The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
'Successful Hickory-1 flow test confirms discovery and producibility of light oil, NGLs and gas from multiple reservoirs'
If you can produce something surely you can sell it?
On another topic;
Umiat with 94mmboe flows at 200bopd, I take it that is from a vertical well?
Icewine West is stated to have a prospective resource of 1.1B mmo net.
Project Leonis: Targeted farm-out commenced with multiple parties engaged in data room review.
My guess is the multiple parties engaged regarding Leonis are also looking at Phoenix, a ready made audience.
10:27
gemstar - I do not know if Geodes currently hold 88E or PANR shares. What I am clear about is that he has posted on socal media that he initially invested in 88E. Subsequent to his investment in 88E he posted he was unaware of PANR's existence when making that initial investment. He also posted that he has invested in PANR shares.
For your statement about Geodes not owning 88E or PANR shares to be accurate then he must have divested entirely from both investments. Can you please provide a source for that contention?
All that said, I think we can all agree Geodes is certainly not to be considered independent.
Happy to stipulate I don't have a crystal ball.
11:33
Brom posted the following:
"In my opinion it would not have mattered what results were achieved at Hickory-1, we would still have had that same posters on here either ex "investors" who lost money and are bitter and twisted, those who are just bitter and twisted and those apparently terrified that 88E may actually gain some traction, its a shame but a fact of life on anonymous boards. I see very little altruism rather self interest."
Brom - you must mean the "self interest" of someone who has published a mere 27k posts on this forum? Is it *that* self interest to which you refer? What about the self interest which saw admissions being made a number of months *after* the event that LTHs had taken advantage of the US OTC social media-inspired spike and traded out of most or all of the position? *That* self interest?
Absolute nonsense that good data from the flow tests would have been greeted with universal negativity, no matter what. Absolute bunkum. When are you going to admit to the forum that there exists a cohort of honest fundamental investors and analysts whom are interested *solely* in the data, the facts, the truth? And if the flow test results were good then that would have had a massively positive readacross to the entire shared asset base?
Jeepers, Brom. Know thyself.
Someone who struggles so much with the truth would stuggle with being blocked and make up some malarkey as to why it happened, when he is not blah, blah, blahring of course :-)
'Initially Geodes was happy enough to correct his *factual* errors when politely pointed out. However, over time he bristled at the *factual* corrections and then blocked me', if that is not correcting him then what is? I will give you this Scot, you can definitely manipulate words to suit any situation. Clearly you corrected him and he took affront and binned you,
17:26
I agree with 88E's most prolific poster, Brom. It can actually be argued logically that the Biden admin's attitude to federal land in Alaska *should* lead to productive state land becoming *more* attractive.
FYI - depending on how you look at it, the SoA relies on the extractive industries for a minimum of 80% of the state's revenue. These North Slope royalties are vital to Alaska's future and could be further bolstered by the proposed gas pipeline deal.
12:33
sharebel has encouraged forum members to read an article written and produced by Vox Markets. He provided a link to same. Buy/sell/hold 88E but please do not rely on that article as a source of information from which to make decisions. Regrettably, the article is littered with ***errors of fact***.
olderwiser had this legitimate criticism of the Vox article.
"The credibility of the VOX comes under serious doubt when they are willing write this:
"These results complement the deeper BFF reservoir's existing 250 mmboe contingent resource. In total, 88E is targeting 647 mmboe of prospective oil resources at the site."
That 647mmboe erroneously includes the Kuparuk (at 56mmbo) which did not even get drilled. The Vox headline volume also erroneously includes 341mmbo from the BFF which has already been assessed (see IER by NSAI) at an 88E share of 28mmbo plus 57mmboe NGLs plus gas 72mmboe => only 157 mmboe. Wowsers - the BFF has already shrunk by nearly half (by Netherland Sewell, Independent Expert), and even more if you rightly take the gas off - which would only sell for $6 per boe into the pipeline if it gets built.
88E already knows the 647mmboe has shrunk by 184mmbo in the BFF and a further 56mmbo in the Kuparuk => all up a material reduction of 240mmboe. Yet incredulously, VOX has the bare faced cheek to print a number they already know is factually incorrect."
As for this sentence: "88E is fully funded to develop Project Phoenix and its other assets." Hoo boy, what a whopper!
88E's cash at hand on 31/3/24 is US$11.22m. The balance of costs for this season’s operations in Alaska is US$11.6m. *If* Burgundy (25% W.I.) elects to walk away from Project Phoenix following the disappointing flow test results, 88E as the operator is obliged to pay the bills in full. 88E has stated the bills will be paid by the end of June ’24.
88E is also committed to pay US$900k to their Namibian partner by 1/6/24. Cost cutting has already commenced (88E’s COO is departing 29/4/24) but unless Burgundy pays some of the outstanding balance for the Hickory-1 flow tests, 88E will run out of cash at some point in June.
88E is definitively not "fully funded to develop Project Phoenix and its other assets." Yikes.
IMO 88E will need asset sales and/or an equity fundraise at a substantial discount to remain solvent after June '24. Let's see if the directors and executives support the company with their own cash whenever the next fundraise occurs? They haven't thus far....even supporting the November fundraise at 0.23p wasn't considered sufficiently attractive for them to invest a single Aussie dollar.
17:26
It should be said that before this recent news large tracts of the NPRA were already unavailable for oil & gas leasing so this is not as massive a change as the article may suggest.
17:12
Last weeks news, 88Es existing leases in the NPRA remain technically drillable, however even if we discovered oil I suspect that costs involved with infrastructure coupled with all the environmental wrangling would make it unattractive now, in the past it was hoped that CP's Harpoon project would bring pipelines and roads closer but that looks less likely.
Currently our leases are in suspension (12M rent free) whilst we discuss with BLM the likely outcomes.
The Biden Administrations actions do not impact State Leases, so Phoenix, Leonis and Icewine West are not affected.
Https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/19/climate/alaska-drilling-ban-biden-climate/index.html
There's some news articles I've been sent over this morning regarding the Biden administration banning oil drilling in certain regions of Alaska.
Not sure if this has something to do with today's drop.
I've been invested here 7 years now.
16:13
Yeah, I'm pretty sure. Pretty, pretty, pretty sure. It was at that precise moment that Geodes stopped commenting on valuations, sticking solely to his views on the geology.
You clearly didn't read my post correctly, taximan57. Why would I "correct" an expert in geology? I stated categorically that I didn't do that even once. Repeat, not once. My suggested corrections to his posts were limited *entirely* to *facts* about the investment cases.
I've suggested repeatedly you ignore my username, olderwiser's username when reading our content. Remove your misdirected anger and read the content as if it came from a new user called "Curtain1". Quit the eternal abuse and do more research.
Is there a capital raise coming over at panr Munnie love?
Blah, blah and blah, so many words and so little said, just wanted to summarise for those in a rush :-)
05:23
taximan57 - I note you have kindly copied over a paragraph written by Geodes.
"Personally, I congratulate 88 Energy Ltd. They have made a significant discovery in the North Slope of Alaska and did so on a "shoe string Budget" and had to dilute the shareholders to do so. Now they have something to build on and attract financing or a buyer. Bottom line, they have discovered a Giant Field by the Globally accepted definition'."
Yes, PANR and 88E have indeed discovered a massive hydrocarbon accumulation in the Alaska North Slope, immediately adjacent to existing infrastructure (TAPS and Dalton Highway). The trouble is that the characteristics of these shared stacked reservoirs *vary considerably* depending on the location. Most especially, the depth of burial, the effects of Dmax calculations, lead to a pronounced effect on the producibility of the southern and southeastern parts of the acreage. Of course the measure of *producibility* has a huge bearing on the *commerciality* of the varied locations.
To all forum members. Please understand that 88E hasn't necessarily done anything wrong. They haven't drilled Hickory-1 badly. I have no reason to believe the flow tests weren't carried out professionally. Nope, all this data was decided millions of years ago. The data was collected and brought to the surface only a few days ago. When these formations were formed, the reservoirs had no idea lines would be drawn on a map in the 20th and 21st centuries which would have such decisive implications for a bunch of stockmarket investors and traders!
Could/should 88E have invested in 3D seismic earlier in the life of the project? Might 3D seismic have led them to make different decisions about where to apply 88E's capital? Maybe yes, maybe no. I urge forum members to listen to PANR's CEO in a recent Proactive interview, see link below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dts7k5oMR8k&t=144s
Have a listen between 2mins and 3mins 30seconds. For many years now, PANR has modelled the reservoirs' characteristics improving the further north and northwest the location. These stacked reservoirs in the northern and northwestern areas are also *shallower* than in the southern and southeastern areas. Imagine a stack of 5 dinner plates being tilted...the lower part of the stacked plates is 88E's acreage, the higher part of the stacked plates is PANR's acreage.
PANR clearly feared the negative effects of Dmax on the producibility of the reservoirs in the southern areas. So much so that PANR *has not included* in their own guidance of recoverable barrels the hydrocarbons assessed to be present from their Talitha #A location southwards to the boundary with 88E.
This strongly suggests to me that PANR's technical team will not have been overly surprised by the data collected during the two flow tests at Hickory-1. Is it making more sense now?
Neversatisfied @15:08 “could even end the day blue”
😂😂😂 we’ll never be satisfied listening to your investment advice.
I no longer understand this share (face palm )
Hillbilly in order to make a profit to sell at 41 when it rose to over 44 less than a few weeks ago you would have had to have the faith to buy in lower pre results. Well that’s what we are all doing now buying and topping up except we have now had release of excellent results on 2 x discoveries and more to come than when you say you bought. Your view makes therefore zero sense! All you have demonstrated is the potential bags from this low level for new entrants and holders lowering their averages before the ship sails North again! IMHO DYOR
What fantastic news exactly sharebel, must have missed that one, i used to top top up my old vauxhall viva with more oil every month than this company is getting out of the ground
Scot, are you sure Geodes blocked you because he was fed up of you pointing out his errors, or is it more likely that he got fed up with your sanctimonious I cant do anything wrong holier than thou attitude? Similar to the majority on board here?
Seriously you are telling us you correct on many an occasion an expert in the field and he blocked you for that reason?
Blah, blah and blah, so many words and so little said, no change there :-)
00:59
Hi Rpj8438 - I note your link to Geodes' reddit thread. I thought a bit of background would be useful.
Geodes has more knowledge about geology in his little finger than I could hope to learn in a lifetime. However, he self-admittedly no longer strays into commentary on valuations, including comparative valuations of PANR and 88E. He and I used to communicate. I enjoyed reading his geological commentary very much indeed. Sadly he made *many factual errors* about the investment cases of PANR and 88E.
Initially Geodes was happy enough to correct his *factual* errors when politely pointed out. However, over time he bristled at the *factual* corrections and then blocked me. I *never* questioned his geological commentary, solely his errors about the investment cases. Thereafter he ceased to comment on the financial implications for each company and limited his commentary to geological matters.
*My* opinion. Geodes has stated he is hugely under water on 88E. It happens. IMHO his commentary is, understandably, tainted by his desire to dig himself out of his 88E financial hole. Why not ask Geodes the following question: "Knowing what he knows now about the datasets from each company, which of 88E and PANR would he invest in today if only allowed one stock?’ Also, ask him for a data-supported justification for a downdip, lower classification 88E Phoenix recoverable barrel in the ground to be valued at a premium to an updip, higher classification PANR recoverable barrel in the ground?
in his latest reddit post I *think* I understand the point he is trying to make. In summary, publication of incomplete data leads to incomplete conclusions. Broadly, I acknowledge the point. *However* and specifically in the case of these two flow tests at Hickory-1, there are pertinent and fully applicable comparisons to 88E's data. I am referring to PANR's published data collected at Alkaid-1, Alkaid-2, Talitha #A and Theta West-1.
Put aside for a moment the actual results, look at the greater degree of data shared by PANR and compare it to the meagre data presented by 88E, thus far anyway. So, yes, Geodes urges folk to wait for further data and/or explanations on the "4 stk barrels in the tank" conundrum. But he, himself, was *not* able to come up with any irrefutable explanation for that precise piece of data.
Occam's razor requires that the simplest of competing theories be preferred to the more complex; or that explanations of unknown phenomena be sought first in terms of known quantities. It's not contentious, IMO, to suggest 88E's history shows a propensity to be promotional wherever possible. If there was positive data to be shared with the market, 88E would have done so. There were no corrections in the next three RNSs. Think about it.
Occam's razor is the problem-solving principle that recommends searching for explanations constructed with the smallest possible set of elements.
MM playing bait and switch all day - we opened at 22 with 23 paid and all we’ve had is manipulation moves all day! All noted and logged. So absolutely no reason for the ridiculous drop! Shorts margin call no doubt after our fantastic news and MM lowering the rope along with a targeted boiler room crew for an Oz fund who went on the attack on their behalf. Play the players trying to play us for mugs and buy and hold! IMHO DYOR
I DID and got before more pathetic news. .29 and 0.41 out.. Glad i made a bit out of this Alaskan dog.