Mikemike very relevant but over time not now. The only thing of relevance now is the rate of shale oil bankruptcies which should peak over the next two months. Then the Saudis will then turn the taps down.
Maybe I did not read this article slowly enough. No where did I see that demand has forced supply so hard because there are more people on the planet who want energy than ever before. Supply has got a temporary edge as more people use at a lower rate and that rate will grow.
Example China has a population 8 times that of the USA, yet the USA has 8 times more cars on the road than China. Will supply cover growing demand as fast as that? India a similar equation with variable at 6 not 8.
Additionally the easier to get at oil is history as are the big finds. Now it appears it is hard to get at and very expensive.
Not sure I saw any variables in that article just a series of historical constants. Interesting in themselves but are they relevant now?
This sp is becoming as straight as one of Ben Fogl's oars. Didn't get my 23p but it didn't visit 19p either. Oil is stabilizing and forward rates improving. Some big options expiring too, can see this heading up again soon. Good times. A bonzer weekend to all in the parish.
CNN just released report from IEA suggesting oil price will rise Q4 this year. Go to - http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/2015/january/IEAreleases- oil-market-report-for-January.html. My own OPEC soundings suggest it will likely be earlier in Q3 but a lot depends on US shale oil bankruptcies which are expected to peak in May pre maturity of drillers high yield bonds which now form a very large proportion of US bank loans. At worst a lot of US banks especially the big ones will be asking the Fed for another bail out. Not as bad as the mortgage loans perhaps but bad enough. They've done it again. !!
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