The main issue GRQ is that the holders will swap debt for equity. In the short term that is just a balance sheet transfer but the real damage is that the lower the conversion the more of the company is converted into shares and hence the future value is dilluted accordingly to existing shareholders. That is less of an issue if the overall company is a large pie - but giving away too much too low will reduce your future share of the pie.
I'll own up to a bit of the volume today. I'll be clear I am not the 1m seller - though I wish I had traded some down here on this mini drop - I have had a number of open positions that have been put under a bit of pressure by the latest drop. On balance I have added 250,000 shares today rather than take a loss and effectively rolled over an additional 1m by "mortgaging" some other shares. Done it across a few trades rather than take a loss I'm gambling (as that's what it feels like) that this is near the bottom. I think this one will turn and turn sharply when it does and I agree with Seymore on that - the trading in this thin market is tough - maybe once the other T trades drop off which were anticipating the June results the MM may be more inclined to take it back up. Not seen the shares behaving like this for a while and I don't think its just the general market conditions - the selling down from .80 doesn't make alot of sense unless it is some sort of hedge related trading. I hope (it is getting close to that!) this time we will get a sustained rise and hold onto value. Enjoy the BB while its quiet - some of my other shares the BB have gone mental recently. Great entry price - I wish all my holding was purchased at this level.
I still reckon whole heartily that we will double are Sp easily by the end of September latest. With the Intrim results. If not and I am wrong I will show my arse in wollies window. I will also sell out for good if I am wrong. Never to return. Bet you have heard that before. Lol. Seriously this time. Lol Not one for changing my mind certain. I think.
Buy Re: MMs like it - buying up. Symore Bottoms It seems there is very little slack in the market and that 2m buy pushed up the price (so clearly little overhang). I think you will see some more manipulation in the s/p over the next few weeks running up to the Niko results. Make no doubts, the s/p has been battered to recent lows on little or no news. Infact the confirmation of Phase 1 Varang should have been a big catalyst to the share price, but the Market is behaving illogical and the reverse has happened. We should get some news soon and the one variable which remains open is the conversion of the directors loan, which in my opinion should happen at a premium to the current price otherwise the 4.3bn authorised issuable shares will not be enough to accommodate. Interesting few weeks ahead, me thinks...
It seems the seller is still ensuring we stay range bound. Is it to do with keeping the share price close to the minimum share price at which RPNs can be converted? Could there be another placement due but it needs to happen at around this share pric? Perhaps the institutional investors aren't the sellers and they're just as confused as us. I know it's not supposed to happen, but could the mm's have held long positions expecting a big move on varang confirmation and now they're balancing their books. It's clear the ii's get more info than us mere mortals, so hopefully they're not privvy to bad news and selling out before the rest of us. Is this just mm's playing games and accumulating prior to the good news. I'm running out of theories here... Good job my patience is still in good supply!
I think I been in the share to long. Expecting the sp to be what it should be. With the assets it has. It only got to a decent sp once. I should. Have sliced. But like most I didn't, dam ! Never mind. Not got as many has I did. So no real pressure. You right still annoys me though. The mm's psychological games. Whatever will be, will be. :)
Interesting thing is this. AGR Energy made an equity support offer on July 1st, which gave Tethys around $48 million new financing. Nostrum have come in within just 11 days to place a different and better offer.
This says very loudly that strong regional interest exists, and I repeat the view (shared by many) that behind the scenes a lot of things will be going on. Despite the rather disappointing recent share activity, and the lack of tangible 2015 news, I remain very bullish on this share.
Having said all that I think Nostrum are primarily after the fields outside of Georgia, given their current profile
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