That's an interesting stat, if I'm interpreting what you're reporting correctly. Can you give me a more precise link to the source, please. I've searched the ft.co.uk website, but not coming up with anything. Thanks
@WilyWoody/joncl: Yes. I think it's about time I stopped engaging with Crane :)
My view on AA is that I am certain he won't do anything like that ever again with IGas. So we might as well move on and remember he's still a fantastic CEO with great forsight. It's human nature to remember the worst of people. Let's remember all the great work he's done for us in positioning IGas to where it is. In a way all these SP-knocking shenanigans of the last several months may be a blessing in disguise to those of us who continue to topping up. The stress has definately been an experience for us all but when the SP takes off (even if only via a takeover bid) we will be glad we averaged down. Personally, I'm looking to top up heavily in the next few months if the SP stays at current levels. You're never going to make it unless you take some high risks in life (or win the lottery of course).
I’m here for the long haul too, and want steady dividends in future years in preference to selling for a good profit but losing a third of the gain in future CGT!!
I think you're wrong, though, to believe that iGas' income from its 3,000 barrels per day has declined by 40% to 50%. That might be the situation from October if the oil price hasn't corrected by then, but it will over the summer, and OPEC will be history. Until September, though, we'll do just fine with the brilliant hedge at $87.70 on 517,000 barrels up until then. (See DiviLike's excellent detailed post on this last Thursday at 14.34 – it’s on page 6 if you’re displaying 10 posts per page.)
I agree that pre-election enthusiasm for fracking will be tempered, but the reality is that whichever party wins, fracking is going to have to be embraced big time, as the brilliant "get out of debt free" card that we scarcely deserve, having been responsible for getting ourselves into the mess in the first place. One party will be more effective than the other in maximising the value of shale, of course. ;~))
Do you really believe that heading up through 40p, as we'll see early next week, is a fair price for a business if it has maybe even just a 10% chance of starting to deliver annual dividends of £2 or £3 a share in (say) 6 years time? If so, you're a hard man to please, and I'd like to know what other 40p gems as good as iGas you've got in your portfolio!! Count me in! (Personally, being the optimistic realist that I am, I have the probability of £2 to £3 annual dividends from c2020 at closer to 50%, provided that we can keep iGas independent.)
A 5th, but related reason, is that the income core of Igas at present is from 3000 barrels of oil per day. That income has declined by about 40-50%. Their future Shale production is a long way off. The price is, therefore, about right for the current situation. Another 6th reason is the lack of political will at the, pre election, to make announcements of any kind that could attract a press story that may be considered by some to have contraversal content.. Its really a case of work out the logic of Shale gas exploration and, I would say vital to the econimy of the UK and then, decide to hang on or get out. I personally am in for the long haul so if it drops to 25pps along the way, I may be startled but not panicked
I found that 647,423 trade at 12.22pm yesterday on Halifax, and on their data provider Digital Look. I'm as much in the dark as you about the origin, but it did set me thinking -- and looking hard at the wider selling of iGas in the last 6 months.
My conclusion is that the SP slide from £1.25 since July relates neither to iGas' fundamentals (post Dart and PEDL 14) nor to its exploding potential - but instead it resulted almost entirely from an odd coincidence of factors: mainly (i) supply greatly exceeding demand in 4 huge, one-off selling sprees that dwarfed the rate of new money coming in; and also (ii) OPEC's price war that's hit every O&G stock; (iii) the disruptive action of despicable, opportunist short sellers lead by a vengeful, failed fund manager in TW at ShareProphets; and (iv) that fateful arrangement between AA and EFH. In fact, with all these in play at the same time, it's a real testimony to iGas' underlying strength and attractiveness that the SP didn't drop further than it did.
Items (ii), (iii) and (iv) above need no explanation, except to note that it was a shorters' paradise that once identified, needed little effort to steal their ill-gotten gains.
But (i) above is worth more attention:
A: With the right to deal in AA's 7.5 million shares acquired as security at 93.46p, EFH saw SP peaks at £1.60 and £1.46 in Jan and June 2014. Doubtless it sold shedloads to make a fast buck. Doubtless it's sold more shedloads since June as prices slid below £1, to conjure future profits given AA's obligation to buy back all 7.5m shares at £1.0533 in 2017.
B: On 8.7.14, for personal reasons Brent Cheshire sold 33% of his iGas stake, saturating the market with 3.8m more shares.
C: On 4.11.14, in serious distress all of its own, Trap Oil sold its 2.16m shares in iGas, flooding the market again.
D: The Dart takeover completion on 16.10.14 saw just shy of 90m new iGas shares issued. Many disenchanted Dart shareholders in Oz must have cut their losses and run, partly because owning iGas shares on AIM is more awkward for them than owning Dart on ASX. Up to 25% may have sold up. A tsunami of 15m to 20m new share for sale in the past 10 weeks.
So, mostly in the last 3 months, with (c2.5m + 3.8m + 2.16m + c15.0m) over 20m shares on the market as a result of 4 unique events - on top of regular trading volumes - isn't the surprise not that the SP didn't drop even further than it did? It's a sign of strength that it didn't. From my standpoint, with most of these oddities now washed out, I can sense the SP straining at the leash to rise on the waves of good news imminent.
The anti fracking fraternity is a collection of individuals, activist groups, professional campaigning organizations with diverse agendas. For the likes Greepeace and FoE the underlying agenda is to move away from fossil fuels completely, for the more vociferous activist groups, you can also throw in anti capitalism, anti big business and social revolution into the mix. And then there are individuals and local groups who don't subscribe to the aforementioned agendas, but who are genuinely concerned about property values, pollution, local disruption etc. And then there are the likes of Crane, who make a fat living out of strirring the pot to create more fear and anxiety. The aim of government, local authorities and energy companies should be to work with local communities to openly and scientifically weigh up all the risks and benefits and counter lies and misinformation put out by some of these groups who are using the debate as a means of pushing their own agendas. The undermentioned link is an example of the level of “respect” that Crane enjoys among some of the groups within the anti fracking fraternity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sF08dIRGbjM But I agree with other posters, Crane is a divertion and is best ignored.
Interesting article in today's Telegraph, by Andrew Critchlow
The headline view is postulating a $20 a barrel oil price, to grab your attention. In actuality it is a clever synapses of the turmoil and power struggle that could unfold over the coming months in that region which could result in oil prices riseing back up to the $100 level. Please note this is my interpretation of the article.
Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look.
While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.