"The UK is over its experiment of combining fiscal and monetary austerity," sentenced analysts at Swiss broker UBS this morning.
So much so in fact that in their opinion the incoming Bank of England governor's openness to monetary policy innovation may not even need to be tested if, as they expect, banks return to lending.
Furthermore, the loosening of Basel liquidity rules announced on January 6th further improves banks' [debt] issuance calendar they say - gross issuance could be down by more than 80% compared with 2011.
"Some reduction in required mortgage deposits would unblock a housing market where renting has become substantially more expensive than buying," they conclude.
For all of the above reasons they have revised their price target on Lloyds to 60p (from 50p) that for Barclays to 315p (from 255p) and RBS to 410p.
Following Tuesday's failure of the negotiations between China National Gold (CNG) and Barrick Gold (ABX), regarding Barrick's 74% stake in African Barrick Gold (ABG), analysts at Nomura see: "little incentive for value investors to hold ABG into results, potentially leaving the shares directionless at around the ~350p/share level."
Despite that, longer-term potential remains; operational review to focus on value accretive production and cash flow generation.
As well, the operational review could also see a change in focus, with central costs rationalised and potential for the marginal Buzwagi mine to be closed, which longer term could be positive.
The target price now stands at 435p versus 525 before and the shares are downgraded to neutral, from buy.
Analysts at UBS believe that Lloyds is set to deliver rising margins, falling costs and falling provisions, over the next few years, which should provide a very strong upswing to profitability and EPS momentum.
Arguing in favour of the above, they think that the future regulatory agenda will be less aggressive than what we have experienced over the last 18 months, the bank has the simplest investment strategy and its balance sheet contraction is set to reverse.
Regarding that last point, UBS highlights how - unlike RBS and Barclays, which have been lending strongly into the UK mortgage market while contracting balance sheets in other areas - Lloyds has been shrinking both its non-core assets in 2012 and its core lending into the UK mortgage market as well.
Datafeed and UK data supplied by NETbuilder and Interactive Data.
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