If operationally things had gone wrong - eg Drill 37, pipeline capacity, second jig, Varang etc etc then I actually think Cairn would have demanded that FRR inform the market. In some regards the negatives are more important than the positives, and the fact that we have heard absolutely nothing operationally just adds to my view re a third party involvement in the offing
As PFL says a big set piece would make predicting the resultant SP a pure lottery, but you are either in and smiling or out and sad on the day before the RNS,
That's me done for the weekend - everyone enjoy the sun
tbh I think all they have said is be patient news is coming, which doesn't really tell us a lot, cos news will eventually come whatever the case. Just have to remember that frr take twice as long to do owt than they say, permits, pipelines etc etc
Taking past performance into account delays with the cpr's etc is no indication in my mind that things are not happening, they are, just sssslllllooooooowwwwwwwwlllllllyyyyyyyyy !
Love the disclaimer lol It does appear that frr are getting the company in order with the vote debt and other things! Over 2 million quid paid back in four months! It does seem 2015 is gonna be a good year! I also agree that if we had a problem with cpr s etc etc we would have been told! A delay for me is positive - bwtfdik! Let's hope we're right - have a great day
Have to say I have sort of got used to this, and in a positive way. Here's why.
If you work on the basis that hey are in "lock down" mode then there is likely to be a reason. I am absolutely sure in my mind that some form of third party involvement is in the offing - and it explains quite a bit. If there isn't, and it was just the CPRs not being ready, then a straightforward ops update before mid April would simply not have been a problem. They could have easily said the CPRs are just taking longer to finalise and everyone would have accepted this.
The plea in some of the company emails "for patience" fits in with this, and unfortunately you can't ask for this by way of an RNS. Just my view but if there are a load of confidentiality and non disclosure agreements in place then we won't only get any news until a firm outcome is in place. And it also explains the sequence of "due diligence" events - get voting rules tidied up, reduce corporate debt (Dec 31st RNS and the equity swap), and declare up to date notifiable interests. These were all guaranteed to provoke a "why are they doing this" response (and they did), but were clearly necessary in my scenario. It all smacks in my view of FRR and Cairn working through some form of set piece event
It's the "wake up one morning" position in my estimation - and having built a very substantial position here over 5 long years I have bucket loads of patience on this share. (Disclaimer - I could of course be entirely wrong)
I just kinda found the reply to say - you know the crack were telling you nothing as per regulations - but cheers for the vote and we're expecting 2015 to be good and this will be good for the sp!! That said I take everything with a pinch of salt and also understand people on here should be wary of anybody claiming to have had what seems a positive reply!! But personally I am the most bullish I've been in 4 years - just hope I don't have to wait another 4 years!
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