"....with the loss of protection from EFSA regarding these results (17th December, I believe) then they would be open to all anyway."
Why would the data be open to all? To get 13.5 a company has to use unpublished data. Are you saying that EFSA publish the proprietary PXS data after the exclusivity period ends? Aspirin Comparison Human Trials Study. Wasn't that trial after the EFSA submission?
Relative to the fact Under the terms of the Alliance Agreement (AA) and the fact we have to accept the fixed level of overhead deduction before we get any larger share of increase in general revenue from DSM until January 2016 and the fact PXS's share of the revenue this time has increased by 100% in just 4 months, (£4k to £8k) Clearly shows to me, sales/revenue is on the increase and all things being equal, we should see £16k revenue to PXS over the next 4 months; and then £32k, and £64k and even £128k before we get into January 2016 and onwards and upwards. IMHO Note:- All things being equal is based on 100% increase in sales every 4 months, and with 30 plus Fruitflow products now on sale around the globe and DSM and others planning to do a big promotion in 2015, PXS still looks like a good investment to me. .
CB, don't disagree with the disappointment and usual cut and paste. "the decision to publish the Aspirin Comparison Human Trials Study especially in view of the US FDA guidance on low dose aspirin." may be a bit of an exaggeration though, with the loss of protection from EFSA regarding these results (17th December, I believe) then they would be open to all anyway.
Quote "The Company's long-term Alliance Agreement with DSM Nutritional Products for Fruitflow® includes a financial model which is based upon the division of profits between the two partners on an agreed basis, linked to certain revenue targets, following the deduction of the cost of goods and a fixed level of overhead from sales. Under the terms of the Alliance Agreement the fixed level of overhead deduction from sales will decrease from 1 January 2016, which will increase the profit share payable to the Company."
So finally we can expect a significant uplift to our bottom line by 2016.This was for me the missing piece of the jigsaw...one can assume that with increasing cost reductions from new efficiencies in manufacture,growth from existing products and new ones to come that our take will increase.
The next big question is what will the reduction in fixed overhead leave us with in real terms ... we won't know for about 18 months.
Just 2 other points for me:
Some queried my questions on costs?If the costs had not gone up significantly then we would have seen more revenue.Many who queried my line of questioning on this were the same people who were expecting significant revenue growth this time round - it did not come.
My guess is without a major brand owner we are realistically looking at 3-5 years to see meaningful growth from here.
A point well made Bern. Whilst we have talked about the cost of scaling up production and logistics, and argument has flowed about whether it is fully paid off or just a proportion, at last it is made abundantly clear that it isn't. So DSM wanted a higher payback of their investment in the early years, that was the deal. When the AA was negotiated, a deal such as that would seem acceptable to me, a tiny company entering in to a deal with a giant was most probably not in a position to ask for any better. It means that we have the rest of this financial year, and most of the next, on the higher level of deduction, pushing back the prospect of real profits from the current level of sales. As a balance we have the reiteration of the increasing number of new Fruitflow products on the blocks.. Puts paid to Squealer's comment that new brands are drying up. Potential new products need to become reality as next year progresses. I was hoping that the delay was so that we could be told that the latest quarter's income was increased. Not to be, we can but continue to ask for quarterly updates.
Can't lie. I was expecting something between 15 and 20k and said I'd be disappointed if it was less than 10k, so disappointed is what I am.
Two glimmers of light are that the cost of production should come down again in 2015. The other one is a bit more unexpected in that we've been given a bit more info on the AA
"Under the terms of the Alliance Agreement the fixed level of overhead deduction from sales will decrease from 1 January 2016, which will increase the profit share payable to the Company."
I might be clutching at straws here but early 2016 has been mentioned in terms of "being fully funded" so maybe the decrease in fixed overhead is seen by the BoD as being a big contributor to a possible break even ? Plainly we all hope that sales increase before then to get us close to breakeven without that change but it's the first time I recall it being mentioned.
All in all, pretty underwhelmed though.
In addition ...
I can't get excited about DSM making a video and, though the publication of some of our work will be useful long-term, it should really have been done before now.
Short-term, I'm hoping for an expansion of Fruitflow in it's existing areas. Longer-term, any move into a BP area is probably more exciting.
I need to re-read the last annual report in conjunction with this one to really get to terms with it, but that can wait,
I thought I would wait for the "knee-jerks" to have a say before I offered my thoughts but reaction has generally been very subdued so far.
I was grossly over optimistic with my estimate of the six months income and I'm disappointed with only £8k. The full y/e figures for March 2015 will obviously reflect the substantial reduction in costs mentioned many times in the report and this income is going to be very much higher than the £4k for y/e March 2014.
There's a bit of cut and paste in the report but a few things which are worth noting. There was a lot of emphasis, in these interims, on decreasing costs.Also worth noting is the decision to publish the Aspirin Comparison Human Trials Study especially in view of the US FDA guidance on low dose aspirin.
1) The continuing fall in the cost of producing Fruitflow. 2) A strong indication that Provexis is going to see considerable benefits from these reducing costs. 3) Increased media coverage to come with the DSM product video. 4) The reduction in the deduction from sales WEF 1 Jan 2016. 5) Confirmation that the set up phase(costs) for Fruitflow have been concluded. 6) Publication of the aspirin comparision Human trials. 7) The Blood Pressure research collaboration. 8) Tight control on costs.
There's a lot going on but we really need a big name to take up the product.
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