Not quite sure what all this oil glut is about. As in, is it because of a slow down in the world economy, needing less, combined of course with new methods of producing energy? Or is it because of fracking, and the US becoming independent for its own oil?
Who is trying to break who?
Are the U.S trying to break the Russians as they need oil for much of their income to be high.
Or, are the Saudis et al trying to break the U.S shale oil industry, which seems to me impossible, as you cant uninvent new tech, and as soon as they break the current shale oil producers, then surely others will take up the slack once the price rises due to less oil being produced?
Its good news to some extent as it will help reduce debt defaults etc. On the other hand an underpinning of the price based on matching OPEC/NonOPec supply to global demand should make it easier to get a handle on inflation going forward and thereby interest rates. Of course a stable oil price will see higher output an increased drilling activity in the shale regions thereby limiting price upside. Net net should be a positive for the markets as a whole
The agreement is not worth the paper it is written on. OPEC cartel members have a long history of cheating between themselves. Both Iran and Iraq are determined to reach their Pre war 1980 production levels. The only winners of this agreement are the American Shale Drillers and of course one very happy woman from Scotland.
So OPEC cuts production by 1.2m to 32.5m - a cut of 3.5% - but the price goes up by nearly 9% - depite - by some estimates - a global supply glut situation that will last for several months ( and ignoring that other major players - like US shale - will now be able to produce more at more of a profit ).
Even OPEC estimates for Jan -Jun 2017 - was for a 31.7 mb/d to balance supply and demand - so it's not exactly like we have a major shortage of supply going on.
So we now pay these nations - effectively holding the global economy to "ransom" more money for less.
When will the world learn that allowing markets to speculate on the essentials of life is not always a good thing.
Low oil / energy costs have helped many western economies through the recent rough patch.
The only good thing about the price recovery is it will help other domestic producers ( e.g. US shale, UK North Sea ) prosper / survive a little longer.
Not so keen on shale side effects when done badly - but if it helps reduce the economic stanglehold of nations like Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Russia etc on the west - then bring it on.
This just means more costs / more inflation - and unless you work directly in oil - little benefit - to the majority.
I get what you are all saying and agree that it is needed. What ever happens on the dips of the market due to fraudulent behaviour or not will be followed with phrases circumstances beyond our control, and unforeseen etc etc . We all know it's coming so why are we pretending the market is a cleaner place for these stress tests which are all based on hypothetical numbers as well as situations. Bye the way 89-91 was based on the biggest drop I could find in relation to a £120,000.00 house. We all know unless you live in London or at least the Southern half of the country that the average house price bares no resemblance to the true average house price of the average person anyhow, so these figures are incorrect. I guess all I am saying is this could be and more than likely is a load of old tosh as I can't think of one prediction the BOE has gotten right. 2yr ago if I remember correctly Mr C was talking about interest rate rises and perpetual doom last year. And here we are lowest interest rates ever and a thriving economy. If he was my personal accountant I would of had him sacked by now. IMHO. As I keep saying I'm here to learn and am only discussing not getting agitated at all. I do have a good interest in these shares rising so don't misconstrue my discussions for decamping bit that it would have any effect anyhow.
OPEC clinched a deal to curtail oil supply, confounding skeptics as the need to clear a record global crude glut -- and prove the group’s credibility -- brought its first cuts in eight years. Crude rose as much as 8.8 percent in London.
OPEC will reduce output to 32.5 million a day, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh told reporters in Vienna Wednesday. The breakthrough deal showed an apparent acceptance by Saudi Arabia that Iran, as a special case, can still raise production.
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