Early Sept to hit min $50m cash rather than run out of cash totally in case anyone thought i'd gone bonkers with my maths. I keep wondering (in current OP and political environment in the region) whether it is the comments about big names running the rule over us in the data room that is keep the price from collapsing given the ultra precarious cash position. It is a handy thing to keep re-iterating if you know there is a good chance of a placing needed in the next 6 weeks or so if you don't get paid (not that i am suggesting at this stage that we won't continue to be drip-fed the odd $10m per month to meet the reduced and reducing OpEx and CapEx needs). It's just for me that the Board need to articulate what it sees as the options for meeting the October bond coupons as it is clear current local oil sales is not certain to meet that outgo plus regular monthly committments.
For me immediate key is when will the Swami and JBJ press the button to put the next placing into motion? We had cash of $72.1m as at 9/7 and with burn of about $10.5m per month, that will run out by about the end of the first week of September or thereabouts absent any further payments. Of course, still in the period where the next payment might not be quite due (we got $9.3m total in first week of July for oil sales in June), but things will get very precarious if we don't receive anything further by end of next week at the latest. Absent a farm-out / partial sale / full sale and the continued tightness of the KRG to pay-up at least some of what it owes, its hard to believe the button won't need to be pressed on the placing to cover the Oct coupon on the bonds. Still generally OK that this will work out eventually but this is really white knuckle ride stuff! Given what is happeneing elsewhere, particularly Genel, am quite heartened we are holding 30p at the moment.
go back on AIM, as the main market while just as crooked, doesnt have the POSITIVE swings that Aim does ?
On reflection, I hope that the people (the cause) behind this pathetic manipulation of this sp, KNOWING they have given GKP an Oil field with the potential to change "everyone involved" lives, for the better, stop being so bloody selfish and help GKP (and others recover) that or I hope Iraq goes to rack and ruin and they suffer as much as we have.... Corrupt to the back teeth.... maybe they need to be "extracted".... now waiting for a new BB under the name of Sweeny Todd:) Oh I fogot he was the CEO, who also put himself first, and so the PI's !!! Never again after this concludes... !
do not have long to sort payments out and not just 5-10mln as shareholders in various oilers will revolt as their companies prop up a region whose predicament could get progressively a lot worse. Can see big boys waiting to see outcome of any response from Baghdad (so far very subdued) NOC might be the option?
To my untrained ear the comments about data room suggest that some majors are interested. However they are playing the political and financial worry cards to suggest they know worth but right now can only pay this X amount whilst this goes on. GKP are coming back and saying, you know this is short term and if you want it pay the price or lose out, we will farm out instead. Anyone surprised? They should not be. This is normal business negotiations . Now i would suggest Chevron and Exxon have a better idea what the USA actually wants from Iraq and what would be excepted. To some extent those two companies have huge influence on USA policy. So i do not think we should fear farm out or a sale of company, one just brings an end game quicker, one can even bring more value long term. What worries mr is the silence from Baghdad, it makes me wonder what are they up to. Who are they making deals with to cause us problems? Turkey? The positive is, that as far as i am aware we are selling oil locally and oil is getting exported in huge amounts independently. Which means the KRG will receive money. hopefully so will oil companies. KRG have made their bed now, they have to pay the oil companies soon or oil companies will slow production and then Kurdistan will be in real financial trouble. Genel and others like us are all needing payments and the charitable attitude of waiting and not getting paid adequately is slowly running thin. The companies have been patient and understanding in this, in the understanding that it would lead to payments within months. time is slowly running out and if i was KRG i would stop biting the hand that feeds them. Just may be will see something change before Autumn as i can not see it going this direction much longer.
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