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All companies are insanely overvalued jep.
Well Jed, previous narrative for overvalued was Tesla not making profits and now narrative for overvaluation is something else. With the previous narrative, shorts lost big and they will lose again.
Bury opened 320m short in March and price was 700-750. It came down to 700s in Feb so I assume that his short is in that region.
4 months on, price is near 700 :-)
So he didn't make any money since 4 months :-)
I think Bury will help move SP to $1000!
Trader
The shorts are worried, they saw the Q2 results they know two new Giga factories are about to come online and that the battery shortage that has plagued the company has been solved and whilst we wait for the share price to go up in recognition of this they quiver in dread at the losses they are about to incur. Expect more insidious nasty FUD its all they have.
Rightly said DB. Their energy business is another mamoth one so comparing Tesla with BMW or Ford or other chinense companies is silly.
Also I can wait and see till next year how it all pans out.
Moreover, Micahel Bury opened his big short in March but not much damaged has been done. There will not be.
For over an year, the cry about overvaluation has been going on but the price has only gone up and many shorts have been burnt.
As long as Elon is doing the right thing and continue his good work, people will invest into Tesla. They are not making loss either. Giga factories coming online by next year. In my small town away from London, I see Teslas every day.
Even pension funds across the world are piling into Tesla just like how they buy Amazon and Google. With each fund having only fixed allocation of funds into certain companies. So along with Amazon, Google and Microsoft, big funds buy Tesla first than Netflix or Facebook as these don't offer the growth that Tesla offers.
Unless fundamentally something goes wrong, I see the price at around $700 and as soon as the other businesses come online, price will go much much higher.
You sir may need to learn from reality and I have a feeling it's only a matter of time before you realise what everyone here is saying. Tesla has potential but most of the real achievements are not anywhere near materialisation. This one man band can only go on for so long which is why we say enjoy the ride whilst its here because it my not be here this time next year.
Trader
What about Teslas energy business Elon said in the recent Court case that they have a billion dollars worth of orders for Powerwalls and Megapacks are selling really well too. Then there is autobidder and localised power grids. Elon has stated that he believes that over time the power business will be a least as big as Autos if not larger.
Tesla is not just making a car but it has other businesses too and market thinks that these other businesses have massive potential too. For example,
- they can get into insurance as they are collecting all the data on the vehicle.
- they have over the air software upgrades that requires a software subscription service, which ICE manufactures do not have?
- they are expanding battery charging stations , which they are planning to lend to other manufacturers for a fee.
Moreover, Tesla cars are like Apple Iphones. There are so many phone manufacturers but worlds wants Iphone and same is with Tesla. People feel luxurious buying Tesla than a small BMW Electric car :-) Tesla is also going to produce $25K electric car!
To me, Elon might even merge SpaceX at some point instead of making Spacex as a separate listed company.
It is less hassle for Elon to have both under one company.
Ofcourse some of the above things yet to be materialised but market is considering the potential for the above businesses and even if one of them gets into full operation then Telsa price can easily go to $1000 and above.
Yes but all of the incumbents are not going to disappear. Market cap of BMW is 1/10th of Tesla. Is Tesla really going to be 10 times more profitable than BMW? When?
This does not take into account any discount that should be applied to future earnings.
I get that Tesla are currently selling a lot of units (EV market share) at a good margin. Just not convinced that the growth and margins will be anywhere close to what current valuation suggests.
It would be completely unprecedented.
Well I guess the point is it’s not a established company.
It’s a growth company that’s had its perfect market condition land on its lap.
It’s got decent vertical integration as well so been less affected by the semi conductor shortage whereas companies like Ford have had massive issues.
All the other companies are trying to service ICE markets while growing into EV. Tesla just have the one focus.
And a normal PE for a large established car company is less than 10.
Is Tesla really going to beat BMW earnings by 10x to justify a 10x higher market cap (this assumes the SP plateaus until these earnings are reached)?
Elon called it too high at $150!
Needs to grow into the valuation for sure.
If 2021 EPS ends up $3 dollars that brings the P/E ratio down to 217.
The problem is how many people have to buy before the valuation can be justified. At the end of the day it is a car company that has to build and sell physical cars. The reality is that outside North America they have very strong competition from established manufacturers and a growing number of Chinese entrants.
I’m not sure if today is the start of a decline, but fairly certain the SP will be lower over the next few years. Even Elon thinks the SP is too high!
Is there a depression coming (well there must be eventually) any time soon and even if there is Tech companies tend to do really well in depressions.
Teslas are not expensive when compared with ICE counterparts I am talking here of similar performance and total cost of ownership.
Of course there is a carbon footprint to build pretty much anything but if you really look at ICE vehicle emissions just from the tailpipe and bear in mind that burning fossil fuels in an ICE engine is a small part of the carbon footprint (oil rigs oil tankers oil refineries etc etc).
So who will be able to afford a Tesla? It appears to be lots of people, demand certainly is not a problem they sell every car they make and have waiting lists and hardly any inventory just a few days - all with no paid advertising whatsoever. Then there is the next car the small Model 2 cannot be far away I think it most probably is not here already is because Model Y and Model 3 are selling so well.
You make a good point that Elon is very important to the company however I believe that no one is indispensable sure it might have a transitory effect but that is all; Apple had pain when Steve Jobbs died for quite some time but last time I looked they were still going strong.
Who is going to buy an overpriced Tesla during an economic depression? By the time these factories run and make use of economies of scale at full capacity, there will be no one financially secure enough to consciously consider buying a Tesla. These cars aren't for the average wage donkey, they are for those with money, savings, security and expert field employment and good pensions. These cars aren't as green to produce or recycle as they seem and are actually putting a large carbon footprint out just to produce in mass numbers. Tesla isn't the company to have high hopes in as it is a one man band. Without Elon it would just get eaten by the lions of the motoring industry. P.s also tell Elon not to get too ambitious or brave by getting on one of his own space X rockets like Bezos and Branson did with their own because if that over-engineered rocket blows, your money is gone with it.
You obviously weren't listening when they started building the new factories in Berlin and Austin both of which are nearing completion and start of production and will in the fullness of of time (six months of so) be capable of knocking out two million vehicles a year - EACH.
Good luck seeing 50% after Q2 is finished. From here on now it's a downward trend downhill for many many years to come. It will be a slow cooker for Tesla and its shareholders will be tested beyond loyalty. Cathie woods is delusional and lucky thanks to covid. If it wasn't for stimulus and covid, she would be eating beans from a tin on Christmas. Elons days at the helm are numbered. Everyone falls sometime........
A rampant Tesla bull extrapolates the past compound annual growth rate (56% per annun) into what the future could hold.
Now I know predicting future performance from past performance is fraught with problems and difficulties.
If any company can can grow at a CAGR of 50%+ per year for a prolonged number of years then that company is Tesla.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzvHTLkhQoY