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Week Ahead: Bovis, Persimmon, Diageo, UK GDP
Fri, 17th Aug 2012 09:49
Results season for the house builders is upon us, and Bovis Homes kicks it off on Monday after releasing what Peel Hunt regarded as the weakest trading statement of all the companies in the sector back in July.
Peel Hunt's beef is with Bovis's margins, which the broker thinks look set to slip below the levels seen in the second half of last year.
Peel Hunt is forecasting headline pre-tax profit of £14.6m, or £10.7m if land sale profits are excluded.
"We exclude land because of its weight: it represents 30% of pure housing profits," Peel Hunt explains.
"Bovis is trying hard to rectify a poor ROIC [return on investment capital] but we still cannot see the return being higher than 6.5% even by 2014 with the risks being more towards undershooting than beating current consensus. This must drag on valuation," argues the broker, which has a "sell" recommendation on Bovis.
Bovis's sector peer, Persimmon, follows up on Tuesday with its interims. "Attention will focus on current trade comments in our view, in order to get a feel for the sector's health ahead of the important Autumn trading season," Panmure Gordon said.
"We heard from Taylor Wimpey and Bellway a couple of weeks ago that July had perhaps been a little better than expectations with sales rates still ahead YOY [year-on-year] (though the volume of sales was much reduced due to the normal seasonal profile of sales). It will be interesting to see if August has maintained that momentum so far, so that we can get a picture of how the sector will run into September when trading becomes more important," the broker continued.
Panmure Gordon is forecasting an interim profit before tax of £90.9m, which is in excess of a 50% increase YOY.
Diageo steps up to the bar on Thursday with full-year figures. The market is going for sales of £10.75bn for the spirits distiller and Guinness brewer, and profit before tax of £2.94bn. Investment analysts have pencilled in an earnings per share figure of 92.1p, and a full-year divi of 44.33p.
Charles Stanley is forecasting earnings before interest, tax and amortisation of £3.19bn.
"Asia, Africa and Latin America are expected to have been the drivers of growth, with more subdued performances in North America and Europe. We forecast group sales to be up by 6.5% on an organic basis, driven by a mixture of volume growth and improved mix," revealed Charles Stanley's Sam Hart.
On the economic front, the stats compilers have another go on Friday at guessing what UK gross domestic product (GDP) was in the second quarter of 2012. Expectations are that GDP will have shrunk 0.5% during the quarter to a level down 0.6% year-on-year. Those figures, if correct, would represent a slight improvement on the first stab at estimating GDP, which suggested the UK economy had shrunk by an eye-watering 0.7% during the quarter, after declining by 0.3% in the first quarter.
Monday August 20
INTERIMS
Amlin, Bovis Homes Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Crystal Amber Fund Ltd.
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Caterpillar Inc.
GMS
Albany Inv Trust, Indian Restaurants Group
EGMS
Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd.
AGMS
Peer TV
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
London Stock Exchange Group, Mountview Estate
Tuesday August 21
INTERIMS
Afren, Capital Drilling Ltd. (DI), Coca-Cola HBC S.A., CPP Group, Fisher (James) & Sons, Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI), Glencore International, H&T Group, Persimmon, Severfield-Rowen, Source BioScience, UK Commercial Property Trust, Wood Group (John)
Q2
ADC African Development Corporation GmbH
GMS
ILX Group
ANNUAL REPORT
Falkland Islands Holdings
AGMS
Falkland Islands Holdings, Goldman Sachs Dynamic Opportunities Ltd, World Trust Fund
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)
Public Sector Finances (09:30)
Wednesday August 22
INTERIMS
Carillion, Clarkson, Derwent London, Elringklinger AG, Frutarom Industries Ltd GDR (Reg S), Hardy Oil & Gas, Kenmare Resources, London Capital Group Holdings, Melrose Resources, office2office, Plaza Centers NV, Soco International, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, TT Electronics
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
IDOX
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BlackRock World Mining Trust, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Capital & Counties Properties , Catlin Group Ltd., CRH, Dragon Oil, Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., Fidessa Group, Henderson Opportunities Trust, InterContinental Hotels Group, Mondi, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Prudential, Puma VCT V, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Income Shares, Secure Trust Bank, St James's Place, Standard Life, Stanley Gibbons Group, Synectics, Taylor Wimpey, UBM, Witan Inv Trust, Xaar
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Canaccord Financial Inc., Carnival
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)
FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Q2
Frutarom Industries Ltd GDR (Reg S)
FINALS
BHP Billiton
ANNUAL REPORT
Immofinanz AG
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
PHSC
AGMS
Aberdeen New Dawn Inv Trust, Latham (James)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Halma
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Cohort, Eckoh, First Property Group, iEnergizer Ltd., NWF Group, PHSC
Thursday August 23
INTERIMS
Aegis Group, Alpha UK Multi Property Trust, AZ Electronic Materials SA (DI), Camellia, Delcam, Genel Energy, IMI, Kazakhmys, New World Resources A Shares, Petropavlovsk, Premier Oil, Salamander Energy, Signet Jewelers Ltd., Sportech, STV Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
House Price Index (US) (15:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
New Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Q2
New World Resources A Shares, Signet Jewelers Ltd., Wentworth Resources Ltd (CDI)
Q4
Haynes Publishing Group
GMS
Norseman Gold
FINALS
Diageo, Haynes Publishing Group
AGMS
Aberforth Geared Income Trust, Ten Alps
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)
CBI Distributive Trades Surveys (11:00)
Friday August 24
INTERIMS
Aga Rangemaster Group, Berendsen, Henry Boot
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Edinburgh UK Tracker Trust, Microgen, Throgmorton Trust
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Picton Property Income Ltd
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)
GMS
Mouchel Group, Small Companies Dividend Trust
FINALS
Eurocommercial Properties NV
ANNUAL REPORT
Renishaw
AGMS
IRET Securities Ltd Zero Div Pref, Pathfinder Minerals , Pathfinder Minerals , Picton Property Income Ltd, Stagecoach Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (output, income & expenditure) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberdeen New Dawn Inv Trust, AEC Education, Heath (Samuel) & Sons, Latham (James), Puma VCT V, RIT Capital Partners, Volex
Peel Hunt's beef is with Bovis's margins, which the broker thinks look set to slip below the levels seen in the second half of last year.
Peel Hunt is forecasting headline pre-tax profit of £14.6m, or £10.7m if land sale profits are excluded.
"We exclude land because of its weight: it represents 30% of pure housing profits," Peel Hunt explains.
"Bovis is trying hard to rectify a poor ROIC [return on investment capital] but we still cannot see the return being higher than 6.5% even by 2014 with the risks being more towards undershooting than beating current consensus. This must drag on valuation," argues the broker, which has a "sell" recommendation on Bovis.
Bovis's sector peer, Persimmon, follows up on Tuesday with its interims. "Attention will focus on current trade comments in our view, in order to get a feel for the sector's health ahead of the important Autumn trading season," Panmure Gordon said.
"We heard from Taylor Wimpey and Bellway a couple of weeks ago that July had perhaps been a little better than expectations with sales rates still ahead YOY [year-on-year] (though the volume of sales was much reduced due to the normal seasonal profile of sales). It will be interesting to see if August has maintained that momentum so far, so that we can get a picture of how the sector will run into September when trading becomes more important," the broker continued.
Panmure Gordon is forecasting an interim profit before tax of £90.9m, which is in excess of a 50% increase YOY.
Diageo steps up to the bar on Thursday with full-year figures. The market is going for sales of £10.75bn for the spirits distiller and Guinness brewer, and profit before tax of £2.94bn. Investment analysts have pencilled in an earnings per share figure of 92.1p, and a full-year divi of 44.33p.
Charles Stanley is forecasting earnings before interest, tax and amortisation of £3.19bn.
"Asia, Africa and Latin America are expected to have been the drivers of growth, with more subdued performances in North America and Europe. We forecast group sales to be up by 6.5% on an organic basis, driven by a mixture of volume growth and improved mix," revealed Charles Stanley's Sam Hart.
On the economic front, the stats compilers have another go on Friday at guessing what UK gross domestic product (GDP) was in the second quarter of 2012. Expectations are that GDP will have shrunk 0.5% during the quarter to a level down 0.6% year-on-year. Those figures, if correct, would represent a slight improvement on the first stab at estimating GDP, which suggested the UK economy had shrunk by an eye-watering 0.7% during the quarter, after declining by 0.3% in the first quarter.
Monday August 20
INTERIMS
Amlin, Bovis Homes Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Crystal Amber Fund Ltd.
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Caterpillar Inc.
GMS
Albany Inv Trust, Indian Restaurants Group
EGMS
Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd.
AGMS
Peer TV
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
London Stock Exchange Group, Mountview Estate
Tuesday August 21
INTERIMS
Afren, Capital Drilling Ltd. (DI), Coca-Cola HBC S.A., CPP Group, Fisher (James) & Sons, Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI), Glencore International, H&T Group, Persimmon, Severfield-Rowen, Source BioScience, UK Commercial Property Trust, Wood Group (John)
Q2
ADC African Development Corporation GmbH
GMS
ILX Group
ANNUAL REPORT
Falkland Islands Holdings
AGMS
Falkland Islands Holdings, Goldman Sachs Dynamic Opportunities Ltd, World Trust Fund
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)
Public Sector Finances (09:30)
Wednesday August 22
INTERIMS
Carillion, Clarkson, Derwent London, Elringklinger AG, Frutarom Industries Ltd GDR (Reg S), Hardy Oil & Gas, Kenmare Resources, London Capital Group Holdings, Melrose Resources, office2office, Plaza Centers NV, Soco International, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, TT Electronics
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
IDOX
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BlackRock World Mining Trust, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Capital & Counties Properties , Catlin Group Ltd., CRH, Dragon Oil, Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., Fidessa Group, Henderson Opportunities Trust, InterContinental Hotels Group, Mondi, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Prudential, Puma VCT V, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Income Shares, Secure Trust Bank, St James's Place, Standard Life, Stanley Gibbons Group, Synectics, Taylor Wimpey, UBM, Witan Inv Trust, Xaar
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Canaccord Financial Inc., Carnival
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)
FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Q2
Frutarom Industries Ltd GDR (Reg S)
FINALS
BHP Billiton
ANNUAL REPORT
Immofinanz AG
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
PHSC
AGMS
Aberdeen New Dawn Inv Trust, Latham (James)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Halma
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Cohort, Eckoh, First Property Group, iEnergizer Ltd., NWF Group, PHSC
Thursday August 23
INTERIMS
Aegis Group, Alpha UK Multi Property Trust, AZ Electronic Materials SA (DI), Camellia, Delcam, Genel Energy, IMI, Kazakhmys, New World Resources A Shares, Petropavlovsk, Premier Oil, Salamander Energy, Signet Jewelers Ltd., Sportech, STV Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
House Price Index (US) (15:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
New Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Q2
New World Resources A Shares, Signet Jewelers Ltd., Wentworth Resources Ltd (CDI)
Q4
Haynes Publishing Group
GMS
Norseman Gold
FINALS
Diageo, Haynes Publishing Group
AGMS
Aberforth Geared Income Trust, Ten Alps
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)
CBI Distributive Trades Surveys (11:00)
Friday August 24
INTERIMS
Aga Rangemaster Group, Berendsen, Henry Boot
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Edinburgh UK Tracker Trust, Microgen, Throgmorton Trust
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Picton Property Income Ltd
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)
GMS
Mouchel Group, Small Companies Dividend Trust
FINALS
Eurocommercial Properties NV
ANNUAL REPORT
Renishaw
AGMS
IRET Securities Ltd Zero Div Pref, Pathfinder Minerals , Pathfinder Minerals , Picton Property Income Ltd, Stagecoach Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (output, income & expenditure) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberdeen New Dawn Inv Trust, AEC Education, Heath (Samuel) & Sons, Latham (James), Puma VCT V, RIT Capital Partners, Volex
