Thanks. Your first question can perhaps be rewritten as: "can the KRG go until Easter 2017 with no major consolidation in the sector, a delay of three years or more?" or "can Big Oil continue to be marginalised by the NOCs, drill dry holes and watch their Reserves tables go nowhere until Easter 2017?"
The oil price shouldn't be at these current low levels by then, and the KRG must surely have their oil exports on a proper basis by then. I've repeatedly said that a conventional sale of "all of Gulf as it stands today" won't achieve full value, not least because two important formations (the Cretaceous flanks at Shaikan, and the Permian) are not quantified. A partial sale (farm-out) or formation of a Consortium which would include Gulf, or at the least a sale with "future discovery bonus mechanism" would be better than selling the lot today for what one can get.
How to bridge the gap between the current share price and something in excess of Â£5? Quite easy, actually...and I've seen it done. The solution is to do it in stages, like a Moon rocket. Each stage lifts the price, and that forms a platform for the next rise. To get to say Â£6 (and I'm NOT saying that's my target) the final "outbidding bid" could lift it from Â£5 to Â£6. The Â£5 level might be a 60% premium to Â£3 (in other words a conventional premium). Â£3 would be an increase from an RNS issued at say Â£2 that "we have been approached by a major...no guarantee this will lead to a bid", so the usual wording.
So in my purely personal opinion, a share price of about Â£2 is a key stage. Don't forget: that's where it was, before the (apparently leaked) CPR started to take it down, the slide starting in the period prior to publication. Had the price stayed at say Â£2, it would have dropped because of the oil price...to maybe 80p? Genel is potentially a pointer to that. So if Jon can get it to 80p, via CPR and dealing with the appallingly level of investor confidence, he can potentially ride on the coattails of an oil price bounce. Payment of some of the "owings" by the KRG might also make a big difference.
btw I'm looking for an even bigger bounce on another oiler. My family has taken over 0.1% of that company and may buy more...we have also just bought yet more Gulfs. Frankly, I've been more concerned about choosing the best colour for the repaint of my mighty Jensen C-V8 than about Gulf. Will Jon deliver? I think yes.
PAW1, I would disagree. Yes , increased production should invariably see an increase in SP but to say the SP is pegged to just that is far from the truth. 2 years ago we were over £2 and production was half what it is now.
A good CPR will see us above 50p Im sure plus regular payments will build confidence. Once that happens there will be alot more investment/volume and I see no reason why the SP can't head back over £1. This could happen fairly quickly and we could see £1 by Xmas if both a favourable CPR and regular payments. Throw in a takeover/bidding war and an increase of POO to $100; we could even head back up to £4+ ;0)
Words are just words, as DD rightly says, what else would you expect JF to say. I see the 15th October-ish as a key date, when we would expect to see an RNS about the second of the new "regular payments" having been banked. That would give me (and, I believe, the market) confidence that the "regular payments" really are regular and not just a one-off sweetener to "string us along".
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