Your posts always gives me confidence with FRR as well as a few other posters on here and the other side.
I have been holding here for some 18 months along with many others whom have held a lot longer, the journey has seemed to have taken forever but in reality is only just getting going at last. i will be top slicing when the opportunity arises , but will be holding some long term for sure.
I would love to see 10p by the end of 2015 just as you say but in reality i am very doubtful in such a sort timeframe it will all depend on the news that we are given .
How ever i think very few people including myself have got any comprehension of how big our resources actually are including having the benefits of it being on land, major gas trunk lines running near our block and having a gas hungry Europe on our doorstep, i to agree with you that a farm in is quite possible if not a certainty given the scope of the challenge , so perhaps a £250 million market cap may not be out of the question.
I think as many do that things are going to get interesting fairly soon.
Oh I understand what you were saying , you were talking about - production. :-))) I'll wager that by the end of the year we'll be well over VOGs production.
So not resources as clearly FRR promises to have a multiple of VOGs, ( I follow both by the way as I follow the entire sector ) . I scan for TA trades , but Property and the O&G sectors have somehow after many years become sectors I understand more . If you follow iii I trade all day and post my trade lives ( well a quarter of them anyway )
We just need patience here . The progress made since gas production kick started was great . The operational RNS of the 30th 2014 has all the data and details .
Should we be treated with the same progress on the next operational update I suspect that the 1.84 high will be smashed .
I am über bullish and a borderline ramper but I challenge anyone to read the Dec 2014 op update and tell me that the additional 9TCF prospect in the Taribani field , ( bringing the total to 20TCFS) , plus the whole list of deliverables promised isn't staggering . The truth is that if they deliver on all , ( and this is just Q1) my 10p target for 2015 is at risk of being bettered.
First in line to be delivered is the well that was being drilled in Jan . That RNS should be upon us any day .
I wish to remind everyone that these drills are only 15 days long plus the time to process data etc . They are only 400m deep on shore . Stuff of dreams to have a field like this in my view .
So that is the first data point > I'd expect the same result as the previous two and am hoping for more data on production . Ie to be told we have around 80,000 cubic metres or around 2.8m cubic feet. Anything more and we are setting ourselves up for a fantastic year . Also at around $250 per 1000 cubic metres, 80k cubic metres is $7.2m annually . Considering that they are working to expand capacity to 7m cubic feet daily just in this Q1 ( or almost 200k cubic metres ) then the capacity revenue is an annual $18m at $250/ 1000 cubic metres.
That is just Q1 and I have not touched the oil part of the business , today Brent is holding that $60 a barrel and even touched $61 .
As Georgia risks a doubling of gas costs and is importing most of its gas, Frontera is clearly going to become more pivotal to the energy policy of the country and hence more under pressure to speed up production etc .
Don't be surprised to see a big farm out or partner pop up when the CPR is released .
Plenty to look forward to but in the meantime we'll hear from all sorts of posters about all sorts of theories .
Stick to the RNS and the Official Georgia oil and gas website .
All the best .
I am clearly long here and my core is at an average of 0.69 .
PFL - all us long termers here from past experience expect delays. I feel one (of several) factor that may be driving SN recent activity is the Ukraine situation. If Ukraine transit becomes an issue and you want to reduce Russian dependence - then building up Georgian gas for Europe makes both Commercial and Geo-political sense. Sometimes like a good joke timing is everything. By accident they may time this very well indeed. Like the Spanish inquisition maybe SN will bring us 3 pieces of good news, well 37, fracking, CPR....no 4 pieces of good news another CPR.....Price action again shows us consolidating in my view very tight actual spread. Push down to .60's less likely that a move up to higher .70's or back to .80 in my view. Great entry price.
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