for once in my investing life I bought shares the day before an rns. then I saw the rise this morning and got all excited. despite all of that the sp drops. still, there's time for people to see the light of day over the next week or so and reward my foresight/good fortune with big buys of their own GLA
you say it doesnt make sense doing certain things unless he knew the share price would increase sometime soon. lets be honest here guys what has tim done in the last 5 years ive been in this share that makes sense? absolutley nothing he has ever done in recent times has been good for share holders or the company. FACT
I like your thinking. A grant in my opinion would be a probability but to how much is anybodies guess. Tim for sure is the only one who knows what is going on. I believe ( and correct me if I am wrong) that not only SAR but Michelle Garrett will also be attending a conference towards the end of the year. So perhaps then things will fall into place shortly afterwards. As you stated Sareum are not in control of CHK1. News should be forthcoming with regards to Aurora FLT +3 and the recent update regarding TYK2. So surely within the next 6 to 8 months there ought to be a significant movement upwards in the SP. Have added recently in the dips and I am still well down, but I see it as a wating game. Wishing you all the best in your investments! Regards
Tim raised £350k cash from the last placing which is enough for working capital to see them through to Q3 2015. He also arranged a 200k swap which will bring in cash each month for 12 months. The return on this is dependant on the share price.
The only potential expense above normal cash burn is the £1.3m payment for CHK1 trials. My guess is that we will get grant funding to cover this and possible more if / when it goes to phase 2. If I'm right, it will be a massive boost. Not only would it take away the financial risk but it would also increase the return from the swap (and remember, REM made a 10 fold return on their swap, so this could end up being material).
If you were Tim and you knew that there was a chance of having to raise £1.3m through a placing, why would you raise some funds before then (but not enough to cover the whole amount and which wasn't needed at the time) and then gamble £200k when you knew the SP would go down as a result of the placing? It just doesn't make sense. Unless Tim knows (or highly suspects) that something will happen over the next few months that will increase the SP.
I think something is going on behind the scenes. I don't think its a licencing deal (as that would provide the funds so no need for the swap). So I think a grant is a possibility and Tim is chairing the meeting at OnHelix soon with two of the biggest providers of this sort of funding. Another possibility is good news from China which lifts the SP and the swap could return enough to cover SARs costs for going into UK trials, but I suspect that it might be too early for that, as we will always be one or two steps behind HMU..
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