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Reflecting on last week’s presentation it’s surprising the presenter who has worked with DW for a number of years has never heard him say the ‘oil is there’ before. It was almost the tag line in the run up to Charlie 1.
Much of the presentation focussed on the oil saturation’s which look good, but were also expected to look good, but the same can not be said for the porosity data. Pre-drill the Seabee targets were quoted as having 11% porosity and hence be ‘a bit more challenging’ and that it would ‘be harder to make them work’. This coupled with not intersecting the reservoir optimally meant it was a tertiary target. Indeed DW commented that the ‘reason the well wasn’t designed for these targets is because of the porosity, it’s quite low’. However it was stated that the Torok might unlock the Seabee in that it could pay for the infrastructure, perhaps similar to the argument of conventional unlocking the unconventional.
Looking at the latest data it would appear the porosity in the Torok is significantly worse than pre-drill expectations averaging under 8% in Charlie 1, where pre drill expectations were a ‘porosity up to 18%. Looking at the Heavenly data for the Torok released in May the porosity averages just under 10% , lower than pre drill expectations of the Seabee at Charlie 1 which were quoted by DW as being ‘quite low’
The Seabee porosity data is also worse in Charlie 1 than pre-drill expectations, averaging under 6% compared to the expected 11%. Assuming the Seabee data for Heavenly is contained in the chart on Slide 7 of last weeks presentation, it doesn’t look like the porosity will be significantly better at the Heavenly location when comparing to pre-drill expectations at Charlie 1. Indeed some of the higher porosity readings at Heavenly appear to associated with cores which showed minimal or no oil saturation’s.
Of interest to me was the comparison to PANR’s Alkaid well as this data had not been previously released. As stated in the presentation PANR’s successfully flow tested a 6ft section in the Nanashuk and this has formed the basis of the recent LKA CPR, which verified ~1B BBC’s OIP, NPVs of ~$8, recovery factor of ~10% and break even of ~$40 per barrel. I think they key point with Alkaid is that it’s location next to the Dalton/TAPS allow for the stated NPVs and break even price despite the lower recovery rates. Furthermore the current OIP only accounts for ~50% of the isopach and the recovery rates are deemed conservative. Therefore given Charlie/Heavenly don’t benefit from the location they will likely need better reservoir quality to be comparable on a commercial basis. Premier’s previously released conservative NPVs of ~$4 per barrel using recovery rates of ~25% in the Torok (targeting 250M reserves from >1B Bbls OIP) seem to reflect this. Given the above comparison of porosity data pre and post drill, this may point to why Premier exited Area A and also why Peregrine is the most likely farm out opportunity
Of late, I would have to say Dave is or has been somewhat preoccupied. Never been totally occupied though. As an MD the announcements could have been of a higher volume (some sort of volume) and substance instead of the last 100 he issued with xcd takeover. Instead we are reading these through articles and threads as to what the fk we may or may not be doing. Oh well. Frustrating, if we last until next year, voting again and here we go again... Hi Dave MD you bald headed useless fck. OK. Another few years...
I think we are well beyond proof reading and grammatical errors on a board here Cadellin. I think the company, attributed value, decisions and general heading should attract more attention. Maybe not though..
1 last point on this subject. Investors should be aware 88e can now fall 50% in value to ,014 and Wall will still be in profit at the price the XCD shares were at when before the 140% bonus he decided to apply. Win win for Wall. And let’s not forget XCD were a failing company, small amount of cash, no way of raising fresh cash, no hope of FO (they’d been trying 12 month) and no 1 else interested in a takeover, - 140% premium? Shocker. Have a good day and good luck here
Hi Avi15 Nice to have you on board. I agree with you. I have also said this before. It’s a benefit DW has a large shareholding and with a large shareholding it makes sense for DW to do as much as possible to get the SP up. The higher it goes the more we all benefit.
Mr Trump, appreciate your prompt reply. Making a profit on the stock market is what we all strive to do. He hasnt made anything till he crystalises the profit . If 88 goes tits up before he sells he has made nothing. Mr Wall obviously had a strategy in place in buying xcd , his motives only known to him however he has not broken any laws. Its also a contentious point with a number of shareholders in Australia and fairly so. It in fact gives me some confidence in the company that a MD has such a significant holding . Chers Avi15
Of course he bought his XCD shares at market value, that’s clear, no argument. He then received 2.4 88e shares for every one purchased in XCD, same as your good self. So, the extra shares he received amount to 140% clear profit, so you can argue they weren’t free, or, he just awarded himself 140% instant profit on his XCD holding. Whichever way you look at it it’s the same outcome-140% profit on those XCD shares straight into Walls pocket, fair enough if shareholders sit easy with this, personally I think it’s shocking behaviour by an MD/CEO
Gday Mr Trump. It is incorrect that any xcd shareholder received any free shares. As one of the many xcd shareholders who accepted 88s offer we initially purchased said shares at a cost,market value at the time and they were then converted on take over to 88 energy shares what was deemed at a fair price. I will concede that buying the tails at .001 i did on paper make a substancial profit as im yet to crystalise any profit. Mr Wall did not , did not receive any free share on his xcd holdings sir. Cheers avi15.
Chriev1 At least you attempt debate, no name calling kids stuff, I applaud you for that. So, using your car wash scenario, that would only work if the car once returned was worth 140% more minus the cost of car wash than when they took it, would you agree? Talk later