol)
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-project-icewine-conventional-farmout-executed.4922377/page-68?post_id=40848779#.XaQ5zkYzbIU
JJ
A nice read for a Monday morning. Where is the first probability map from, can’t quite see it properly on my phone.
Apologies if already posted
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-project-icewine-conventional-farmout-executed.4922377/page-72?get_post=true#.XaO10EYzbIU
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-project-icewine-conventional-farmout-executed.4922377/page-74?get_post=true#.XaO2aEYzbIU
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-project-icewine-conventional-farmout-executed.4922377/page-75?get_post=true#.XaO2jEYzbIU