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11 Jul '10
Not sure why an SPX board hasnt already been setup but anyway here's an interesting stat below regarding the death cross -

"The last time that the SPX saw the "death cross" (2007), the market rallied seven consecutive days and then fell apart. However, taking a long position (not short) in the SPX at the time of each cross would have resulted in a profitable trade 73% of the time assuming that the position is held until the 50 SMA moves back above the 200 SMA. However, the other 27% of the time would have sustained large losses of 30% or more!"


11 Jul '10
Tie i have done some analysis on this with esignal here goes,think i got them all listed going back to 1990.
price at deathcross date prices after deathcross
-------------------- ------- --------------------------
326 1990 295 bottom followed by massive rally
440 april 94 to 476 high deathcross marked bottom
440 nov 94 1190 deathcross marked bottom
1068 oct 98 925 low followed by rally to 1500
1440 oct/nov 00 crash to 800
1110 aug04 1328 death cross marked bottom
1264 jul 06 1264 death cross marked bottom
1468 dec07 crash to 666
1016 jul10 bottom marked so far...

On the 2 crash occasions...

Prices were at 200 and 50mas at time of crossovers.Prices got above 50 but never got above 200ma for more than 2 days.

current price action price extended from 200/50mas at time of crossover.Is now pulling up to both moving averages,which is normal.
If price gets above 50ma it will be interesting to see what happens at the 200day ma.

11 Jul '10
Above not as clear as intended but hope it makes sense.
On occasions deathcross marked bottom the price was extended from both moving averages ,and on crash occasions the price was at both moving averages at time of deathcross.
Also ,when i say crash is not to mean plummet straight away .. the price pulled away from both moving averages and pulled back up to them again before the crashes occured some months later.

11 Jul '10
plays - it makes perfect sense and a good addition to my earlier quote. thanks.

11 Jul '10
TIE its clearer to say that when the crashes occured the price was rejected after it pulled back up to the 50/200mas leading to bearmarket.
If the prices get above the 50/200 mas on a weekly close history tells us there will be a strong bull market.
Interesting week ahead because the spx is pulling back up to them and the shorters will be out in force.

14 Jul '10
The S&P closed above its 200 ema yesterday I believe.

So, if you are correct then a bull market is very likely IF IF IF the S&P can hold above the 200ema today.

Have I understood you correctly?

14 Jul '10
Hi ace its the all important market open ma that is much more relevant.
There's the chart has doji'd at 50ma at downchannel resistance on a downleg.
No where near the 200ma although the dow has found restance there last 2 sessions. Not out of the woods yet...
Here's the dow too

14 Nov '10
Well my previous quote back in early july regarding the snp death cross eventually turning bullish and longs working 73% of the time worked a treat! now time for another interesting quote, the markets are toppy and the default rumours have suddenly come back (market manipulation at its best) so for me i think this yr the trend may breakdown but it will be interesting to see if history repeats itself.. -

"long snp on 12th nov until 5th dec has a 100% success rate for the past 15 years"


2 Dec '10
"long snp on 12th nov until 5th dec has a 100% success rate for the past 15 years"

ahhh worked like a charm ;)

Even with all this default BS being hyped up by the media on a daily basis and yet we still go up, thats 400 handles in just 2 days... ignore the news folks its just "noise!" and ive proven that many times...


11 Apr '11
SnP has key resistance in the 1338/1345 region.. It is currently forming a bull flag on the daily, a break above that region invites 1360 and then possibly 1400... It is looking overbought on the daily and we have had a lovely run up in recent weeks so a dip back down to 1300ish would present another buying opportunity... otherwise look for a confirmed break above 1345 as a clear buy signal. GL!

22 Dec '14
was in for the recent Elliott wave 5 (1980 to 1963) could have stayed in till 2080, charts looked like it will go to 2102 on this 5th wave..

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