I trade shares (I don't short) so yes I do change my opinion based on what I see are the circumstances at the time. I was prepared to give BEM time to issue the jorc and that disappointed me with the poor progress and reaction. I therefore turned negative on BEM for which I don't apologise.
I see no upward movement in the SP, it imho will continue to fall, with another few pence knocked off the SP for good measure. I see today there is another 5.6% fall.
The current management are not capable of delivering full shareholder value because they have made too many mistakes, progress is too slow and I don't trust the CEO.
Directors have refused to exercise options, there is no Director buying and there is currently no incentive for Directors to perform.
Funding is the big issue because the current cash in hand will not deliver shareholder value to the extent it could have.
Macro economics will cripple BEM through lack of easy funding, falling IO prices and lower demand.
I just do not see how this will get back to 15p or even 10p this year.
For all that I am out and will come back when my senses tell me to.
The s*** analogy is a good one because all they have delivered is a big pile of it.
Thank you for your reply. As for missing the point, I can only refer you to my post from yesterday with its numerous caveats and the theory of the admin/intangible assets breakdown. You will note that my views are heavily qualified, yours are unconditional. I do not negate the value of a different view. Indeed, it is supremely ironic that rabid stock promoters are celebrated whatever the price, whereas the Cassandras are vilified, despite being ultimately proven right. My problem is that veering from bipolar opposites within a short time frame, and with unchanged fundamentals, is somewhat suspicious.
I do not concede that there will be an Armageddon-like and heavily dilutive placing. It is conceivable that there MAY be a modest placing but the bulk of the drilling and administration costs, in my view, are enough until 2014. In short, the SP may be an example of scatology but the company is unlikely to be an example of eschatology.
We can argue all day about the drilling costs for that element only but as you should know there is more to the costs than just the drilling. I was looking at what BEM are burning per metre, some of that will be paiod directly to the drilling company, the rest is admin. The admin costs are a mystery because the Company does not disclose its costs to the level of detail that it could. They have tried to hide costs, such as bonus payments, so there is a history of being secretive not frugal and showing no contrition.
The cash burn is very concerning to me at a SP of 7.5. I am very surprised that the 'Rosies' are apathetic to this situation because if I was in CSP's shoes I would be very worried right now.
Look out for the dilution, more Directors options because at the most recent exercise they will want to grant themselves much more at a lower price.
Mr Clive Sinclair-Poulton 2,500,000 at an exercise price of 5p each Dr Jan-Ola Larsson 250,000 at an exercise price of 6p each 350,000 at an exercise price of 7p each
Also watch out for Directors dealings in the next few months. You might see very small purchases made before a share issue, just to give the impression everything is ok. I am sure that happened in Oct 2011.
Ed Taylor had 250,000 options at 6p expiring in June 2012 and he never took them up.
On balance, I feel that my calculations from yesterday are more representative of the drilling costs, not the £900 figure you sought to present. Without knowing the costs of the various regulatory submissions, both are conjecture. I agree with your point that there should be a balance of opinion on every board and consider myself some way from being a BEM cheerleader. Although you make some valid points, the difficulty is that you have a rapid-cycling manic depressive attitude to this stock, depending on your position. One day you can be an over-excited stock fluffer, feverishly littering the board with L2 information and live stock prices in an attempt to accelerate your long. The next day you become a lugubrious, shorting doom monger, carrying around an “end is nigh” poster and shouting at pigeons. This is often reinforced by borderline defamatory comments about CSP, for which you have been previously disciplined by LSE. Your transparency is actually painful to witness. Perhaps employing more guile and artifice would be a better strategy. No matter, you get a song. http://tinyurl.com/9lwn6xu
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