Given the number of new promotions of PFD products at all the supermarkets that appeared at the end of september. Premier foods must have sold very high volumes leading to end of September. Gavin Darby is a sharp operator knowing the supermarkets needs these promotion, so would have negotiated much higher volumes to ensure his 3rd quarter number are ahead of expectation. This is my theory. Also as Kerry Group is based in Ireland, he would have a very good story to tell about international growth, Gavin mentioned he hired 4 people in dublin to re-establish an Ireland office at the 6 month interim conference call. This is me trying to convince myself that they is light at the end of the tunnel. Would love to get views from others,
If the current share price was 34p, Then you will need to purchase 20386 shares at a cost of 6931 pounds. You total number of shares will then be would then be 27326, with overall cost of 13664 pounds ( you existing shares would have cost 6732.8 pounds) . This is not taking into account dealing cost. If the current price is different then you'll need to use the algorithm I provided with calculator.
This share has been a right roller coaster for 18 months and more ....and obviously the mess the supermarkets are in are not helping but ....supermarkets are running at huge profits and are in a dominating position of being market leaders in the high street with all expansion costs already paid ...they are getting pressured from low quality discounters ......But FFS ....this share is getting hammered beyond belief ...
market cap is less than 2 times forecasted ebitda, so either there is about to be a profit warning, if not, then it is just fear driving this stock down, helped by market makers.
As the company is a perennial market disappointer, there is no trust in the company's optimism, so share price will only recover when black and white evidence of a turn-around is provided. 3rd quarter results on the 23rd oct are at the same day as tesco, just hope the company has some success to report, else it could be more painful months ahead.
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