not posted for a year. back time. feeling we are about to rocket. Pfizer/ AZN uncertainty interesting. can see a bit more research money and attention coming our way (ICR/ CRT etc) pending the dust settling.
The quiet period won't last but always nice to discuss the possibilities.
50sBoy. Anything is possible with funding but if someone were to pay SARs share, they would want something in return.
And just noticed this. Not SAR specific but nice background on the oncology sector, ALL (which is one of the leukaemias Aurora FLT3 is going after), immunotherapy (not measles unfortunately) but some very nice, big numbers.
We all know its high risk, but this shows what some of the rewards could be
Hopkirk Evening good to see a chatty bb - my point entirely if things are looking positive then Sar should be saying we have the "cake" who wants a bite because we are adding a layer, unless TM has locked into a "rolling contract", which will be somewhat disappointing if the product is improving and the finance from outside isn't.
Anyway, as you said lots of possibilities.......and so far science has been good!!
I confess i know very little as to raising funds in these situations, but i would think this was all through well through before arriving where we are today. Hopkirk, can't remember if you corrected me on this before, but isn't it possible that a backer may pay what ever is needed on behalf of Sar, or is that not possible........my thoughts only
The SEDA is just a smaller version of a placing. Same impact (dilution / shares placed at a discount) but it has a maximum amount that can be drawn down in a given period. So for large cash calls, its got to be a placing but its good for working capital purposes (until the revenue starts to roll in!).
The cash burn rate (from memory) has been fairly static at about 50k to 55k a month for the past couple of years. The placing RNS said this was enough to cover normal requirements (the 800k ws an exceptional one off requirement) and would last up to about early 2015. But it did say something about this not covering any potential "further financial commitments" relating to CHK1. Now this could be an expanded pre clinical dwvelopment involving MV-NIS or the cost of Phase1.
And Tim has seemed to draw down (SEDA or placings) when there has been about 3 to 4 months cash left in the bank in the past.
I believe you need to show that you have the funds needed to conduct the trials before approval is granted. My guess is that if a placing is needed it isn't imminent - probably from September onwards at a guess, so still time for something else to happen.
Hi. True. Maybe BACIT will pay the lions share reducing SARs fundraising requirements but my suspicion is that its all equal and any reduction of payments at this stage might result in a smaller share of any deal for CHK1 in the future. SAR could have walked away at the BACIT / CPF deal stage but decided to stay on and pay the 800k and I suspect the payments will be equal in return for equal rewards.
Aurora + FLT3 is a different story. Both are due to start at the end of this year / early next year but from the timescales I've read, it takes much longer for Chinese approval. So I would expect news on this front before CHK1. That should lift the share price too, helping with any possible funding requirements (if needed).
There are lots of possibilities. It will only take one to either get a deal or make it to human trials for the future to look much brighter. And lets not forget, its the science that will be the deciding factor and so far all of the science over the last few years had been good.
Hi Hopkirk as always a balanced resume - my only comment being whilst I accept Sar are equal in partnership they have the "goose" that hopefully is the "golden egg" so the next round of funding I would like to see BACIT take more of a role in raising funds that's a benefit for all - obviously depends on how confident all 3 partners are going into Phase 1 trails, which in itself should lift sp
....and would love to hear update from China......
Hi. There are still lots of unknowns. If CHK1 gets to Phase 1 trials (not guaranteed but no news is good news at this point), the price should go up as it will a) increase the chances of a deal and b) make the value of that deal more rewarding.
But then there is the question of actually funding the trials. CHK1 will probably cost SAR 1.3m (if they pay the same as BACIT which seems logical to me).
So although applying for trials and then trials starting will be a massive boost for SAR, it opens up more doubt about financing. IMO this is what is keeping it low at the moment - If CHK1 gets to trials, there could be another big placing to raise the cash which could push the SP down to 0.3p. It would be good for the company (in a strange way as it needs to happen and without it the value would go down anyway) but bad for existing shareholders in the short term.
Being more optimistic, the TYK2 results are due soon and Tim is back in San Diego for the recently added Bio International event. Maybe this is a coincidence. Maybe just my wishful thinking. But an early stage deal on this takes away the financing problem.
But until there is more clarity, the questions remain and as long as there is doubt, the price will be low.
So my main questions on CHK1 are: 1. Will trials start (I.e. did pre clinical go ok) 2. How will they be funded 3. What combinations of treatment will be included as this will give us a more acurate idea on just how 'broadly applicable' CHK1 can be.
Fortunately the answers to all of these should be known in 3 to 6 months.
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