Not much to drive the sp up very much imo. By the time Grymberg & Cam government are getting their share plus the royalties to the special ones, then more drills, there won't be much for Edna and potty imo. The ii's can see this and so are uninterested
Looking forward to the open of the market on Monday to see which direction VOG goes.
If it goes up then great but if not it is an opportunity to top up.
I suppose it is common sense but I thought I would post my thoughts as to how to value a share and that is you have to look at what is happening now or is just about to happen in the near term and long term future not what has happened in the past.
VOG has certainly had a rocky past with the share price hitting a high of 260p in old money which is the equivalent of 10,400 p in new money and it has hit a low of 0.89p in old money 35.6p in new money i.e. taking account of the recent share consolidation.
The two power stations are going to be using VOG's gas by the end of March 2015 and this Is going to be a game changer for VOG as we will become a utility company.
At long last the market is going to have something to properly value VOG and that is positive cash flow and profits.
The RNS was disappointing in terms of Dangote not even being connected and no news re gas volumes for the three new customers mentioned in a previous RNS but they are not that significant in terms of the two power stations.
There is another power station at the end of VOG's phase three of the pipeline installation so hopefully they will sign up for our gas as well.
I think the potential of the thermal market has been way over estimated as proved by the relatively slow sign up of new customers and relatively low volumes for the majority of our customers but big power is the key to VOG's future success.
Big power is just 4 weeks away so people have to think about whether they want to get of off the train before it even leaves the station or whether they want to stay on a train that is just about to depart for what should hopefully be an enjoyable journey.
So, this is the month when it all happens. I hope that is right but have to remind myself of how many times i, and many more, have said that in the past. If the press, and a few brokers, start to tip them I will be more confident.
Just going back on the RNS , I see we peeked at 5.3 scuffs a day which really is starting to push up the thermals , this month the power stations will be on line this could even be in 2 weeks time , as it`s the dry season the minimum scuffs will be 9 scuffs aday from the power stations ( VOG are saying they will sell more than the 9 ) I would have thought 10 - 12 scuffs a day dry season , my scuffs target dry season is comimg to reality of 17 scuffs a day dry season it could even peek to 18 scuffs aday, Dangote should be on line this month to another 0.5 scuffs a day.they also use gensets in all their factories that would add another 2 scuffs aday , their power house is nearly ready . hense in the rns
In the release of our 2014 Annual Report we quoted our 7 day week July 2014 production of 3.9mmscf/d at GDC. Since then, from August 2014 to January 2015 inclusive, our monthly average daily rate based on a 7 day week has ranged from 3.9 to 4.4mmscf/d. For the same period our monthly average daily rate based on a 5 day working week has ranged from 4.1 to 4.6mmscf/d and the monthly daily peak production rates have ranged from 4.5 to 5.3mmscf/d.
I am proud to report that GDC has substantially completed its scope of work for the ENEO project construction phase and safely built and tested gas pipelines to both stations. We have issued a completion certificate for the Bassa station and expect to complete the Logbaba station within two weeks. The project is scheduled to be online by the end of Q1 2015 and if this is achieved, as we expect, it will represent a remarkable success for the GDC, ENEO and Altaaqa teams. Progressing from signing legally binding terms sheets in late December 2014 to delivering 50MW to the grid approximately three months later is outstanding.
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