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Max Petrol Share Chat (MXP)



Share Price: 0.16Bid: 0.00Ask: 0.00Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Max Petrol
Spread: 0.00Spread as %: 0.00%Open: 0.16High: 0.00Low: 0.00Yesterday’s Close: 0.16



Share Discussion for Max Petrol (MXP)


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TheRobster
Posts: 3,815
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:1.40
West
12 Jun '14
I'll let you know how the short goes. Still confident it'll retrace towards 1p. ;-)
 
mannnan
Posts: 23,901
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:1.40
RE: Fair value
12 Jun '14
Max Petroleum said as at 31 March 2014 it was estimated the group had 9.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) in proved and probable (2P) reserves with an after-tax net present value discounted at 10% (PV10) of $184m.

This is an increase of 11% from 8.6 mmboe as at 30 September 2013, with a PV10 of $140 million, and a decrease of 14% from 10.9 mmboe as at 31 March 2013, with a PV10 of $184m.

The data was compiled by Ryder Scott Company, which estimated the group's total proved, probable and possible (3P) reserves increased 7% to 10.4 mmboe as at 31 March 2014, with a PV10 of $197m, from total 3P reserves of 9.7 mmboe as at 30 September 2013, with a PV10 of $157m.
Drainboy
Posts: 110
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:1.40
View Thread (7)
RE: Fair value
12 Jun '14
Yep, longer term the cost cutting will work its magic. It'll just take time.

As far as I'm aware, they've made the first debt repayments or, at least, they haven't RNS'd that they've missed them. Hard to know. Max don't like to be transparent all of (or much of) the time.

Reserves went down after the New Year Horror of a reserves "upgrade" but are now clawing their way back up. I imagine it will be an upwards (ish) trend or at least enough to offset production for now. If that can continue for the next two to three years, then there's value here.
West11
Posts: 3,830
Answer
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:1.40
TheRobster
12 Jun '14
Medium trend going forward!!!!

Given my use of the terms, "trend reversal" and "multi year" lows, though forward looking was implicit, clearly not in your case... Too much afternoon booze?

How is your short position? Best cover tomorrow, oil sector is just getting started on a major bullish stage..
TheRobster
Posts: 3,815
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:1.40
West11
12 Jun '14
"Medium term trend" been a two-day spike based on not a lot, hey? ;-) Look at the genuine medium term trend (last few months). It's down down down all the way. :p
West11
Posts: 3,830
Observation
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:1.40
Iraq
12 Jun '14
US market bidding up oil stocks big time as NYMEX and Brent surge....

Today was profit taking after a very strong bounce off multi year lows.....not surprised ..

As evidenced by the deracamp on this board, human nature being what it is, many long term holders since 26, 28p etc are deeply bitter, sceptical and some will sell into any rises....

This is all to be expected in a long term trend reversal..

Too many positive turn around fundamentals against a macro back drop that has turned bullish on the entire sector....

Trend is your friend and IMO Medium term trend is back to 4p....
the_shareminator
Posts: 9,262
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:1.40
View Thread (7)
RE: Fair value
12 Jun '14
Thanks for clarifying those points. Agree with your reasoning regarding BOD pay offs and the benefit therefore being realised in 12 months and every year thereafter.

As you say approximate figures, similar outcomes

I see, that would make sense if indeed the export cost was averaged across all barrels. Managed to get around that variable resulting in similar cash-flow figure.

I do believe production can average higher than 4,500 bopd in the coming year. If FFD is granted for additional wells (highly likely) margins and cash-flow increase some.

You raise a good point regarding the debt. Any sign of stalling or deferring repayments will be a bad indication. Have MXP begun repaying debt since Interims?

Hard to gauge market value after results. Clearly there was enough support to warrant a near 2p valuation for a day or so but it may be a while yet before we see that sort of confidence again.

ps. Are reserves increasing? It looks like y-o-y they are down but since September they have been increasing again with the majority of new reserves booked at Sagiz West.
mannnan
Posts: 23,901
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:1.36
p.s
12 Jun '14
only 3 share on my watch list showing blue .rest of them red
mannnan
Posts: 23,901
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:1.36
Top of the fallers chart..
12 Jun '14
if it rise then we want top of the rise chart .ha ha ha .........but nothing is strange .now a days people sell on news ..we will be back up
maybeoneday
Posts: 377
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:1.38
Still falling.
12 Jun '14
Top of the fallers chart..





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