In fact we rose from an even lower share price of around 0.0075p post MOG court case last year to LGO's 52 weeks high of 6.95p at the end of September 2014. The share price rose over the course of 8 months and last year LGO was the top riser on aim with a 400% rise - lets hope we can build on that this year.
The point to remember is that the share price increased as production from pad 1-3 were well in excess of expectations, NR was very conservative with the no's. The collapse in the oil price form the highs of around $107 last June to lows of $44 at the start of 2015 has contributed to the collapse of the share price amongst other things. We are now building on that an being full funding for 2015 and net backs increasing with an increasing WTI our share price in on the up.
Onceatrader gave a very good summary in response to a similar question I asked on Tuesday. Here was his response:
Pad 4 wells will be individually completed and RNS'ed, pretty similar to previous pads. The completions are simple, and I would not be surprised to see a quicker completion done then before, practice makes perfect, and the work force are now very well versed in the process. The initial time-line is three days per well, so if the drilling is completed in the first week of June, we should see the RNS for flow completions start a few days later for each well, if we are fast then we could see two completions done in the week starting the 8th June and the final one a week later. All in all I expect Pad 4 to be pumping oil by the middle of June.
As this process of completion is working, we will still be drilling on Pad 5, therefore it is possible to see two wells drilled and reported on Pad 5 in June, this is on top of the completion RNS's, so news will start to accelerate. I have Pad 5 to be completed for drilling around the first week of August, with a similar path of completions for the four wells, and to give us some plus or minus on times, perhaps Pad 5 pumping oil before the end of August would be a good estimate.
Pad 6 to start drilling at the beginning of September, would then be the bonus for the year, with five wells on Pad 6, we could just about see out the drilling on the pad be Christmas, with completions in the early part of January.
LACT is not critical to Pad 4, as the pipeline will have already been upgraded and connected by then, but I would think we will need it before August, along with the sales tank. It could be fitted by June, but I would give it a few more weeks more, we all know how slow the authorities are on the Island.
Re-completions will be announced all year, I do not see them being individually announced, more that they will accompany Spud or TD RNS for new wells, or even flow rate RNS's.
I suppose as a rule of thumb, we are looking at a RNS for TD of wells twice a month, give or take, with completion and flow rates over lapping as they come on. Plenty of news due and in quick succession.
Finally the FDP and CPR, it will be in June IMHO, and will be at the most unexpected time. It will be a RNS on its own, and to my mind, it will be the biggest RNS of them all. We must not underestimate the implications of a large upgrade to all reserves, in particular to the P1 and P2 reserves.
None of the above is priced in at the moment, that is fine, because we are priced on current production, and we all know that is about to be increased exponentially from this point on.
Spain and Cedros are in there for news somewhere. Spain should be having its extension applied for this month I believe.
Keep in mind one other trigger for news, the next upcoming tender for onshore fields is about to start, with at least three fields up for tender that will suit LGO, is NR in Trinidad to review these fiel
for drilling campaign with expected dates for Pad 3 wells coming into production; pad 4 wells etc. I have week of June 22 for pad 3 all wells online. 12 recompleted wells week of June 22 – all online CPR? who knows with this one but I kind of think around the same time.
Fool article published yesterday - sorry if its already been posted....
LGO Energy (LSE: LGO) and BowLeven (LSE: BLVN) are rising, with their shares up 9% and 5%, respectively, at the time of writing. Their recent performances are encouraging, too — but which one should you choose to if you want to make a bundle?
Is LGO The One? There hasn’t been anything major to report since 30 April, when LGO issued its latest “Goudron Drilling and Field Update“, which didn’t add much to the investment case.
The shares have appreciated by about 20% since, and investors are seemingly attracted to LGO ahead of its trading update for 2014, which is expected at the end of May. No news would be bad news this time around, and that’s a risk that would-be investors ought to consider. Moreover, trading volumes remain rather low.
The stock is in recovery mode, but is still down 33% on the year to date. What appears certain is that if concrete, positive news about its Goudron field in Trinidad emerges in the next few quarters, LGO could almost certainly end the year in positive territory. After all, LGO has funding options, although one of the biggest mid-term risks into 2016/2017 is represented by dilution risk — LGO may have to turn to its shareholders to raise fresh funds if findings at its Goudron field do not meet expectations.
What You’d Be Buying There’s time, though.
It’s worth considering that even though LGO had accumulated losses of £25m on revenues of £17m between 2009 and 2013, in the first quarter it announced that its subsidiary Goudron E&P Limited had managed to raise a $25m pre-paid oil swap facility via BNP Paribas.
If you invest now at 2.87p a share, where LGO currently trades, you should consider that it traded above 6p at around the end of September. That post-crisis record valuation came only a few days before LGO reported a trading update, according to which “Goudron would remain its focus in 2014,” while “other elements” of its portfolio had “significant untapped potential”.
In fairness, not many elements have pointed to rapid growth and meaningful progress since, I’d argue. For the record, LGO hit a 52-week low of 1.02p on 15 May 2014.
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