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TSX Lithium explorer International Lithium Corp prepares to drill at Raleigh Lake
Exclusive: Hardman & Co Investor Forum - Severn Trent, Calculus Capital, Volta Finance, Residential



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Madpunter
23 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Valuation
18kMMbbls oil and 202TCF (at the same recoverable rates as the figures in the CPR = 2.9kMMbbls and 140TCF) . If this is converted to oil equivalent (1TCF = 170MMbbls oil) = 2.9 + 26.7 = 29.6kMMbbls. With an oil price of $75/bbl = $2002.5bn.
Typical takeover amounts for O + G companies are 1 - 3%. As the numbers are so huge, it would have to be a consortium (we have two majors interested remember) and the 1% would likely be the top limit. Therefore, with 1% = $20bn, which equates to a share price of 98p. If a JV/farmout, then I would look at 0.1% = $2bn, which equates to 9.8p. If FRR were to go into field production alone borrowing the money, then £500m market cap. is achievable + $440m recoverable expenditure is roughly $1bn. Hence, why IMHO $2bn is the figure for a JV/farmout.
IMHO a figure somewhere in the middle of the range is most likely for a buyout of Block 12. Therefore, halfway between $2bn and $20bn is $11bn, which equates to a share price of 53.5p ($11bn = £8.44bn @ current rate of $1 = £0.7675).
Remember, I have used a very conservative value of just over 0.5% of the value of the recoverable hydrocarbons. When takeovers are considered, factors that give higher valuations are low costs per barrel; infrastructure in place; market in place; proven resources and fields already in production. BP recently bought 4.6kMMbbls for $10.5bn and FRR has almost 6.5 times as much. The costs for the BP acquisition are well under $50/bbl, whereas for FRR it is under $12/bbl. There are pipelines running through Block 12, with the nearest to Tarabani only 18km away. There's a ready market in place connected to the pipelines. Production apart from the very low zone 9, is only just starting for FRR. Tthe resources are being proven by the current EWT's, plus the seismics and the proven geology of the Kura Basin and Maykop formation. Therefore, IMHO taking everything into consideration, half a percent of the recoverable value is very conservative and not utter tosh.
I am assuming the resource of 4.6kMMbbls of oil BP bought is the amount recoverable, as I haven't found a breakdown for the resource.
FRR has 6.5 times as much recoverable hydrocarbons and 4 times as much profit per barrel, which equates to 26 times as much profit. BP's acquisition is already flowing at 190kbbls/d and is a proven resource. IMHO $11bn for 26 times as much profit, than a resource for $10.5bn with the field already developed, is a good deal.

 

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Madpunter
23 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Well testing
Perhaps after an EWT on T39 to get the descriptive test results, FRR are now doing productivity testing at much higher rates by reducing the choke and opening the size of the bore. The descriptive testing will enable FRR and the two super majors to calculate reservoir size, decline curve, flow rates and permeability, both horizontal and vertical. Whereas the productivity testing requires transient pressure changes, through varying choke sizes and stopping and starting the flow, to check if there's an homogeneous formation or low permeability zones.

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b4d2/d236dcd461181b957acc499f9cb4722740e6.pdf

Assuming that FRR has been increasing the flow rate from T39 by altering the choke (at full bore 8 x 529bopd = 4232bopd, except the equation is not linear due to other factors), then after the 1st October auction, we would expect another within a month. Zaza did state 4 - 6 weeks to fill a trainload and there's an auction on the 22nd October. This time the quantity has increased to 9,000t = 69,390bbls. I wonder why two majors are interested and Zaza is so confident about paying the bills?

Madpunter
23 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Reduced CAPEX
IMHO the CAPEX can be reduced because of the flow rates for T39. If FRR's plan was to flow T39 at a rate where the well could naturally recharge without any decline. Then after a few years when the pressures were similar to zones 9, 14 and 15, they comingle all the zones. The super major could flow zone 19 at a much higher rate, reducing the overall number of years production from the well, but allowing the pressures to be equalized much earlier. Remember zone 19 was 529bbls/d for a choke of 8/64", which implies over 4,000bbls/d. If the data for example suggests that after the natural decline the flow would stabilize at 1000bbls/d and it takes 12 months to drop to this level, so FRR flow it at 1000bbls/d and there's no decline (the choke would altered). The super major could flow it at 4000bbls/d and lets say it drops to the 1000bbls/d after just 4 months. Using the figures of $3.5m per well and $75/bbl, then the payback would drop from 47 days to 12 days and for 35 the next days, there's 4 times as much profit. If the FDP was 100 wells costing $350m and producing 100,000bbls/d for the first two years, then with the super major's FDP could achieve this with 50 wells for a cost of $175m.
100 wells x 1000bbls/d x 360d = 36,000,000bbls
50 wells x 1000bbls/d x 360d = 18,000,000bbls + 4 months at an extra 3000bbls/d = (3000bbls/d x4 x30d x 50 wells = 18,000,000) = 36,000,000.These figures are just for illustration, but show how for lower CAPEX, extra profit could be achieved, due to the increased flow in the early life of the well. Also, there's the extra profit from comingling earlier.

Madpunter
23 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Oil Auctions
After consultation with Mole, I have estimated the production for FRR in 2017 at 110bopd (it was double that in the link below).Using the 110bopd gives 5.2kt for 2017, which when added to the 2 trainloads of 7kt = 19.2kt, which is more than was produced in Georgia for that year (see statistika link). Therefore, the auctioned oil probably includes oil from FRR, with the increased volume from the productivity testingof T39.
https://fronteraresources.com/frontera-announces-operations-update-entry-seda-backed-loan-agreement-support-ongoing-work-programs/
The link for the conversion of barrels to tonnes is below :-
https://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/ConversionTables/Images/CCSS1015_Energy_Industry_Conversions_LRG.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1070.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1185.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1226.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1260.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1370.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1379.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1382.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/en/statistika

Madpunter
23 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
bugsy-b's post about the gas composition :-
Interesting to note that the natural gas samples taken from the UD2 well last November, have the exact same 8818 kcal/m3 calorific value as the Azerbaijani shah deniz gas analysed by GGTC recently.. Is this further proof of "One big gas field" I wonder.... "Lower Calorific value - 8818 kcal/m3 (State standard: not less than 7600 kcal/m3)

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=FRR&ArticleCode=wtrt7kq7&ArticleHeadline=Update_on_Ud2_well

http://213.131.57.78/flows/gasanalisis.aspx

Madpunter
23 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Moleinahole's post about the Kura Basin formation :-
http://georgiaoilandgas.ge/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GOG-Exploration-Program-2018-2022.pdf

That tells you most what you want to know about the formation of the Kura and is basically an endorsement of Steve N comments from 2015/16 about the size of the field and its relationship to The Azeri and North Caucasas fields.

I think when you read that its easy to see why majors would be interested.

Madpunter
23 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
theprodigy's post on some of the history of FRR :-
For any newbies who dont know the recent history here are some links worth watching
insight to the foresight and reason Steve Nicandros is very highly respected and considered an industry expert. Watch these 3 links and then think to what we are currently seeing play out and im sure you will have a far greater understanding of the obstacles we have faced and appreciation of where Steve Nicandros has positioned and taken us. Zaza has been part of this process and will be the man standing atop the podium when frontera receive their medal. For me the medal should jointly be hanging around SNs neck.

Worth the full hour watch to get full understanding but SN talks around the 21 minute mark for about 8 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVTtQ2DMBQw

Again worth the full hour but Sn is on around the 50 minutes mark for about ten minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxyTtfa3tho&feature=youtu.be

Then take the comments from congress directing the President to ensure the protection of US assets in Georgia
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4563?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22H.R.4563%22%5D%7D&r=1

So to summarise my thoughts- SN has worked tirelessly on the ground and behind the scenes to position frontera in the best tactical, operational and political positions to capitalise on our assets and investments.

All in my opinion. Not intended as investment advice but just a bit of recent history for anyone who doesnt know.

ATB

Madpunter
23 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Posted by regdik :-
Something I posted but based on fact
According to the world league of oil producing nations Georgia is 91st with 400bpd during 2016 census returns (146000bpy).
Next door Azerbaijan (23rd) who shares the same oil basin produced 833538bpd during the same period (304,241,370bpy).
The difference is that one had a number of majors invest billions of dollars the other a few wildcat prospectors struggling with the geology. Until NOW.
Forget the few train loads and the increasing auctions the potential with significant investment is there under their feet. FRR using modern drilling methods and a lot of time proving the basin is rich in oil bearing layers that stretch from Azerbaijan through Georgia, under the black sea, into Ukraine and Moldova. These have now been modelled and being scrutinised by two majors.
We have seen the mood change towards energy in Georgia from “we have nothing” to now a quite confidence and a number of companies buying licences throughout the country. Majors sending in delegations and US inviting Georgia to sit at the table and talk of joint trading benefits (a country no bigger in population that the East Midlands).
FRR may be cash strapped but they are sitting on probably the richest field re-discovered in years. I suspect GG want a major to take a larger role to accelerate access to these riches. Hence the arbitration request and I see this more of a prompt to get a move on than a real threat.
FRR being cash strapped others may see that this is an opportunity to squeeze and try and manipulate a greater share if not all of the prize.
FRR have a track record of using the courts, AC, US political friends to their advantage (and now ours). I hope they can twist and weave to keep the vultures at bay until a deal lands. Then the YA/Outrider debt will be peanuts. A risk yes but we are playing for very big stakes here not just us but for a whole region – just look what O&G has done for Azerbaijan.

Madpunter
23 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Posted by Chris572 :-
An agreement on the study of geological and geophysical materials was signed between the State Oil and Gas Agency and the company Exonmobile.

According to the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development, the company will evaluate the potential of hydrocarbons in West Georgia. The Parties agreed that, after completing the geological and geophysical data transmitted by the Agency, the "exonmile" report and the integrated database will be prepared by the state.

According to company representative Jonathan Wilson, they are happy with cooperation with the Georgian side and will be able to use the experience to study Georgian hydrocarbon potential.

"On behalf of ExxonMobil I would like to tell you that we are pleased to be here and that we have signed a cooperation agreement. More than a decade, we work in the Black Sea and in the nearby regions and we are ready to use our knowledge and experience to assess Georgia's potential. We hope to be closely cooperating with relevant state agencies. It is also very pleasant that the signing of the agreement was signed in this beautiful city in Tbilisi, "said Jonathan Wilson.

According to Giorgi Tatishvili, Head of State Oil and Gas Agency, it is very important to cooperate with one of the largest companies in the world.

"On the basis of this agreement," Exonmobil "will prepare and report to the Agency on the potential of hydrocarbons in West Georgia. This report will be used to plan further work, which will ultimately lead to new discovery of oil and gas accumulation, "Tatishvili said.

According to him, "Exmnomi" will also be trained by the staff of the Agency in the use of the database and the stratigraphic analysis.

http://businesstime.ge/index.php?page=content&id=3497&MenuItemID=14

Madpunter
24 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Steve C. Nicandros Shareholding
Trade Date Action Notifier Price Currency Amount Holding
25-Aug-17 Placing Steve C Nicandros 0.1 GBX 40,207,168 1710901096
27-Jul-15 Buy Steve C Nicandros 0.8 GBX 11,079,417 200564530
12-Nov-12 Buy Steve C Nicandros 0.5 GBX 6,252,857 189485113
12-Nov-12 Buy Steve C Nicandros 0.49 GBX 2,250,000 189485113
09-Nov-12 Buy Steve C Nicandros 0.49 GBX 4,250,000 189485113
14-Feb-12 Buy Steve C Nicandros 1.07 GBX 1,230,000 159493473
29-Nov-11 Buy Steve C Nicandros 1.11 GBX 235,000 158263473
29-Nov-11 Buy Steve C Nicandros 1.01 GBX 915,000 158263473
04-Nov-11 Buy Steve C Nicandros 1.4 GBX 446,000 0
02-Oct-09 Transfer Steve C Nicandros 0 1,068,750 0
18-Sep-09 Placing Steve C Nicandros 10.3 GBX 3,565,675 0
19-Dec-08 Buy Steve Nicandros 25 GBX 100,000 0
03-Sep-08 Buy Steve Nicandros 66 GBX 15,000 0
02-Sep-08 Buy Steve Nicandros 68 GBX 10,000 0
11-Jul-08 Buy Steve Nicandros 94.5 GBX 60,000 0
09-Jul-08 Buy Steve Nicandros 93 GBX 40,000 0
23-Oct-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 1.98 CAD 10,000 0
15-Oct-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 78 GBX 10,000 0
28-Sep-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 75 GBX 25,000 0
28-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 82 GBX 25,000 0
20-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 83 GBX 25,000 0
18-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 81 GBX 40,000 0
15-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 78.5 GBX 10,000 0
12-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 78.9 GBX 50,000 0
06-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 81 GBX 25,000 0
05-Jun-07 Buy Steve Nicandros 81 GBX 25,000 0
06-Oct-06 Buy Steve Nicandros 60 GBX 25,000 0
25-Sep-06 Buy Steve Nicandros 77 GBX 50,000 0
21-Sep-06 Buy Steve Nicandros 50 GBX 100,000 0
03-May-06 Buy Steve Nicandros 124 GBX 50,000 0
10-Jan-06 options Steve Nicandros 0.03 USD 1,859,585 0
10-Jan-06 options Steve Nicandros 1 USD 50,000 0

Madpunter
24 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Zaza Mamulaishvilli Shareholding
Trade Date Action Notifier Price Currency Amount Holding
04-Oct-17 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.58 GBX 172,413,792 1014259226
25-Aug-17 Placing Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.1 GBX 216,203,088 1014259226
27-Jul-15 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.8 GBX 11,079,417 82532443
18-Jun-15 Holdings Zaza Mamulaishvili 0 0 71453026

Madpunter
24 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
The director deals didn't have the May purchases, so I've updated the post.
Trade Date Action Notifier Price Currency Amount Holding
08-May-18 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvilli 0.48 GBX 10,000,000 1,040,259,226
08-May-18 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvilli 0.49 GBX 16,000,000 1,040,259,226
04-Oct-17 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.58 GBX 172,413,792 1014259226
25-Aug-17 Placing Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.1 GBX 216,203,088 1014259226
27-Jul-15 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.8 GBX 11,079,417 82532443
18-Jun-15 Notification of Holding Zaza Mamulaishvili 0 0 71453026

Madpunter
24 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Thebuy figure for 04-Oct-17 was 1 share short and the holding figure for 25-Aug-17 was wrong, so I've updated the post. I wonder how many more incorrect figures are in the Director's deals?
Trade Date Action Notifier Price Currency Amount Holding
08-May-18 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvilli 0.48 GBX 10,000,000 1,040,259,226
08-May-18 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvilli 0.49 GBX 16,000,000 1,040,259,226
04-Oct-17 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.58 GBX 172,413,793 1014259226
25-Aug-17 Placing Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.1 GBX 216,203,088 841,845,433
27-Jul-15 Buy Zaza Mamulaishvili 0.8 GBX 11,079,417 82532443
18-Jun-15 Notification of Holding Zaza Mamulaishvili 0 0 71453026

Madpunter
27 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
bugsy-b posted this on the FRR bb :-
It's starting to look like it's all about the deep gas potential in Georgia and onshore Azerbaijan...
Schlumberger going down to 5000 metres in Georgia....

B.P. recently bought 61% of Azerbaijans onshore Gobustan field.....

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-bp-azerbaijan/bp-buys-61-percent-stake-in-azerbaijans-gobustan-onshore-project-idUKKCN1LU270

Wood Mackenzies report on B.P. in Gobustan could almost be describing some of Fronteras old wells..

"Report summary
BP and Vitol operate the onshore Southwest Gobustan Contract Area in Azerbaijan. BP farmed-in to the project in 2018 to evaluate deep exploration potential.The area includes nine fields, of which two are currently onstream: Dashgil Delaniz and Duvanny. All were discovered in the Soviet era and have been redeveloped since the 1990s. However, they are mature and current oil output is minimal, at less than 50 b/d.We expect production from existing discoveries to cease in the 2020s"

https://www.woodmac.com/reports/upstream-oil-and-gas-southwest-gobustan-contract-area-550786

Looks like we're surrounded lads ;-)

Madpunter
27 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Posted by CF73 :-
Worth taking a look at the news of Exxon in West Georgia again:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://georgiatoday.ge/news/12894/ExxonMobil-to-Study-Hydrocarbon-Resources-in-Georgia

ExxonMobil to Study Hydrocarbon Resources in Georgia

On October 23, an agreement on conducting fieldworks on hydrocarbon resources in Georgia was signed by the LEPL State Agency for Oil and Gas of the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia and private company ExxonMobil. The Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development, Giorgi Kobulia, attended the signing ceremony.

Within the scope of the Agreement, the company will evaluate the potential of hydrocarbons in West Georgia. The parties agreed that after completing an examination of the geological and geophysical data transmitted by the Agency to the company, ExxonMobil will prepare a report and an integrated database.

“The fact that such a large company that is a leading company in the world got interested in Georgia’s potential in terms of oil and gas, is a promising fact of outstanding significance. We are looking for having the opportunity to use the gas and oil resources for the good of our country,” said Kobulia.

Exxon representative Jonathan Wilson expressed his satisfaction with their cooperation with Georgia, and are looking forward to studying Georgian hydrocarbon potential.

“On behalf of ExxonMobil I would to say what a pleasure it is to sign this cooperation agreement today. We have worked for a decade in the Black Sea and the surrounding areas, and it is a pleasure to extend our knowledge and experience to evaluate the potential of Georgia. We look forward to working closely with the state agency involved in the gas sector. And it is a great pleasure to sign this agreement here in this beautiful city of Tbilisi,” remarked Wilson.

The Head of the LEPL State Agency for Oil and Gas, Giorgi Tatishvili, highlighted the importance of cooperation with one of the largest companies in the world, saying "Following the Agreement, ExxonMobil will examine the data provided by our agency and then prepare the Evaluation Report on Hydrocarbon Potential in West Georgia. We will use that Report for further planning which should lead us to new sources of oil and gas."

Tatishvili also noted that ExxonMobil will provide trainings for Agency employees to perfect their skills in using the database and stratigraphic analysis.

By Samantha Guthrie

Photo: Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development
25 October 2018 17:52

Madpunter
27 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Posted by bugsy-b :-
"Investigation of gas supplies started at 5000 meters deep in Georgia
access_time2018-10-19 16:20:05"

"Schlumberger Rustaveli Company started gas search operations in Georgia.

According to Temur Gochitashvili, representative of "Oil and Gas Corporation", search of gas reserves is going on in sedimentary rocks in the depths of 5 000 meters, which is the first case in Georgia. He said about it on Maestro TV.

Gochitashvili will increase the oil and gas exploration activities in the area of ​​the so-called Eocene (3500 m), where it is usually oil reserves..In lower ezone sediments, there is a high probability of gas supplies"....

https://commersant.ge/ge/post/saqartveloshi-5000-metris-sigrmeze-gazis-maragebis-dzieba-daiwyo

Madpunter
27 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Part 1 posted by Bluevista :-
So I think we should have a look at the ducks lining up. Note I've not had time to put this into a chronological order nor is it exhaustive - so please feel free to add.

Georgian ducks:

1. Mole reminded us that the Georgian Presidential election is this weekend. Likely candidate to win being supported by the incumbent Georgian Dream party. Key issue being economy and jobs. Any major deal would be unlikely to be announced before there is political stability, given the proximity of this election. Election this weekend, and the Georgian Dream preferred candidate winning is Duck number 1.
2. GG announced the Exxon visit earlier this year, socialising the fact that Super Major O&G business are showing interest in Georgia. Duck 2.
3. GG dismantled and integrated the old Energy Ministry, which had an antagonistic relationship with FRR, into the Ministry for the Economy and Sustainable Development. Duck 3.
4. Georgian PM appoints Giorgi Kobulia as Economy Minister. Kobulia was a former senior partner at McKinsey consulting business, where he led the Moscow based consulting practice for Oil and Gas strategy, amongst other things. He knows what he's doing, in relation to hydrocarbon strategy and will have relationships already with major global players. Duck 4.
5. GG announced signing agreement with ExxonMobil to study hydrocarbon resources in Western Georgia, and train up GOGC staff in analysis techniques. Low value investment by Exxon, high value service to GOGC/GG. Duck 5.

Frontera ducks:
Too many to mention but key to me are:

1. SN and Zaza convert debt to shares at conversion price of 1 p per share, fully aligning themselves with retail shareholders. Clean up balance sheet. Duck 6
2. Launch 3 well campaign plus UD2 drilling on an apparent 'go it alone' strategy. Successfully concludes all drilling and completions in Taribani. Asset proven. Duck 7
3. Potential partners influence drilling of T39 to Z19… massive conventional O&G play confirmed. Duck 8
4. FRR swamped by tech and commercial teams from two Super Majors and responds by re-engaging qualified staff. Duck 9
5. Super Majors super computer tells majors 'we got it wrong' - resource estimates are in fact greater than FRR had estimated and greater than NSA CPR… oh, and they can improve extraction cost assumptions too. Duck 10
6. Super Majors signs NDA x2 including EWT due diligence and stress testing the wells, and engages in commercial discussions. Duck 11
7. I could go on but you get the point…. But its enough for Zaza to say we have a 'brilliant future'. Duck 12

Cont.

Madpunter
27 Oct '18

Premium Chat Member
Part 2 posted by Bluevista :-
Exxon ducks:

1. Withdraws from major JV with Rosneft (March 18) citing Western sanctions against Russia. Exxon and Rosneft had expected to invest upwards of $500 billion. Where do they close that gap? Duck 13
2. Then in March 2018, Exxon made its most extensive multiyear forecast yet at its annual investor day in New York. The company aims to boost daily production by a million barrels a day, to five million barrels (with natural gas converted to an equivalent amount of oil) and increase profit by 135% by 2025. Duck 14
3. Exxon acquires 2.5 percent stake in the Azeri Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline in March 18. They have a seat at the table on the transportation side, route to market tick. Duck 15
4. ExxonMobil to study hydrocarbon resources in Western Georgia, and train up GOGC staff in analysis techniques. Low value investment by Exxon, high value service to GOGC/GG (repeating above, but they're officially in Georgia in in bed with GG). Duck 16

I think this is coming together nicely.



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