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Just keep in mind that the closing time in London is not the end of Tesla trading. The opening price the next day reflects the closing and after hours price in the us. So Tesla was down approx 15% at London close so 3sts was up about 45% at close. But tsla recovered almost all of that so 3sts opened down to reflect that recovery. If you want to understand the movements then watch the after Hours and pre market trading. Then you will see the correlation.
Thanks for that
I have seen my holding apparently going up - sometimes close to the 3x suggested but not always
I’m wondering if people are getting different results from different brokers. Am using ajbell and interactive investor not offering it. Does seem to be a good way to short Tesla but maybe liquidity a problem?
@knownothin - it's now intraday trading - i.e. people buying and selling 3STS depending on whether they think tesla will go up of down once it closes. Sometimes you'll see disproportional movements to the Tesla price but largely it follows a similar trend
I'm in complete agreement, I'm trying to remain unemotional about it but frankly a trade like this comes up only so often - if we are on the right side of it then we will do very well. The cheaper rate would bring too much exposure and I have enough of a buffer to play the game now.
Tesla has shown a nice V-shaped recovery which is normally the sign of quite and unstable stock - perhaps I'm wrong but it looks to me that people are once again buying the "bargain" Tesla price, with it still to fall a lot more
Strange the price falls when Tesla down Can anyone explain?
My thoughts exactly, I definitely want to see a slow compounding that will enrich us more over time than an instant cliff plunge with a one off huge gain. I can't bring myself to sell my holdings now as it would be a risk and buying back in at a cheaper rate would be chancing it. The train is on the move and I don't want to miss the ride once the momentum speeds up another gear.
It amazes me people are selling 3STS, the pre market over the last month tends to be better than the performance of the day - i.e. if its -2% premarket the EOD will be lower than -2%.
Think the way Monday is shaping up we are going to have another week of downward trend for Tesla.
I'd actually prefer if it went down slower as the compounding is more effective than when it's as volatile as it is now
Your prediction is happening just as you said. We are definitely winning. It's a matter of time I guess.
Unpopular is what I like haha
The thing is, it’s nothing against Tesla, if it fell enough I’d happily buy their stock but it’s just so overpriced but they refuse to see it. All these Tesla YouTube channels and forums specific for Tesla genuinely brainwash them... the price is built on speculation on top of speculation
Think Monday could be a bumpy ride for us, think due to the Tesla recovery on Friday the morning will be dodgy but the share is going to slide again and we should be in the good again
hahaha i know the feeling! I have definitely more than doubled as i had so much money on this. I will let it ride and see where we end up but word on the streets is that we are becoming very unpopular in the circles of the Tesla cult. ;) I love it! Long may it continue!
Haha I was on Reddit and I get so many downvotes it’s amazing. Makes me double down on this because the Tesla cult is just so deluded - monday should be fun, the compounding now for me is getting big!
This is the most fun I’ve had in the stock market for years haha
Same here, i couldn't bring myself to sell and probably won't now as we have the afterburners on. We are eating! Did you see the bitter messages on the Tesla chat? hahaha Let's eat my friends.
Yep,, worked out it was due to the compounding - the rise was slower than the fall basically which means the price at $600 either side of the peak does not equate to the same value of 3STS
On the topic of compounding, I’ve not sold 3STS for 3 days straight and now I’ll 101% up in 3 days. We are eating.
I see. Thanks for the example. I had a feeling it was set this way but i had my doubts because of price differences reflected by fees. Cheers.
I will just use an extreme example. A 99% drop in one day would be about 300 percent profit so 30k profit from 10k starting. 99 days of 1% drops so 3% compounding 99 times gives about 140k profit off the same 10k start. I used an online interest calculator and of course there are fees to take into account and actually the resulting share price for Tesla would be higher after the 1 percent drops but it is clear there the size of the drops has an impact.
I see what you mean. Earlier I was asking which outcome would be more profitable in terms of compounding gains, a slow steady decline in Tesla share price or a big price drop in a short space of time. It seems this is taken into account as a variable and can have an impact on price. Is that correct? I will try and query with the granite guys as ETFs really are complex when they leveraged in this way
It's not quite so simple as there have been charged taken out of the pot over the period since Tesla was last at 600 (or any reference point) and as this is a daily performance etf then the trajectory to the reference point also matters. A case of compound interest with multiple smaller drops potentially being preferred to one big drop.
Yes the intraday performance percentage resets every 12 hours. It basically starts at 0% on each trading day and does not carry yesterday's performance over to the next day. Although the value does depreciate or appreciates depending on the value of Tesla, the percentage is alway at zero at the start of each day. In terms of value reset, I'm not totally sure about how granite calculate some of the figures they take into account but I can alway contact them and ask as they are very quick to answer the phone or respond to my emails. I contact them frequently about their other Etfs. Tesla is falling hard. We are eating! But it's nothing because in the back of my mind I'm still thinking about that 5m purchase of half a billion shares.
100% - retail investors have been “buying the dip” basically putting off this market crash for some time. For me, I’ve put money into things like Walmart, shorts or taken it out altogether. The signs of a crash or bear market are there and Tesla is primed to fall the hardest.
QQ though, last time Tesla was the price it is now ($600) 3STS was 2.6p - although we will open well today we are likely to be well off that. Do Granite ever “reset” the prices of the shares?
The institutional selloff happened silently. Even cathy woods admitted that her current holdings are just there for the purpose of internationally making a loss so she can claim against her massive profits from the last huge profit gain she made. The retail investors are barely financially literate enough to understand the mafia of wall street. Elon and Cathy have secret meetings.
That’s awesome, thanks Chuma
Would love deeper detail but I imagine the institutions are driving the sell off today, can’t imagine many will stick around as many bought in early. Take your gains in a crash etc
It's always hard to get quality data in reference to accurate holdings because data is distorted and market movements initiate holding changes. The last update I had was as follows:
Institutions: 403.86 Million shares
Strategic entities : 188.44 million shares
Others: 354.66 million shares
The value of institutional holdings is roughly around 172.41 billion dollars. The top 5 institutional holders are capital world investment, The vanguard group, Baillie Gifford, BlackRock, jennison associates. 42.61% is owned by institutional investors. Ownership is generally broken down into categories of owner type. You have investment managers at 11.92%, fund portfolios 27.92%, brokerage firms 2.76% and strategic entities such as individuals and Elon musk and other insiders at 19.99%. strategic entities have 189.44 million shares at roughly 16.5billion dollars.
Cathie moves money around, but when people sell her ETF they sell Tesla.
I see the main things propping up Tesla being retail investors and ETFs - there are 260+ ETFs with Tesla in.
Does anyone know what proportion of these would sell out the tesla position and at what points? I.e. ARK won't sell automatically because Cathie Woods is long tesla, but some ETFs like VUG would sell proportions of their positions as the price declines.
Retail investors will be the bag holders for sure, but the decline will be initiated by reduction of positions by investment houses and ETFs.