Hi Antelope-At last something to discuss.Yes,I do think you are being a bit pessimistic here.In view of the fact that we are told we have lots of customers waiting and so few free float shares available I believe this will push the price beyond 20p when contracts are signed.The 52 week high has been 11p without EC accreditation etc.Current P/E is 24 so I think 10 is low.Merchant Securities re-iterated on 30/9 that they believe current share price should be 47p.
More on capacity... just because we average an order a month doesn't mean we have to build one a month. I imagine components will be batch manufactured, and rapid multiple installations take place in bursts.
I'm sure there are several possible business models, but yes, these numbers assume outright sale. As for capacity, if we can't build one a month, we shouldn't be in business, although it may take a little while to get up to speed I imagine.
I really am just pulling numbers out of the air. The p/e could be higher [10 is low] and margins may be greater, for all I know. But I'd have thought these would be suitably 'reasonable' numbers, probably on the pessimistic side. Also, orders are unlikely to come in at one a month.. so this sort of SP maybe the case during H1 2014...
I believe the large units sell for 5mil euros. Assume a profit margin of 15%, and three sales in Q1, so 12 sales in whole of 2014. Equals 60 mill in sales at 15% equals 9 mil Euro profit, or about 7.5 mill pounds. On a p/e of 10 equals mcap of 75, or which is a multiple of about 4.5 over current SP, giving about 20-22p.
Plus the 5tpd units of course [ignored in case 12 large unit sales is too optimistic.]
Even at half these numbers, this is still potentially a good investment, but then I'm not much good at this sort of thing so am probably making a mistake somewhere!
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