That scenario is created by the spreadbet & cfd players who create a market to be exploited by the companies & their hedge fund allies.
We've seen it before on xel, other AIM stocks & the larger cap.Just look at Lloyds when it was all but guaranteed by the UKG & stocks like Rio have even been exploited in the past.
That's why I've urged others not to play their game on so many occasions, the sb companies know the stop triggers & only need to take the opportunities when they arise, as Friday's vanilla rns, when many expected an update on f/o developments. Sadly, with the financials release date pushed back to the last market day of the month, the clues were in place that an update was unlikely.
I'm only still invested here to see your dance :-)....all about fun-der-mentals, atb
It always amazes me how much the price can shift on what is really a very low percentage of shares traded, Friday under 5 million shares bought and sold, say 3 million sold.....that's around 1 percent of the total shares !! So one percent sell and the price crashes ! forget that the other 97 percent did nothing !
If they have 'refinanced' the loan then they would have either agreed with another lender to pay off the existing loan or renegotiated the terms with the existing one.
Paying off the loan would mean paying the $60M + 14% interest which would result in owing the new lender $68.4M + interest over some agreed period. On the other hand, renegotiating with existing lender could mean we are in for either a partial placing or an increase in interest rate since I doubt any lender would extend the loan for free.
In both cases the repayment date of the loan may be moved into 2014 which would confirm that no financing deal news is coming this year. That would have a pretty negative effect on the sp imho.
The low cash burn means there's no need for the Bod to panic. The sp fun & games may well continue(would be surprised if they didn't...as I've suggested a few times in the past).
In the event of a farmout agreement, the Global warrants could raise some £23m &, if a full bid is agreed, the options could raise even more. Just ask yourself, if Global don't expect a better deal, why don't they take their options at the 120 area we have seen on numerous occasions & bank some £5m profit??..I think we know the reason, those options have some 18 - 20 months before expiry, at present
I've moved my top-up price lower but will otherwise continue to hold.
Rupes & co do. however, need to eventually learn that their over-confidence at times when they meet their shareholders(like Ptp's encounter at the AGM) does them no favours, it undermines their credibility & helps create the herd mentality that we see all too often when they eventually disappoint
Just ask yourself, if you were a major oil company looking to buy a minnow with a strategic asset, would you string them along & play the long game, hoping to build pressure? That stance is fine until other parties turn up
Not expecting significant news in the short term but I remain confident that my patience will eventually be rewarded...GLA
Maybe low 90's again, a lot if the bounce was shorts closing and short term trades , however most people won't be selling any core holdings at this level and there has been some increased exposure by ii's buying at a higher level than this, 90's will probably be bought into strongly so I think the 1.01- 1.08 range is probably where we will end up till the expectation of news kicks in again, with DECC approval likely in next 6 weeks. Cash in the bank is fine for now.
And it formed a major portion of the saturday finance section , with a lot of the positive details muted , but a nice big negative spin at the end saying that no progress had been made in the farm out talks . Looks like a big champagne lunch and ii or trader brown envelopes may be possibly changing hands to help another dick turpin muggingin my opinion from the facts available . I for one will pile in again major major if this bb poster person's chart that shows a drop to 60p or lower actually happens. Looks like excite is going to possibly be played big time by some big players . If you can't beat them , then join them by hanging onto their coat tails and hold on real tight . Don't have any stop losses unles you want to get mugged .
OK then peeps, I've had a look and here's my take.
Much as that video link suggests, you have to treat that weekly close as a major breakdown on the chart and with that in mind, here's the bear take:
If I'm calling Armageddon here on strict TA terms then I'm looking at a previously targeted low of c40p. Now, before you all choke on your muffins, I think the chances of that are Slim and none and Slim left town with that 200mb 1P upgrade. However, I am bound to throw in a caveat here - imo, XEL failing to deliver any kind of deal here, or at the very least some encouraging words, for an extended period of time (certainly more than 3 months away) exposes that 40p shout somewhat more, especially if radio silence drags out to as far as June 2014 but even in those circumstances I still have Slim in the next county :)
More sensible, is a move to high 60s, possibly only intraweek and likely closing the week much higher than that if it does indeed happen.
Much more likely is a move back to c80p and imo, anything at/below there has to be treated as an absolute gift, again, if it does it ...
That's the bear stuff and on strict TA terms, I can get to those prices, however, as usual, it's the fundy stuff that makes each price point more or less likely and you'll have to make your own judgements on that - I have my opinion but I'm just one guy ...
Believe it or not but I do actually have a bull case :)
It's not lost on me that on multiple occasions such weekly spike-downs have been followed by sustained, and sometimes extreme, rises in the SP though it may take a couple of months to kick in. I also take note that it has not beaten the last spike-down at 88.75p - if I choose to see that as a double-bottom then that targets 160s, a known and often targeted SP (and my own shout for a "cr*p deal" being done) ... This MO becomes much more likely with a green (at any closing SP) weekly candle for next week I think ...
FWIW, my balanced take is this:
These guys have an exceptionally attractive proposition, boosted *enormously* by that 200mb 1P and the extra field licences. I agree with Sellhigh re the warrants (and other dirty but necessary deals that had to be done ...) being the major reason for the seeming inability of this share to hold a sustained rise to 130s, however, just because there's a ceiling on the SP at 120s until a deal is done and those goddam warrants can be enforced, does not necessarily mean that this has to plummet in a long term trend. Rather, I suspect it will trade a range that likely doesn't see much over a quid and doesn't see much, if anything, below 90p for a good while with, possibly, some time spent towards 80p ...
Ultimately, whatever you may think about the sharks on the book etc, it's buying and selling pressure that will define the low and high points here and I'm sure I'm not the only one thinking that this as about as close as you can get to a one-way bet at under a quid ...
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