its just 2 cycles, so you shouldnt put your house on it!
I think the stock market changed fundamentally around 1998 because of internet trading. in the old days you had to invest via a stockbroker and it was too much effort. the stockmarket has become much more hazardous since about 1998.
so far the markets seem conformant with the prediction, if it is true then this time its going to be much faster than in the financial crisis.
I'm keeping out of the main market because the FT100 graph is too volatile, and too many plummets of major companies in 2014.
RMG is much safer than the general market,
I had a look at the link from your other post, which is an interesting perspective. Maybe the US shale gas was taking too much money from the saudis and its a price war. the Saudis have to be careful as they are making financial enemies of the US and Russia.
for long term investment, you shouldnt be in a hurry to invest in shares. there are some eras where everything works well, and some when everything goes wrong. sometimes cash is better than shares.
you need to know when cash outdoes shares and sell off everything, pay the CGT, and wait for many months.
Richard, you talk sense! True , 6 & 7 year periods. Though not tested over long periods of time. Taking into account other factors ,yes probably a slump this year. However, previous crashes took some time before prices hit the bottom. If the bottom is this March coming, the pattern would be different this time.
disregarding fundamentals, the pattern is the market low will be in March 2015. the highs have been every 7 years 2000, 2007, 2014?, the lows every 6 years in march: 2003,2009, so the next low would be in March 2015.
that's not a prediction, just a pattern like the santa rally, its something to see whether or not the pattern recurs.
RMG is relatively undervalued, the market is relatively overvalued.
for general investment I'm going to wait till after the general election, the RMG annual results should be a few weeks after the general election.
I may buy some RMG shares in Jan, havent decided yet, will see how things develop.
but I'm not buying any other shares, I enjoy the lack of stress not owning any shares at the moment and am only putting a small amount of time on the stock market.
although RMG has large variance in the short term, I think the long term trend will be gradual, so there is no rush to buy in.
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