Good point ,...Scotland , if it's a Yes vote , don't become an independent country on the day of the vote . It'll probably be some time in 2016 so they may just let the general election go ahead as planned. No idea to be honest but regardless of that all labour will do is change their policies to suit the situation . Blair's government , in some ways , wasn't all that different from Thatchers . I doubt the Tories will have a free run at it .
Hello jings100. You say "If Scotland vote YES and Labour get in". Would it not be almost impossible for Labour to win the next election if Scotland vote YES as 41 Labour seats and 6 SNP seats would disappear forever. This would leave 602 (649-47) seats to be fought over. Currently the Tories hold 303 seats and Labour 257. Therfore as of April next year (not allowing for the odd bi election) Labour would have 216 sitting MPs and The Tories would have 303. That would mean one huge landslide for Labour to get back into power. In my opinion a YES vote almost guarantees a Torie Government for the foreseeable future. As for the effect on RBS well......
Looking at the charts 300 seems to be about the bottom of the range this year , been expecting it to move to a higher range for a few months now but so far 365 / 375 seems to be the upper limit . Divi's would certainly help but doubt there will be any news this side of the election and possibly nothing until early 2016 .If Scotland vote YES and Labour get in , the situation in Europe worsens , our economy slows down and the situation in the Ukraine and the middle East doesn't improve or indeed any of the above , I'll revise my thinking but at the moment I'll stick with a range between 300 / 400 over the next 18 months but wouldn't be surprised to see it narrowing as you and mailman are suggesting .
Actually, my observation was made without charts but on the basis of watching the movement of the sp over a number of years. Back in early 2013 the range of 320-370 was apparent and despite increased confidence in the UK economy and some good results over the last few months, it seemed to me yesterday that the range was still evident. I suspect that the upper limit is somewhat affected by the lack of a dividend and of information about the timescales for a return to divs. These factors mean that there is a limit to the current price that big investors (those that have the capacity to influence the vector of the sp) will pay, and that limit appears to be around 370. I agree with Mailman that we should gradually see this trading range shift upwards and in fact my post yesterday was more or less a statement that we don't appear to be seeing this shift yet. Perhaps though, we might see the range itself narrow with 370p remaining as the upper limit, but with a greater tendency for the sp to remain above say 330p. As always, interested in people's views.
* "Yes" vote could have severe consequences -Goldman
* Risk of euro-style crisis -Goldman
* Sterling falls to new lows versus dollar (Adds further reaction and detail)
By Sudip Kar-Gupta
LONDON, Sept 3 (Reuters) - A Scottish vote for independence from the United Kingdom this month could have serious consequences for the Scottish and UK economies, Goldman Sachs said in a research note on Wednesday.
Goldman Sachs economist Kevin Daly said that while the Wall Street bank still felt the most likely outcome was for Scotland to vote to stay in the United Kingdom, a surprise victory for the "Yes" campaign to break away would have a drastic impact.
"Opinion polls suggest that the gap between the 'Yes' and the 'No' camps has narrowed but that a 'Yes' vote in favour of independence remains unlikely," Daly wrote in the note.
"In the event of a surprise 'Yes' vote, the near-term consequences for the Scottish economy, and for the UK more broadly, could be severely negative," he added.
STERLING HITS NEW LOWS
The vote takes place on Sept. 18, and Daly said the threat of a break-up would give investors a strong incentive to sell Scottish-based assets and withdraw deposits from Scottish-based banks.
Part-nationalised British bank Lloyds, which owns Bank of Scotland, is considering having its registered office in London rather than Edinburgh should Scots vote for independence, banking industry sources have told Reuters.
Daly added that the Bank of England would be unable to credibly commit to a sterling currency union remaining unbroken in case of a "Yes" vote later this month.
The pound hit a new seven-month trough against the dollar on Wednesday despite some upbeat British data, as investors fretted that Scotland may yet vote to break up the UK.
Daly said uncertainty over whether or not an independent Scotland could keep sterling as its currency could lead to a crisis. He drew a comparison with the euro currency bloc, where weaker and more indebted economies have come under intense financial market pressure.
"The UK government's position is that an independent Scotland would not be able to retain sterling as its currency. Pro-independence campaigners argue that, in the event of a 'Yes' vote, the UK government would quickly change its stance because retaining a monetary union would be 'overwhelmingly' in its interests," said Daly.
"However, in our view, the threat to disband the sterling monetary union with Scotland is credible," he added.
"One of the main lessons from the euro area crisis is that a reasonably high degree of fiscal and/or financial integration is necessary, as a means of effective risk sharing, for a monetary union to work. Without political and fiscal integration, it is difficult to see the rest of the UK agreeing to provide a monetary and financial backstop to Scotland."
I agree we are in the same ball park ... if the range bound situation continues as per the last 2 years...If profits increase to a bigger amount. The range could well be expected to increase slowly upward ...
That said until rate rises happen, profits will be hard to grow as they did before the crisis... so many economy factors affecting so many in different ways...
Too many in the UK population and so few houses .... and a reported increase of 5 million by 2525 to add to the current 65 million... where they will live and get jobs... God Knows .. if that amount of growth happens ... an now reported today ...possible power issues this winter...or the future...
Will stop there .. it is a big subject with many viewpoints...
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