Hi Fatlad, thanks! I guess that gives us some hope, though the sooner AHL reach GLG's more consistent standard of higher returns, the better for all holders.
Not sure about MMs as, IMO, market is neutral. But I'd say you could well be right re the rationale behind some of the bigger sells over past 2 days which brought SP back down. Some of which remain hidden for now in so-called "dark pools".
We know Man are implementing new trading programs, alongside more funds to reduce their reliability on AHL. If they can optimize that process successfully, I'd be very bullish about SP recovering very well by October. I mean that sincerely, not just talking my book as a holder.
Before then though, I expect we may see further downward pressure on SP level.
Hi jackdawwson, AHL up yesterday, 1.0884 to 1.0886, big deal!! not even a nibble. However, it is breaking even over the past 7 weeks so what was today about?
Was it because the mm’s believe AHL is shorting the dollar? Worse still a comparison with the past few days graphs of AHL and gold looks ominously like AHL could be shorting gold. Hope I am wrong as I believe that to be a bit risky. It would, though, be in line with your thinking in that AHL cannot get out of whatever trend it is in soon enough in these turbulent times. Just thinking again, but if the programmers get to use the IF statement a bit more often this share price could shoot up in the latter part of October.
Hi Fatlad, thanks for some VG points! I agree, possibly we see upside tomorrow or soon after, such is the volatility of this SP. But I'm inclined to see further falls in near future, regardless of tomorrow. Agree divi is scant consolation... unless there's a surprise turnaround.
Re my view on AHL, despite EMG trying to reduce reliance on that fund, link in my previous post shows AHL have so far lost all their early gains this month. Annual losses (YTD) increased to significant levels.
One deduction here for recent falls: after decent gains for Nikkei most of last week, that index took a hammering by Friday. Looking at AHL's recent losses, presumably their trend-following algos got caught out again.
Though Nikkei recovered well this morning, it wouldn't surprise me if meantime AHL had by then gone short, so maybe market anticipates they've got caught out yet again.
I say this as a lot of past evidence suggests that those trend-following algos are virtually USELESS in any extreme volatility. AHL have lost overall for 3 out of past 4 years. So this is nothing new. Hence the loss of lucrative clients continues.
Things really have to get better soon if they're to avoid losing even more lucrative clients in future.
Needless to say, I'm more than a little disappointed with AHL & that we couldn't even stay above 90p. Hence letting off some steam. But the market is neutral & merely prices stocks at perceived current worth.
How far we might fall again, I honestly don't know & it seems fairly pointless guessing at this stage. Only consolation here is that I was always prepared to dig in & hold this L/T. In that sense, little has changed.
Hi jackdawwson, Looks like we have lost the divi before we qualify for it, even more as we were that much up this morning. Can’t be due to AHL as weekly performance not due until 5.30pm.
What I have noticed over the past 4 yrs is that when some bad news is predicted for Man the price goes down, then if that news turns out to be accurate then the price goes down again, i.e. a double whammy. On some occasions the news is repeated again, on the likes of Yahoo, and it goes down again. Hence, Man’s price is severely down from what I believe it should be when looking through the past data.
However, I feel that yesterdays price of AHL might even nibble a bit off it’s losses its made over the week. Even so, information I get from the Man site shows AHL has broke even since the end of it’s horrible month of June. (7 weeks or so). Think, to stop its losses is what we were looking for at that time. Add to that GLG has about 80% of it’s funds showing profits and overall doing very well. But where is this info in the price (not forgetting FRM). If GLG & FRM are included by the mm's in Man's price then Man must be only trading at 20p in my opinion.
In that case Man’s price may even go up tomorrow. (Just my thoughts, could be wrong of course).
So far, another disappointing day. Seems that my original view about results being hardly bullish ($5bn client outflows, big divi-cut, AHL losses, Roman auguring caution, et al) was more right than wrong.
Despite market seeing a sentiment-driven temporary spike in SP on interim, on evaluation of the challenges ahead, it now seems overwhelmingly bearish again & gives not a hoot about the paltry divi. Hardly a massive surprise.
Of greater importance is that AHL is again taking losses & looks well out of its depth as soon as market volatility increases:
Looks likely that AHL will be giving back all gains made the previous week which certainly won't have helped matters today - Fairly hefty volume traded today though so it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow considering Ex Divi is 14th.....could the mm be looking to play some games here with people wanting in for the divi? Certainly never dull is it...GLA.
NKOTB, maybe a bit of "fiddling" as you imply. Big player shenanigans par for the course in this game. Also, when future profit guidance isn't clear-cut, which EMG's interim wasn't, not surprising to see sharp swings in sentiment for most stocks. Latter always temporary.
For my money, market can do whatever. I'm convinced these will see well over 100 again in next few months & will only sell one of my 2 tranches at 110+. That's fairly binding, even if we go lower.
Plan is: ride out undulations & focus on bigger rewards later. Even if target isn't reached, most likely it'll still well beat keeping cash in bank for measly interest rates.
FWIW, I also trade other stocks for short-term targets, for eg. MKS, SBRY, VOD, BT.A, et al. So I'm not offering advice on this, only expressing opinion which could be wrong. Maybe it's a mistake not selling one of my tranches that's in profit sooner than later (the other one is underwater as bought at 96.50), but some risk part & parcel in holding/trading any stock.
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