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Week Ahead: HSBC, BP, BoE rate decision, US jobs ...
Fri, 27th Jul 2012 09:24
Though not as busy as the week just ended, next week has its fair share of big events, including results from BP, the Bank of England's interest rate decision and US jobs data for July.
On Monday, under-fire banking giant HSBC and household goods titan Reckitt Benckiser get the week underway.
HSBC has been sweltering in the spotlight recently after being found wanting in its money-laundering prevention checks. Barclays proved on Friday, however, that the market is prepared to overlook lapses in judgement if the numbers are good enough.
The number for HSBC to aim for is $12,144m, being the consensus estimate profit before tax. The market is expecting earnings per share of 48 cents, a dividend of 18 cents and, in all probability, an apology from HSBC management for past misdemeanours and oversights.
Analysts will be looking out for any increase in provisions for the mis-selling of payment protection insurance (PPI) claims, while wage inflation in Asia has been flagged in the past as a concern.
Reckitt Benckiser will have to go some to match fellow Anglo-Dutch sector peer Unilever's recent results. The first quarter performance was promising, however, with the group's like-for-like sales (excluding Reckitt Benckiser Pharmaceuticals) up 4% year-on-year.
BP's results will also, inevitably, be compared to an Anglo-Dutch competitor; in BP's case, Shell.
Broker Charles Stanley thinks net income for the second quarter will be down to $5.1bn from $5.6bn the year before. The broker predicts a quarterly dividend of 8 cents, up from 7 cents a year ago.
"In our opinion, the current key issues are the disposal of TNK-BP and settlement with the US Dept of Justice over the Macondo tragedy in the Gulf of Mexico," says Charles Stanley oil guru Tony Shepard.
Having raised our hopes, Shepard goes on to say: "Both of these issues are unlikely to be addressed by the Q2/interim results."
Turning to things that definitely will be covered in the statement, Shepard suggests BP's second quarter (Q2) production volumes, excluding Russia, could be 2% lower year-on-year, and notes that the average Brent Oil price was about 7% lower than last year at $108 a barrel, or 9% lower than the price in the first quarter of this year.
"New developments have come on stream in the second quarter but Q2 production will be affected by maintenance and we anticipate an E&P [exploration and production] profit of $6.4bn (2011; $7.3bn). The Downstream activities could show an improvement in profit to about $1.8bn (2011; $1.4bn)," Shepard said.
On Thursday, the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision and for the first time in years, we cannot blithely assume that the rate will be kept the same.
The terrible second quarter gross domestic product number has raised the prospect of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) countenancing a halving of the current rate, to 0.25%. However, most pundits expect the MPC to stand pat, to see what effect the recent topping up of the asset purchase pot will have.
On Friday, the market-moving US non-farm payrolls numbers for July are scheduled for release. After June saw an 80,000 increase in the payrolls, economists are looking for an increase of just under 100,000. The unemployment rate is seen staying at 8.2%.
Monday July 30
INTERIMS
Banco Espirito Santo SA N Shs, Eramet SA, Fidessa Group, Hiscox Ltd., HSBC, Keller Group, Reckitt Benckiser Group, Ultra Electronics Holdings
Q1
Ryanair
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Compass Group
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Dow Chemical Co
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)
PMI Retail (EU) (09:00)
PMI Retail (GER) (08:55)
GMS
Asterand
IMSS
National Grid
AGMS
China Private Equity Investment Holdingd Ltd. (DI), Griffin Mining Ltd., Kingswalk Investments Ltd, National Grid
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Distributive Trades Surveys (11:00)
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
M4 Sterling Lending (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
Trends in Lending (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
B.P. Marsh & Partners, Hogg Robinson Group, JD Sports Fashion, PayPoint
Tuesday July 31
INTERIMS
BP, Brammer, Burford Capital Ltd., Capital & Counties, Devro, Dignity, Elementis, Erste Group Bank AG, Fresnillo, GKN, Hutchison China Meditech Ltd, Inchcape, Jcdecaux SA, LSL Property Services, Man SE, Rotork, Tullett Prebon, Weir group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aer Lingus Group, Chrysalis VCT
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
JP Morgan Chase & Co, Middlefield Canadian Income PCC, Schroder Income Growth Fund
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (13:45)
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)
International Reserves (EU) (11:00)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)
Personal Income (US) (13:30)
Personal Spending (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
Q2
BP, Wolfson Microelectronics
GMS
Evolve Capital, Lighthouse Group
FINALS
Allocate Software, Games Workshop
ANNUAL REPORT
Dart Group
AGMS
Better Capital Pcc Ltd (2009), Better Capital Pcc Ltd (2012), Cazenove Absolute Equity Ltd, Creon Resources, e-Therapeutics, Hansa Trust, Metro Baltic Horizons, Schroder UK Growth Fund, Strategic Natural Resources, Water Intelligence
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Confidence (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Edinburgh Inv Trust, Investec Structured Products Calculus VCT, Investec Structured Products Calculus VCT 'C' Shares, May Gurney Integrated Services, Norcros, Panther Securities, Rensburg AIM VCT, Restore
PRODUCTION UPDATE
Vedanta
Wednesday August 01
INTERIMS
Avocet Mining, F&C Asset Management, Fiberweb, Filtrona PLC, First Quantum Minerals Ltd., International Power, Jupiter Fund Management , Rexam, Rightmove, Shire Plc, Smurfit Kappa Group, Standard Chartered, StatPro Group, Taylor Wimpey, Vernalis, Xchanging
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Electronic Data Processing
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BG Group, Brunner Inv Trust, Domino's Pizza Group, Impellam Group, Mecom Group, Microgen, Nichols, Porvair
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Mercantile Investment Trust (The), Torchmark Corp., Verizon Communications
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (15:00)
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
FOMC Interest Rate (US) (17:15)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
Q2
Avocet Mining, First Quantum Minerals Ltd., Shire Plc, Smurfit Kappa Group
EGMS
Transense Technologies
AGMS
Atkins (WS), CML Microsystems, Cranswick, Cropper (James)
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Next
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Homeserve, Next, Phoenix IT Group, Record, Shanks Group, TR Property Inv Trust, TR Property Inv Trust Sigma Shares, Vodafone Group
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aberdeen New Dawn Inv Trust, Creston, Heath (Samuel) & Sons, Johnson Matthey, JPMorgan Euro Small Co. Trust, Latham (James), ProVen Growth & Income VCT
PRODUCTION UPDATE
Antofagasta, ENRC
Thursday August 02
INTERIMS
4Imprint Group, Aggreko, Alliance Trust, BAE Systems, Ladbrokes, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Robert Walters, RPS Group, RSA Insurance Group, Schroders, Schroders (Non-Voting), SEGRO, Smith & Nephew, Spirent Communications, Trinity Mirror
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
Goods Orders (US) (15:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Q2
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Smith & Nephew
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Hyder Consulting
GMS
Forte Energy NL
IMSS
Thomas Cook Group
AGMS
AFI Development, African Minerals Ltd., Federal Bank Ltd (The) GDR (REGS), Hyder Consulting, Investec
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
PMI Construction (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Burberry Group, Dairy Crest Group, De La Rue, Dee Valley Group, Dee Valley Group (Non-Voting), Mckay Securities, UBC Media Group
Friday August 03
INTERIMS
Bank Pekao SA GDS (Reg S), Inmarsat, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI), Logica, Novae Group, Rentokil, Royal Bank of Scotland Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Chemring Group, Driver Group, Heavitree Brewery, Heavitree Brewery 'A' Shares
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Investors Capital Trust 'A' Shares, Investors Capital Trust 'B' Shares
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
IMSS
Diploma
TRAFFIC STATS
International Consolidated Airlines
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Octopus Eclipse VCT 2, Walker Crips Group
AGMS
Alpha Tiger Property Trust Ltd., Hotel Corporation (The), Indian Hotels Company Ltd. GDR (Reg S)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Services (09:30)
UK Official Reserves (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Bond International Software, Carphone Warehouse Group, Charles Stanley Group, CML Microsystems, E2V Technologies, Establishment Inv Trust, Fidelity China Special Situations , Halfords Group, Invensys, Lindsell Train Inv Trust, Octopus Eclipse VCT 2, Plastics Capital, TalkTalk Telecom Group , Tate & Lyle, Telecom Plus, United Utilities Group, Workspace Group
JH
On Monday, under-fire banking giant HSBC and household goods titan Reckitt Benckiser get the week underway.
HSBC has been sweltering in the spotlight recently after being found wanting in its money-laundering prevention checks. Barclays proved on Friday, however, that the market is prepared to overlook lapses in judgement if the numbers are good enough.
The number for HSBC to aim for is $12,144m, being the consensus estimate profit before tax. The market is expecting earnings per share of 48 cents, a dividend of 18 cents and, in all probability, an apology from HSBC management for past misdemeanours and oversights.
Analysts will be looking out for any increase in provisions for the mis-selling of payment protection insurance (PPI) claims, while wage inflation in Asia has been flagged in the past as a concern.
Reckitt Benckiser will have to go some to match fellow Anglo-Dutch sector peer Unilever's recent results. The first quarter performance was promising, however, with the group's like-for-like sales (excluding Reckitt Benckiser Pharmaceuticals) up 4% year-on-year.
BP's results will also, inevitably, be compared to an Anglo-Dutch competitor; in BP's case, Shell.
Broker Charles Stanley thinks net income for the second quarter will be down to $5.1bn from $5.6bn the year before. The broker predicts a quarterly dividend of 8 cents, up from 7 cents a year ago.
"In our opinion, the current key issues are the disposal of TNK-BP and settlement with the US Dept of Justice over the Macondo tragedy in the Gulf of Mexico," says Charles Stanley oil guru Tony Shepard.
Having raised our hopes, Shepard goes on to say: "Both of these issues are unlikely to be addressed by the Q2/interim results."
Turning to things that definitely will be covered in the statement, Shepard suggests BP's second quarter (Q2) production volumes, excluding Russia, could be 2% lower year-on-year, and notes that the average Brent Oil price was about 7% lower than last year at $108 a barrel, or 9% lower than the price in the first quarter of this year.
"New developments have come on stream in the second quarter but Q2 production will be affected by maintenance and we anticipate an E&P [exploration and production] profit of $6.4bn (2011; $7.3bn). The Downstream activities could show an improvement in profit to about $1.8bn (2011; $1.4bn)," Shepard said.
On Thursday, the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision and for the first time in years, we cannot blithely assume that the rate will be kept the same.
The terrible second quarter gross domestic product number has raised the prospect of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) countenancing a halving of the current rate, to 0.25%. However, most pundits expect the MPC to stand pat, to see what effect the recent topping up of the asset purchase pot will have.
On Friday, the market-moving US non-farm payrolls numbers for July are scheduled for release. After June saw an 80,000 increase in the payrolls, economists are looking for an increase of just under 100,000. The unemployment rate is seen staying at 8.2%.
Monday July 30
INTERIMS
Banco Espirito Santo SA N Shs, Eramet SA, Fidessa Group, Hiscox Ltd., HSBC, Keller Group, Reckitt Benckiser Group, Ultra Electronics Holdings
Q1
Ryanair
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Compass Group
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Dow Chemical Co
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)
PMI Retail (EU) (09:00)
PMI Retail (GER) (08:55)
GMS
Asterand
IMSS
National Grid
AGMS
China Private Equity Investment Holdingd Ltd. (DI), Griffin Mining Ltd., Kingswalk Investments Ltd, National Grid
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Distributive Trades Surveys (11:00)
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
M4 Sterling Lending (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
Trends in Lending (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
B.P. Marsh & Partners, Hogg Robinson Group, JD Sports Fashion, PayPoint
Tuesday July 31
INTERIMS
BP, Brammer, Burford Capital Ltd., Capital & Counties, Devro, Dignity, Elementis, Erste Group Bank AG, Fresnillo, GKN, Hutchison China Meditech Ltd, Inchcape, Jcdecaux SA, LSL Property Services, Man SE, Rotork, Tullett Prebon, Weir group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aer Lingus Group, Chrysalis VCT
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
JP Morgan Chase & Co, Middlefield Canadian Income PCC, Schroder Income Growth Fund
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (13:45)
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)
International Reserves (EU) (11:00)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)
Personal Income (US) (13:30)
Personal Spending (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
Q2
BP, Wolfson Microelectronics
GMS
Evolve Capital, Lighthouse Group
FINALS
Allocate Software, Games Workshop
ANNUAL REPORT
Dart Group
AGMS
Better Capital Pcc Ltd (2009), Better Capital Pcc Ltd (2012), Cazenove Absolute Equity Ltd, Creon Resources, e-Therapeutics, Hansa Trust, Metro Baltic Horizons, Schroder UK Growth Fund, Strategic Natural Resources, Water Intelligence
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Confidence (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Edinburgh Inv Trust, Investec Structured Products Calculus VCT, Investec Structured Products Calculus VCT 'C' Shares, May Gurney Integrated Services, Norcros, Panther Securities, Rensburg AIM VCT, Restore
PRODUCTION UPDATE
Vedanta
Wednesday August 01
INTERIMS
Avocet Mining, F&C Asset Management, Fiberweb, Filtrona PLC, First Quantum Minerals Ltd., International Power, Jupiter Fund Management , Rexam, Rightmove, Shire Plc, Smurfit Kappa Group, Standard Chartered, StatPro Group, Taylor Wimpey, Vernalis, Xchanging
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Electronic Data Processing
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BG Group, Brunner Inv Trust, Domino's Pizza Group, Impellam Group, Mecom Group, Microgen, Nichols, Porvair
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Mercantile Investment Trust (The), Torchmark Corp., Verizon Communications
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (15:00)
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
FOMC Interest Rate (US) (17:15)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
Q2
Avocet Mining, First Quantum Minerals Ltd., Shire Plc, Smurfit Kappa Group
EGMS
Transense Technologies
AGMS
Atkins (WS), CML Microsystems, Cranswick, Cropper (James)
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Next
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Homeserve, Next, Phoenix IT Group, Record, Shanks Group, TR Property Inv Trust, TR Property Inv Trust Sigma Shares, Vodafone Group
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aberdeen New Dawn Inv Trust, Creston, Heath (Samuel) & Sons, Johnson Matthey, JPMorgan Euro Small Co. Trust, Latham (James), ProVen Growth & Income VCT
PRODUCTION UPDATE
Antofagasta, ENRC
Thursday August 02
INTERIMS
4Imprint Group, Aggreko, Alliance Trust, BAE Systems, Ladbrokes, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Robert Walters, RPS Group, RSA Insurance Group, Schroders, Schroders (Non-Voting), SEGRO, Smith & Nephew, Spirent Communications, Trinity Mirror
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
Goods Orders (US) (15:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Q2
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Smith & Nephew
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Hyder Consulting
GMS
Forte Energy NL
IMSS
Thomas Cook Group
AGMS
AFI Development, African Minerals Ltd., Federal Bank Ltd (The) GDR (REGS), Hyder Consulting, Investec
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
PMI Construction (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Burberry Group, Dairy Crest Group, De La Rue, Dee Valley Group, Dee Valley Group (Non-Voting), Mckay Securities, UBC Media Group
Friday August 03
INTERIMS
Bank Pekao SA GDS (Reg S), Inmarsat, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI), Logica, Novae Group, Rentokil, Royal Bank of Scotland Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Chemring Group, Driver Group, Heavitree Brewery, Heavitree Brewery 'A' Shares
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Investors Capital Trust 'A' Shares, Investors Capital Trust 'B' Shares
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
IMSS
Diploma
TRAFFIC STATS
International Consolidated Airlines
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Octopus Eclipse VCT 2, Walker Crips Group
AGMS
Alpha Tiger Property Trust Ltd., Hotel Corporation (The), Indian Hotels Company Ltd. GDR (Reg S)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Services (09:30)
UK Official Reserves (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Bond International Software, Carphone Warehouse Group, Charles Stanley Group, CML Microsystems, E2V Technologies, Establishment Inv Trust, Fidelity China Special Situations , Halfords Group, Invensys, Lindsell Train Inv Trust, Octopus Eclipse VCT 2, Plastics Capital, TalkTalk Telecom Group , Tate & Lyle, Telecom Plus, United Utilities Group, Workspace Group
JH
