Question for the AgM unless someone knows the answer is the new pipeline exclusively for our use or will it be shared with another producer. I only ask as I think its strange for petrotrin to provide it for free. Yes they want our oil but we also want to sell it so you,d have thought the costs would be shared.
Hi All, Especially EBD, If you have been reading a lot of stuff in the last 12 hours, you now know the reason I think 01-01-16 might be important. Take off 30 days of continuous production. Then maybe repeat for a wee bit of maintenance etc. You are now starting to get close to 01-10-15, the start of Q4.
Also, the one person that could have answered the question I,ve been looking for, Mr Oats has left us, question – how long after we have triggered the payment do we have to make the payment, I have been searching deep in me memory banks, Ah, its really grubby in there, I have a feeling that its 90 days but can,t find it in any of the r.n.s. Got the one which says about payments.
$2 mill is a lot of xtra production @ $16 nett back, As far as I am aware, we havn’t got the LACT or new pipe online yet.
If all can be tweaked & fine tuned timewise, then the co can have its cake & eat it. & Shove the payment into next years accounts.
What we don’t know is the capacity in a 24 hour period of the old line with the new pumps, which unless the old pumps were literally falling apart won.t give us a lot more as you can only up the pressure so far, as frictional loss increases with pressure. You can almost hear Scotty calling out, She canny take it capt'n - she's gonna blo. To move significantly more volume you need bigger/more pipes.
Also it is Petrotrins pipeline so they will tell us the max pressure we can use. I assume that the line must be tested periodically and has a safe working limit due to H & S, & environmental concerns.
I believe we were told something like, that the current total of 2000 + 750 tanks can be cleared once per day.
The new pumps are there to feed the new pipeline system when its online, but only the company know all the technical details, ie; no of pumps & configuration, daily outputs, we were never told how long it takes to actually empty the sales tank & how much dead time per day exits, this is where the new 5000 bpd sales tank may come into its own..
I do know a bit about pumps & hydraulics but am sadly lacking in the speciality of pipelines, but it is a fact that only so much stuff will go through a pipe of particular size in a given period of time.
Enjoy the AGM, you might get some answers, IMO Q4 is gonna be a beauty, Q3 ? All IMO of course, Just a thought, not a prediction. Captain Ritson has plenty of choices IMO
I agree with the 'It's impossible not to pay the final payment' BUT it can be delayed as NR is doing. Pad 4 is completed and drilled and there are extended tests to perform. This delays the output whilst pad 5 is being drilled, 1st well of pad 5 is due to TD next week, well 2 by mid July etc.... So pad 5 could be online by end of August, early Sept.
Pad 4 results can pump within 2 weeks, choked back, then rework other wells to keep production below 2000BOPD. Then the payment is only due after 30 consecutive days of 2000BOPD.
So in reality delay and choke pad 4 until end of July/August. Get flows and production from pad 5 in September and LGO could jump at this point to 4000BOPD - Just when the 5000 BO storage tank is ready as well. Just when the larger pipe is completed.
It is all pointing to Sept. There is also time before year end for either pad 6 and 7 or a drill phase for GS. GS could produce 10 wells by year end and boost the oil right up to the 12,000 BOPD.
Hamlette, this later article suggest a sell for a winter lull. My understanding is that pads will be readied before the rains come, allowing continuous drilling throughout the year. Did I get that wrong? Jim.
Dense - the 3,750 bopd maximum flow capability was posted on here as an email reply from NR to a posters question. He said that if everything falls into place then 3750 is the maximum. We are close to knowing now so just a matter of wait and see but the facts are we are drilling faster, which means cheaper and producing more oil and knowing that there is far more oil here than we thought 12 months ago and I don't think anybody can seriously argue we won't be saying the same in another 12 months and in another 12 months after that. We might all want to get rich quick but we might have to settle for getting rich slow but at the current rate of growth in both the SP and production from 12 months ago then another couple of years isn't too long to wait is it?
It's impossible to see how Pad 4 cannot trigger the final payment. We know from the recent award that LGO got that production from the Goudron field was nearly 2,000 bopd in April. I would expect subsequent recompletions to have maintained that output, indeed didn't the original RNS announcing the recompletions programme say it would restore output to around 2,000? It obviously has. So if we add on three new wells then it will exceed 2,000 without any doubt whatsoever. I am now surprised by the comment attributed to NR some weeks ago that Pad 4 would not do that but perhaps that was before the infrastructure upgrades we have heard of.
Before you assume I have excessive expectations of these three wells let me say that I do not expect any to come close to 1,000 bopd. That well was exceptional and we know that was due to the large amount of gas in that area. There are no indications that gas is an issue here so my expectation is much lower. I think that will be 'standard' 350's rapidly declining to 250 or less. Hence my expectation that we hit the pre-reinforcement 2,750ish limit with Pad 4 + recompletions. If any were exceptional then they would be choked back to preserve their longevity. Pad 5 should then add another 1.000 as there are 4 wells here.
Anything less than this the market will view as a disappointment in the short to medium term.
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