Monday is Memorial Day in the US, unofficially the start of summer, and there is a bit of a holiday feel in the UK, as well, with the flood of trading updates thinning out a little.
AVEVA, the provider of engineering data and design information technology systems, will be announcing its preliminary results for the year ended March 31st 2012 on Monday.
UBS, which recently upgraded the stock to "neutral" from "sell", is expecting the group to give a positive outlook for the current financial year. It is now modelling sales accelerating to an underlying increase 16% from 6% in the first half, driven mainly by higher licence growth.
"We expect much of the focus on 28 May to be around momentum in Enterprise Solutions (UBS estimate: +37% to £26m) and progress with both large accounts in winning business and in developing deeper channel relationships. We are not expecting any large enterprise-wide deals, but these remain the keenly awaited catalyst of the bulls," UBS said.
The market is expecting revenue of £191.9m and profit before tax of £60.9m. UBS is predicting earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of £61m, up from £54m the year before. Panmure Gordon goes for adjusted profit before tax of £73.7m, leading to earnings per share of 75.6p.
The consensus (median) view is that earnings per share will rise to 63.41p from 56.08p the prior year, and the full year dividend is predicted to advance to 20.96p from 18.25p the year before.
Panmure Gordon thinks the results will not be the catalyst the under-performing shares need.
"While there are interesting wild cards - such as will the momentum that ended the
fy continue into Q1 [first quarter], the potential for a 'special' given the cash mountain, outlook for AsiaPac and of course interest from Misys shareholders - given the macro headwinds, currency exposure coupled with the valuation (shares are valued at a P/E [price/earnings ratio] 21x - ex cash they are 18x), we think that shares need an operational driver for a break-out rather than an in line set of results," is Panmure Gordon's view.
"There are concerns about the outlook for nuclear. Nuclear is c5% of total [revenue]. Aveva has a long history and track record of successful projects in different types of power. Power demand is driven by concerns over capacity and mix, renewable and eco commitments, replacement cycles and that nuclear is the only alternative for the next 20 years to meet demand," the broker added.
Later in the week, do-it-yourself retailer Kingfisher's first quarter earnings are set to confirm a weather-challenged UK performance and slowing trends in France, according to Jefferies, the US investment bank which bought venerable City broker Hoare Govett earlier this year.
It thinks first quarter sales will be down by almost 4% year-on-year, or down 2% with foreign exchange (forex) movements stripped out. The broker thinks EBIT will be up by 1%.
Comparative figures in the UK are tough, given the weather was better last year and the royal wedding provided an extra bank holiday.
"Strong progress on the gross margin front should limit the damage," the broker reckons. "In addition, the increasingly variable nature of staff costs is set to have provided further downside protection, particularly in the UK," it added.
Panmure Gordon notes that the first quarter is not particularly an important one for Kingfisher.
"We expect to see an 11% fall in B&Q's like-for-like [LFL] sales, due to the impact of tough comparisons (late Easter, hot weather), compounded by the effect of the rain upon seasonal ranges," Panmure Gordon revealed, adding that April was the wettest in the UK for a century.
"We expect a similar story in France, where April was the wettest for 60 years. Here, we look for a LFL decline of around 1% after a decent start to the year. We expect International markets to be flat in like-for-like terms (strong Russia; weak Poland and Spain)," the broker added.
Monday May 28
Aveva Group, Entertainment One Ltd. (DI), First Derivatives, Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (DI), Max Property Group, Phoenix IT Group, Volex
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
GLOBO, Matrix European Real Estate Inv Trust Ltd., Polyus Gold International Ltd GDR (Level I)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Capita, Fidessa Group
Tuesday May 29
Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Topps Tiles
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
Acal, API Group, De La Rue, FFastFill, Mckay Securities, NewRiver Retail Ltd. (Reg S), Pennon Group, Renold, Scapa Group, Torotrak
Sphere Medical Holding
Alkane Energy, Concurrent Technologies, Continental Farmers Group , Corac Group, Dillistone Group, Edinburgh US Tracker Trust, Eleco, Empresaria Group, Empresaria Group, F&C Commercial Property Trust Ltd., ISIS Property Trust Ltd., JSC KazMunaiGaz Exploration Production GDR (Reg S), Lonrho, New Britain Palm Oil Ltd. (DI), Oracle Coalfields, Oxford Advanced Surfaces Group, Tamar European Industrial Fund Ltd., Valiant Petroleum, Valirx
A&J Mucklow Group, Baronsmead VCT, Baronsmead VCT 2, British Empire Securities & General Trust, Britvic, Daily Mail and General Trust, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 1, Keystone Inv Trust, Local Shopping REIT, London Security, Lowland Investment Co, Majedie Investments, Marston's, Matchtech Group, Town Centre Securities
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Canaccord Financial Inc., Energy XXI (Bermuda) (Di), Premier Energy & Water Trust, Schlumberger Ltd.
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