I agree totally with Therealpukman when they say ,(weds 15.46 this thread, admin read it for yourself before deleting please) that the promised millions are on the way. Why else would we be " gearing up for that research function"
Bern Recent volumes sort of argue against this theory, but could it be that we have seen a very mild selling in to an imminent fundraising?
Trying to ignore the harping on occurring on the other channel. Why is it not possible to accept that those with views will express them, rather than leaping in with pugilistic intent on my every post? I say what I see, that is all.
"... but short term the funding requirement is a mild concern"
Yes, I'm slightly surprised that the announcement of the work didn't come with a drawdown attached to it. There was 500k in the bank last time the numbers were published. It would be nice to think that the initial work could be met from existing funds but the RNS doesn't give us any hints on that, Doubtless, time will tell and a lot will depend on how much money comes in from DSM over the next couple of years.
In an ideal world, income from Fruitflow would be used to find the new research and there'd be no dilution, but that's probably a tad hopeful.
Overall, it's excellent news though. It's a long way off being potentially sold as a natural "treatment" for pre-hypertensive and mildy hypertensive folk, but, if it happens, i think it's an easier sell to both consumers and investors. I'm sure lots of us have been following Duttaroy's work with both Kiwi and FF wrt BP and wondered where it would end up, now we know.
I must admit I did wonder what he was up to, and whether he'd primarily end up as a competitor, so it's good to have him, and Inven2, tied in to Provexis in this way.
Only thing that seems to have changed here with the statements ,is that Buck States ' long term share holder value' Moon had the ' short ,medium and long term share holder value ' in his bull ! Another carrot. As an ' investor ' never seen any value .
In stating UK supermarkets, are you not overlooking where Sirco is currently available? Your analysis is welcome as far as I'm concerned, it is what we should be doing. Elsewhere, there appears to be some denial going on. Langers and Optiflow didnt get promoted my a**e ! You are dead right that the BoD do not forecast a p[rofit in 14/15. To go from £4k to over £250k would be one hell of a scale up. However, for three quarters of that period the beneit of reduced production costs will weigh in our favour, as will the extra brands and the large expansion of Sirco sales territories. If MLM proves to be effective then another chunk gets thrown in to the pot. We know already that volumes within 10 months of launch caused some surplus to slosh out of the pot. The pot is still the same size, so coninuing to throw more in ..... Well, you get the analogy.
re "So, we have a range between GBP 4 - 9 million wholesale"
No, not really. If you can provide some evidence that Sirco retail sales are at or above 18 million / annum then I'll happily concede on this one though. Are you able to do that ?
Re "this assumes 1,000 stores/ including portal contribution"
I'll be honest, I'm not sure how many stores Sirco is currently available in. The website at http://www.sircoheart.com/where-you-can-buy-sirco/ says it's in 350 Sainsburys stores and 150 Waitrose but that might have grown since then. I'd guess it'd be 600 tops though. At 3 million units, that'd still be 500 units per year per store. Not huge amounts admittedly
To put that in context, the same link shows Copella sales at 39m, so Sirco roughly 10% of Copella ? Sounds about right doesn't it ?
re "I am pretty sure receipts to PXS (before DSM) hit GBP 70k"
If that's right then the 70k would be sales price and not profit, trebling the number makes no sense.
Some of the products on sale will almost certainly involve Fruitflow sales of pretty much the same volume as Sirco. As more products come online and cost of goods comes down there'll be a virtuous circle. The path to breakeven is fairly easy to see, as is the path to profitability, but your figues need a dose of reality applying to them.
Anyway, results due out in December. What revenues do you expect to see then ? Give us an upper and lower bound on your expectations.
Seeing further forward than that is difficult, so we can both wait till we see the numbers to come up with estimates for the Full Year.
More generally, the BoD have told us to expect a loss this year. If in the Interims, they change their advice on that, then the more positive posters will be able to puff their chests out with pride. I think it's more realistic to expect a loss this year, and possibly next year as well, but time will tell.
Just in case the main qu's got lost in that wall of text, to recap :-
1. Can you provide evidence that Sirco ( retail ) sales are 18 million + and 2. What revenue are you expecting in the Interims ?
Lets be honest, we're probably a long way from seeing income in the tens of millions of pounds. We've seen this stock ramped before, even quite recently ( wherefore art thou Del ? ) and all it does is attract short-termers. If someone is painting what I see as an overly glossy picture then I'll challenge that in much the same way as I'd challenge an overly negative picture.
A two week lead time doesn't look right if it was just that Auravita had forgotten to order Sirco. I can understand MM prioritising back up stocks for the supermarkets as they penalise suppliers for empty shelves, but it does seem that MM are getting their logistics in a twist. First time I have seen that site, makes me wonder just how many routes to market Sirco now has. The "discussion" about volume of sales should IMHO, continue without allegations of ramping. Could Sirco sales have quite easily doubled their volume through the launches in other countries this year ? It seems feasible given the TV coverage in Austria/Germany. Looking at the target population compared to previous years the such growth figures are modest. The US has always been seen as a massive potential target for Fruitflow. That too should be seeing strong growth as Langers and Bricker are active promoters.. Yes indeed there are a few of the current list where volume expectations wouldn't match those of the key brands, but even in sports supplements the market is only at the very start of being penetrated.
Bark all you like Bern, the volume potential is there alright.
So, we have a range between GBP 4 - 9 million wholesale and doses pa 12 million to 45 million. I must correct my original figure to 36.5 million doses as l had assumed 5 servings per carton.
So, on 12 million doses the average sales per outlet/ internet portal would equate to 8 cartons per day (this assumes 1,000 stores/ including portal contribution). Feels a low number for the larger names???
I am pretty sure receipts to PXS (before DSM) hit GBP 70k which was certainly before the the 300% increase - so this would now equate to GBP 210,000.
You made a very valid point on unit return for the syrup version being less than for FF2. If substituted with FF2 this would then equate to GBP 630,000. Point being to now compare Sirco demand/ unit return in the FF2 arena.
I agree by taking the average of 36 products is not too scientific but is the only logical gauge based on the law of averages and a wider geographical distribution of the new products. Again, my point was to provide a framework.
This share can only be influenced at City boy level so l can assure you l have no intention to ramp. I am a long term holder expecting hopefully to take nice dividends in the next 3 to 5 years and perhaps some profits.
Again, thanks for the constructive input. Much appreciated.
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