Well over four years ago this was posted on iraq-business news:
Gulf Keystone a Takeover Target?
Posted on 01 September 2010. Tags: Gulf Keystone, Shaikan-1, takeover
Speculation that Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP), which has significant operations in Iraqi Kurdistan, will become a takeover target continues today, following a report from small-cap broker Daniel Stewart & Co.
Following an analyst field trip to the Kurdistan region of Northern Iraq, the broker’s oil and gas expert Richard Nolan said the company had “astonishing reserve potential”.
Nolan highlighted that the size of the Shaikan discovery (4.2 billion barrel mean resource) has been a ‘well known theme’ and ongoing drilling could expand the resource further.
According to Nolan, the potential to add 500 million barrels from two shallow zones – which would otherwise represent a significant find all by itself – shows the “sheer scale” of the Shaikan discovery.
Crucially, further drilling may provide a substantial increase to the Shaikan resource, to between 18bn and 20bn barrels – should the company determine an oil/water contact point at 2,230m – a level suggested by pressure data.
Nolan estimates that the Shaikan-2 well will target the oil-water contact point in Q1 2011, and provide more clarity on this aspect of the analyst’s investment thesis.
“A similar analysis across all of the blocks could see resources of 60bnbbl or more and with a recovery rate of about 30%.”
He added: “Gulf Keystone could be sitting on a giant on an equal footing to the Kirkuk field which has been producing for more than seventy years and still flows at 400,000 – 500,000b/d … Any company with Gulf Keystone’s size of potential reserves will surely appear on the acquisition radar of many NOC’s [National Oil Companies] and IOC’s [International Oil Companies].”
That said, Nolan described the Gulf Keystone’s investment case as ‘a race against time’, with the analyst highlighting a need to accelerate drilling.
Nolan emphasised that major IOCs and NOCs have had reserve replacement issues for several years. According to Nolan, Gulf Keystone can maximise value by proving up resources on its other blocks, before it becomes a bid target.
“At present Gulf Keystone has good information on Shaikan. They could make a compelling argument to any prospective buyer to pay for those assets … It would be a more difficult discussion for the other blocks”.
[If] Gulf Keystone becomes a target, then they should be doing as much as possible to prove their resources, especially drilling.”
The analyst believes it is “highly probable” that a new rig will be secured on a short-term contract to accelerate drilling. “To make up for lost time and to increase value, getting the rig now makes a lot of sense els
But by then everyone else would be on the same bandwagon!
It was the CPR that knocked the share price down, not ISIS. That's clear from the chart. So you're linking two real events (reduced sp, and ISIS) together and implying a causal link. Because that isn't a causal link, eradicating ISIS surely wouldn't have the effect you hope for.
as i see it ihave been waiting to buy in again here and genel,but wont until isis is sorted out for good. many investers and probably institutions feel the same. theres nothing wrong with these companies in fact they have done remarkably well. they must get rid of isis.
Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look.
While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.